Starting an R&D project under uncertainty
AbstractWe study a two-stage R&D project with an abandonment option. Two types of uncertainty influence the decision to start R&D. Demand uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a proportional increase and decrease in demand. Technical uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a decrease and increase in the cost to continue R&D. We relate differences in uncertainty to differences in risk premia. We deduct testable hypotheses on the basis of which we empirically analyze the impact of uncertainty on the decision to start an R&D project. Using data for about 4000 German firms in manufacturing and services (CIS IV), our model predictions are strongly confirmed.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2009036.
Date of creation: 01 May 2009
Date of revision:
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investment under uncertainty; R&D; demand uncertainty; technical uncertainty; entry threat;
Other versions of this item:
- Sabien Dobbelaere & Roland Iwan Luttens & Bettina Peters, 2009. "Starting an R&D Project under Uncertainty," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-044/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- S. Dobbelaere & R. I. Luttens & B. Peters, 2009. "Starting an R&D project under uncertainty," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/585, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Sabien Dobbelaere & Roland Iwan Luttens & Bettina Peters, 2008. "Starting an R&D Project under Uncertainty," DRUID Working Papers 08-09, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
- D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
- O31 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-03-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-INO-2010-03-28 (Innovation)
- NEP-PPM-2010-03-28 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-TID-2010-03-28 (Technology & Industrial Dynamics)
- NEP-UPT-2010-03-28 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
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