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Stock Returns and Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets

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  • Jaeun Shin

    (KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Korea)

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    Abstract

    Both parametric and semiparametric GARCH in mean estimations find a positive but insignificant relationship between expected stock returns and volatility in emerging stock markets. The 1997¡V1998 global emerging market crisis seems to induce changes in GARCH parameters.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan in its journal International Journal of Business and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 4 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 1 (April)
    Pages: 31-43

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    Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:4:y:2005:i:1:p:31-43

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    Related research

    Keywords: emerging markets; stock returns; volatility; semiparametric GARCH;

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    References

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    1. Giorgio De Santis & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 1994. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    2. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    3. Geert Bekaert & Guojun Wu, 1997. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
    5. Steven B. Kamin, 1999. "The current international financial crisis: how much is new?," International Finance Discussion Papers 636, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    7. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1996. "Stock market volatility and the crash of 1987: evidence from six emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 969-981, December.
    8. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
    9. Baillie, Richard T. & DeGennaro, Ramon P., 1990. "Stock Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(02), pages 203-214, June.
    10. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
    12. Wu, Guojun, 2001. "The Determinants of Asymmetric Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 837-59.
    13. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    14. Kamin, Steven B., 1999. "The current international financial crisis:: how much is new?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 501-514, August.
    15. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
    16. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Majumder, Debasish, 2012. "When the market becomes inefficient: Comparing BRIC markets with markets in the USA," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 84-92.
    2. Jie Zhu, 2008. "Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components," CREATES Research Papers 2008-14, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    3. Kovačić, Zlatko, 2007. "Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange," MPRA Paper 5319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lumengo Bonga-Bonga & Jamela Hoveni, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers between the Equity Market and Foreign Exchange Market in South Africa," Working Papers 252, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Mohanty, Roshni & P, Srinivasan, 2014. "The Time-Varying Risk and Return Trade Off in Indian Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 55660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Sabur Mollah & Asma Mobarek, 2009. "Market volatility across countries – evidence from international markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 257-274, October.
    7. Jamshed Y. Uppal & Inayat U. Mangla, 2006. "Regulatory Response to Market Volatility and Manipulation: A Case Study of Mumbai and Karachi Stock Exchanges," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 11(2), pages 79-105, Jul-Dec.
    8. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2011. "On the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: New Evidence," MPRA Paper 45583, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.
    10. Majumder, Debasish, 2014. "Asset pricing for inefficient markets: Evidence from China and India," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 282-291.

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