This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Starting an R&D project under uncertainty

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
S. DOBBELAERE
R. I. LUTTENS ()
B. PETERS

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We study a two-stage R&D project with an abandonment option. Two types of uncertainty influence the decision to start R&D. Demand uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a proportional increase and decrease in demand. Technical uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a decrease and increase in the cost to continue R&D. We relate differences in uncertainty to differences in risk premia. We deduct testable hypotheses on the basis of which we empirically analyze the impact of uncertainty on the decision to start an R&D project. Using data for about 4000 German firms in manufacturing and services (CIS IV), our model predictions are strongly confirmed.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.FEB.UGent.be/nl/Ondz/wp/Papers/wp_09_585.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 09/585.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:09/585

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Hoveniersberg 4, B-9000 Gent
Phone: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 34 61
Fax: ++ 32 (0) 9 264 35 92
Web page: http://www.feb.ugent.be/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Nathalie Verhaeghe).

Related research
Keywords: Investment under uncertainty; R&D; demand uncertainty; technical uncertainty; entry threat;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
O31 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lukach, R. & Kort, P.M. & Plasmans, J., 2007. "Optimal R&D investment strategies under the threat of new technology entry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 103-119, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Huizinga, 1993. "Inflation uncertainty, relative price uncertainty, and investment in U.S. manufacturing," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 521-557.
  3. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
    Other versions:
  4. Huizinga, John, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 521-49, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Pindyck, Robert S., 1993. "Investments of uncertain cost," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 53-76, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Henley, Andrew & Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andy, 2003. "Industry-wide versus firm-specific uncertainty and investment: British company panel data evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 87-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Dasgupta, Partha & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1980. "Industrial Structure and the Nature of Innovative Activity," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 266-93, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2), pages 217-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? It is the publishers that input data about their publications, as there is no staff at RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.