IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/revfec/v12y2003i2p191-205.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Perry Sadorsky

Abstract

Stock prices reflect the value of anticipated future profits of companies. Since business cycle conditions impact the future profitability of firms, expectations about the business cycle will affect the current value of firms. This paper uses daily and monthly data from July 1986 to December 2000 to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of US technology stock price conditional volatility. Technology share prices are measured using the Pacific Stock Exchange Technology 100 Index. One of the novel features of this paper is to incorporate a link between technology stock price movements and oil price movements. The empirical results indicate that the conditional volatilities of oil prices, the term premium, and the consumer price index each have a significant impact on the conditional volatility of technology stock prices. Conditional volatilities calculated using daily stock return data display more persistence than conditional volatilities calculated using monthly data. These results further our understanding of the interaction between oil prices and technology share prices and should be of use to investors, hedgers, managers, and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Perry Sadorsky, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:12:y:2003:i:2:p:191-205
    DOI: 10.1016/S1058-3300(02)00071-X
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1058-3300(02)00071-X
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/S1058-3300(02)00071-X?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kramer, Charles, 1994. "Macroeconomic Seasonality and the January Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1883-1891, December.
    2. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    3. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    4. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    5. Perry Sadorsky, 2001. "Broken trend output in a model of stock returns and economic activity," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 17-21.
    6. Mustafa Gultekin & Bulent Gultekin, "undated". "Stock Market Seasonality: Internal Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 17-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
    8. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    9. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    10. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    11. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    12. Kearney, Colm, 2000. "The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 31-52.
    13. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. "Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-1972, December.
    14. Darrat, Ali F & Brocato, Joe, 1994. "Stock Market Efficiency and the Federal Budget Deficit: Another Anomaly?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 49-75, February.
    15. Roger D. Huang & Ronald W. Masulis & Hans R. Stoll, 1996. "Energy shocks and financial markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, February.
    16. Gultekin, Mustafa N. & Gultekin, N. Bulent, 1983. "Stock market seasonality : International Evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 469-481, December.
    17. Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
    18. Christie, Andrew A., 1982. "The stochastic behavior of common stock variances : Value, leverage and interest rate effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 407-432, December.
    19. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    20. Officer, R R, 1973. "The Variability of the Market Factor of the New York Stock Exchange," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 434-453, July.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    22. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    23. Colm Kearney & Kevin Daly, 1998. "The causes of stock market volatility in Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 597-605.
    24. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    25. Koutoulas, George & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 1996. "Macrofactor Conditional Volatilities, Time-Varying Risk Premia and Stock Return Behavior," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(1), pages 169-195, February.
    26. Darrat, Ali F & Gilley, Otis W & Meyer, Don J, 1996. "US Oil Consumption, Oil Prices, and the Macroeconomy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 317-334.
    27. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
    28. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    29. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yadav, Miklesh Prasad & Sharif, Taimur & Ashok, Shruti & Dhingra, Deepika & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Investigating volatility spillover of energy commodities in the context of the Chinese and European stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    3. Jungho Baek, 2023. "Oil Prices, World Trade Policy Uncertainty, and the Trade Balance: The Case of Korea," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-13, June.
    4. Salles, Andre Assis de & Maria Eduarda, Silva & Paulo, Teles, 2022. "Empirical Evidence of Associations and Similarities between the National Equity Markets Indexes and Crude Oil Prices in the International Market," MPRA Paper 113589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Akinseye, Ademola B. & Ogunbowale, Gideon O., 2022. "Oil and multinational technology stocks: Predicting fear with fear at the first and higher order moments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    6. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2022. "The quantile dependence of the stock returns of “clean” and “dirty” firms on oil demand and supply shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    7. Balli, Faruk & O Balli, Hatice & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: What about the effects of firm's solvency and profitability positions?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    2. Colm Kearney & Kevin Daly, 1998. "The causes of stock market volatility in Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 597-605.
    3. Syed Kamran Ali Haider & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Ishtiaq Ahmed, 2017. "Systematic Risk Factors And Stock Return Volatility," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 11(1-2), September.
    4. John Ammer & Jianping Mei, 1995. "Strategic returns to international diversification: An application to the equity markets of Europe, Japan and North America," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(1), pages 49-59, March.
    5. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    6. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
    7. Kearney, Colm, 2000. "The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 31-52.
    8. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Oil price asymmetric effects: Answering the puzzle in international stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 136-145.
    9. Ammer, John & Mei, Jianping, 1996. "Measuring International Economic Linkages with Stock Market Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1743-1763, December.
    10. Kearney, Colm & Daly, Kevin, 1997. "Monetary volatility and real output volatility: An empirical model of the financial transmission mechanism in Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 77-95.
    11. Sunil K. Mohanty & Joseph Onochie & Abdulrahman F. Alshehri, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on stock market returns in Saudi Arabia: evidence from industry level analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 595-619, October.
    12. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2005. "There is a risk-return trade-off after all," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 509-548, June.
    13. Daly, Kevin, 2008. "Financial volatility: Issues and measuring techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2377-2393.
    14. Smith, L. Vanessa & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "Firm level return–volatility analysis using dynamic panels," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 847-867.
    15. Kia, Amir, 2003. "Rational speculators and equity volatility as a measure of ex ante risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-157, July.
    16. Fatema Alaali, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: Evidence from UK Firms," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 418-432.
    17. Alaali, Fatema, 2017. "Analysing the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Prices: evidence from UK firms," MPRA Paper 78013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    19. Wu, Shue-Jen, 2023. "The role of the past long-run oil price changes in stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 274-291.
    20. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3060-3070.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:revfec:v:12:y:2003:i:2:p:191-205. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1873-5924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.