The risk-return relation and VIX: evidence from the S&P 500
AbstractA significantly positive risk-return relation for the S&P 500 market index is detected if the squared implied volatility index (VIX) is allowed for as an exogenous variable in the conditional variance equation of the parsimonious GARCH(1,1) model. This result holds for both daily and weekly observations, for extended conditional mean and variance specifications, and is robust to sub-samples. We show that the conditional variance obtained from the GARCH model with VIX has better predictive ability for realized volatility than the conditional variance from GARCH without VIX and VIX itself, thereby documenting an important information content of VIX for conditional variance. The results are interpreted as evidence that adding VIX squared in the conditional variance equation yields a better measure of conditional variance which, subsequently, uncovers a strong risk-return relation. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.
Volume (Year): 44 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
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- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
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