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Investigating the intertemporal risk-return relation in international stock markets with the component GARCH model

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Abstract

We revisit the risk-return relation using the component GARCH model and international daily MSCI stock market data. In contrast with the previous evidence obtained from weekly and monthly data, daily data show that the relation is positive in almost all markets and often statistically significant. Likelihood ratio tests reject the standard GARCH model in favor of the component GARCH model, which strengthens the evidence for a positive risk-return tradeoff. Consistent with U.S. evidence, the long-run component of volatility is a more important determinant of the conditional equity premium than the short-run component for most international markets.

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  • Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "Investigating the intertemporal risk-return relation in international stock markets with the component GARCH model," Working Papers 2006-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-006
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Conrad & Karin Loch, 2015. "Anticipating Long‐Term Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1090-1114, November.
    2. Suzanne G. M. Fifield & David G. McMillan & Fiona J. McMillan, 2020. "Is there a risk and return relation?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 1075-1101, July.
    3. Kim Liow & Muhammad Ibrahim, 2010. "Volatility Decomposition and Correlation in International Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 221-243, February.
    4. Li, Dandan & Ghoshray, Atanu & Morley, Bruce, 2012. "Measuring the risk premium in uncovered interest parity using the component GARCH-M model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 167-176.
    5. John Cotter & Enrique Salvador, 2014. "The non-linear trade-off between return and risk: a regime-switching multi-factor framework," Papers 1410.6005, arXiv.org.
    6. Bachar Fakhry & Christian Richter, 2018. "Does the Federal Constitutional Court Ruling Mean the German Financial Market is Efficient?," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 4(2), pages 111-125.
    7. Angelos Kanas, 2013. "The risk-return relation and VIX: evidence from the S&P 500," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1291-1314, June.
    8. Łukasz Kwiatkowski, 2011. "Bayesian Analysis of a Regime Switching In-Mean Effect for the Polish Stock Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 187-219, December.
    9. Angelos Kanas, 2014. "Uncovering a positive risk-return relation: the role of implied volatility index," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 159-170, January.
    10. Haibin Xie & Shouyang Wang, 2015. "Risk-return trade-off, information diffusion, and U.S. stock market predictability," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(04), pages 1-20, December.
    11. Salvador, Enrique & Floros, Christos & Arago, Vicent, 2014. "Re-examining the risk–return relationship in Europe: Linear or non-linear trade-off?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 60-77.
    12. Lorraine Muguto & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of the Nature of Stock Return Volatility in BRICS and G7 Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, February.
    13. Iliyasu, Jamilu & Rafindadi Sanusi, Aliyu & Suleiman, Dahiru, 2019. "Testing For Multiple Bubble Episodes In Nigerian Stock Exchange Market," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 6(6), pages 13-26, June.
    14. Yufeng Han, 2011. "On the relation between the market risk premium and market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(22), pages 1711-1723.
    15. Nektarios Aslanidis & Charlotte Christiansen & Christos S. Savva, 2021. "Quantile Risk–Return Trade-Off," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, June.
    16. Pithak Srisuksai, 2012. "Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns: Evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 19(2), pages 66-89, December.
    17. Andrew Harvey & Rutger-Jan Lange, 2015. "Modeling the Interactions between Volatility and Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Kanas, Angelos, 2012. "Modelling the risk–return relation for the S&P 100: The role of VIX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 795-809.
    19. Thuy Thi Thu Truong & Jungmu Kim, 2019. "Premiums for Non-Sustainable and Sustainable Components of Market Volatility: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-15, September.
    20. Chyi Lin Lee, 2017. "An examination of the risk-return relation in the Australian housing market," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(3), pages 431-449, June.
    21. Chen, Rongda & Bao, Weiwei & Jin, Chenglu, 2021. "Investor sentiment and predictability for volatility on energy futures Markets: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 112-129.
    22. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2011. "On the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: New Evidence," MPRA Paper 45583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Christian Brownlees & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Alice Monti, 2018. "Evaluating The Accuracy Of Tail Risk Forecasts For Systemic Risk Measurement," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-25, June.
    24. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2017. "Volatility Clustering, Leverage Effects and Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Selected Stock Markets in the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 37-53, September.
    25. Mohanty, Roshni & P, Srinivasan, 2014. "The Time-Varying Risk and Return Trade Off in Indian Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 55660, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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