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Uncertainty determinants of firm investment

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  • Baum, Christopher F.
  • Caglayan, Mustafa
  • Talavera, Oleksandr

Abstract

We investigate the impact of measures of uncertainty on firms' capital investment behavior using a panel of U.S. firms. Increases in firm-specific and CAPM-based measures have a significant negative effect on investment spending, while market-based uncertainty has a positive impact.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 98 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 282-287

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:98:y:2008:i:3:p:282-287

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  1. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
  2. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2001. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K. Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 648-662, June.
  4. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Saltari, Enrico, 2001. "Investment and uncertainty: is there a potential role for a common European policy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 61-65, July.
  5. Michael Salinger & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Tax Reform and Corporate Investment: A Microeconometric Simulation Study," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 247-288 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "Uncertainty and investment: an empirical investigation using data on analysts' profits forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
  8. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
  9. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February.
  10. Brainard, William C. & Shoven, John B., 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 4, pages 43-104.
  11. Henley, Andrew & Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andy, 2003. "Industry-wide versus firm-specific uncertainty and investment: British company panel data evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 87-92, January.
  12. Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  13. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 217-28, June.
  14. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Vasia Panousi & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2011. "Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Francesco Aiello & Alfonsina Iona & Leone Leonida, 2012. "Regional infrastructure and firm investment: theory and empirical evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 835-862, June.
  3. Claudiu Botoc & Cosmin Enache, 2013. "Underinvestment Problem: Romanian Evidence," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(15), pages 20.
  4. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm-Level Investment," MPRA Paper 51277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2008. "On the Investment Sensitivity of Debt under Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 686, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Toole, Andrew A. & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2008. "The R&D Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: Do Competition and Firm Size Matter?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-013, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

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