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Cromwell's Rule and the Role of the Prior in the Economic Metric: An Application to the Portfolio Allocation Problem

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  • Roskelley, Kenneth D.
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    Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2008)
    Issue (Month): (April)
    Pages: 227-236

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    Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:26:y:2008:p:227-236

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    1. Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov & Shu Yan, 2004. "On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 937-966, October.
    2. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," NBER Working Papers 9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Foster, F Douglas & Smith, Tom & Whaley, Robert E, 1997. " Assessing Goodness-of-Fit of Asset Pricing Models: The Distribution of the Maximal R-Squared," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 591-607, June.
    5. Lubo Pástor, . "Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models," CRSP working papers 356, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    6. Brennan, Michael J & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Assessing Asset Pricing Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 905-42.
    7. Frost, Peter A. & Savarino, James E., 1986. "An Empirical Bayes Approach to Efficient Portfolio Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 293-305, September.
    8. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2004. "Data-generating process uncertainty: What difference does it make in portfolio decisions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 385-421, May.
    9. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Comparing Asset Pricing Models: An Investment Perspective," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 16-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    10. Jorion, Philippe, 1991. "Bayesian and CAPM estimators of the means: Implications for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 717-727, June.
    11. Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1996. " On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 385-424, June.
    12. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    13. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(03), pages 279-292, September.
    14. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    15. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Zhou, Guofu, 1996. "Temporary Components of Stock Returns: What Do the Data Tell Us?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1033-59.
    17. Poirier, Dale J, 1988. "Frequentist and Subjectivist Perspectives on the Problems of Model Building in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 121-44, Winter.
    18. Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic's View," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207, April.
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