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Tax Reform and Corporate Investment: A Microeconometric Simulation Study

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Author Info
Michael A. Salinger
Lawrence H. Summers

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Abstract

This paper develops a methodology for simulating the effects of alternative corporate tax reforms on the stock market valuation and investment plans of individual firms. The methods are applied to estimate the effects of alternative corporate tax reforms on the 30 Dow Jones companies. The estimates are all based on extensions of Tobin's "q Theory of Investment" to take account of the effects of tax policy. As well as providing the basis for the estimates of the effects of tax policy, the results here provide strong microeconometric support for the q theory of investment. The q theory approach provides a superior method for estimating the effects of investment incentives because it recognizes the effects of changes in the cost of capital on the desired level of output. The results suggest that some potential tax reforms could have potent effects, which vary widely among firms. For example, complete indexation of the tax system would raise the Dow Jones average by an estimated 7.6 percent. The variance among companies is substantial with the effect ranging from -13 percent for Sears to 20 percent for American Brands.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0757.

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Date of creation: Aug 1984
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0757

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1996. "Tax Reforms and Investment: A Cross-Country Comparison," NBER Working Papers 5232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Peter J. Elmer & Patric H. Hendershott, 1984. "Relative Factor Price Changes and Equity Prices," NBER Working Papers 1449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Klaus Gugler, 2003. "Corporate governance and investment," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 261-289, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert E. Carpenter, 1994. "Finance Constraints or Free Cash Flow? The Impact of Asymmetric Information on Investment," Finance 9401001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Dividend Taxes, Corporate Investment, and "Q"," NBER Working Papers 0829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Katsuya Takii, 2004. "Prediction Ability and Investment under Uncertainty," Industrial Organization 0406005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2003. "A Revealed Preference Approach. To Understanding Corporate Governance Problems: Evidence From Canada," Economics Series 135, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jason G. Cummins & Trevor S. Harris & Kevin A. Hassett, 1994. "Accounting Standards, Information Flow, and Firm Investment Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Missaka Warusawitharana, 2007. "Corporate asset purchases and sales: theory and evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Ángel Estrada & Javier Vallés, 1998. "Investment and financial structure in Spanish manufacturing firms," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(3), pages 337-359, September. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ignacio Hernando & Javier Valles, 1994. "Algunas diferencias en la productividad de las empresas manufactureras españolas," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 18(1), pages 117-141, January. [Downloadable!]
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