IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login

Citations for "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process"

by Gray, Stephen F.

For a complete description of this item, click here. For a RSS feed for citations of this item, click here.
as in new window

  1. Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Pigorsch, Uta & Rotfuß, Waldemar, 2013. "Nonlinearity in cap-and-trade systems: The EUA price and its fundamentals," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-001 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  2. Luc, BAUWENS & Arie, PREMINGER & Jeroen, ROMBOUTS, 2006. "Regime switching GARCH models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  3. Louis Eeckhoudt & Harris Schlesinger, 2008. "Changes in Risk and the Demand for Saving," CESifo Working Paper Series 2388, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Lubrano, Michel, 2004. "Modélisation bayésienne non linéaire du taux d’intérêt de court terme américain : l’aide des outils non paramétriques," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(2), pages 465-499, Juin-Sept.
  5. Catão, Luis A. V. & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Country and Industry Dynamics in Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 4368, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
  7. Denis Pelletier, 2004. "Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 230, Econometric Society.
  8. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2010. "Regime switching correlation hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2728-2741, November.
  9. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
  10. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: The Multi-State Markov-Switching Model with Smoothing," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-115, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
  11. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2007. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haitao & Zhao, Feng, 2007. "Can the random walk model be beaten in out-of-sample density forecasts? Evidence from intraday foreign exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 736-776, December.
  13. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  14. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3125-3144, October.
  16. Christopher S. Jones, 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 793-843, July.
  17. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "On the predictability of common risk factors in the US and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from non-linear and linear models," Discussion Paper Series 2005_9, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Sep 2005.
  18. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "How to evaluate an Early Warning System ?," Working Papers halshs-00450050, HAL.
  19. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
  20. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337.
  21. Massimo Guidolin & Sadayuki Ono, 2005. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Working Papers 2005-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  22. Javier Gil-Bazo & Gonzalo Rubio, 2001. "A Nonparametric Dimension Test Of The Term Structure," Business Economics Working Papers wb012106, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  23. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Reconnecting the Markov Switching Model with Economic Fundamentals," Working Papers 2004:4, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 18 Mar 2004.
  24. Ravi Bansal & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2004. "Regime Shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 396-409, October.
  25. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Bin Xiao, 2007. "A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown," Discussion Papers 07/06, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  26. BAUWENS, Luc & PREMINGER, Arie & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V.K., 2007. "Theory and inference for a Markov switching GARCH model," CORE Discussion Papers 2007055, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  27. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan G, 2007. "Forecasts of US Short-term Interest Rates: A Flexible Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2010. "Time-varying integration, interdependence and contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 791-818, September.
  29. Michael Funke & Roberta Colavecchio, 2009. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific onshore and offshore currency forwards markets," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20903, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  30. Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
  31. Ahrens, R., 2002. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: a multicountry regime-switching analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 519-537, August.
  32. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "How Costly is it to Ignore Breaks when Forecasting the Direction of a Time Series?," CESifo Working Paper Series 875, CESifo Group Munich.
  33. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working Papers 2007-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  34. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
  35. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher, 2003. "Regime-Switching and the Estimation of Multifractal Processes," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1999, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  36. Michael J. Dueker & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2006. "Contemporaneous threshold autoregressive models: estimation, testing and forecasting," Working Papers 2003-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  37. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
  38. Constantin Mellios, 2001. "Valuation of Interest Rate Options in a Two-Factor Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rate," Working Papers 2001-1, Laboratoire Orléanais de Gestion - université d'Orléans.
  39. Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
  40. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Jalal, Amine & Rockinger, Michael, 2008. "Predicting tail-related risk measures: The consequences of using GARCH filters for non-GARCH data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 868-877, December.
  42. PeterTillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 53, Society for Computational Economics.
  43. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
  44. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2005. "The Recent Shift in Term Structure Behavior from a No-Arbitrage Macro-Finance Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 3, Society for Computational Economics.
  45. Giuseppe Storti & Luc Bauwens, 2006. "A component GARCH model with time varying weights," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 388, Society for Computational Economics.
  46. Wajih Khallouli & Modibo René Sandretto, 2010. "Testing for “contagion” of the subprime crisis on the Middle East and North African stock markets : A Markov Switching EGARCH approach," Working Papers 1022, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  47. Liu, Xiaochun, 2013. "Markov-Switching Quantile Autoregression," MPRA Paper 55800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Bao, Jianhai & Yuan, Chenggui, 2013. "Long-term behavior of stochastic interest rate models with jumps and memory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 266-272.
  49. Ilias Lekkos & Costas Milas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2006. "Forecasting interest rate swap spreads using domestic and international risk factors: Evidence from linear and non-linear models," Discussion Paper Series 2006_6, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Mar 2006.
  50. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  51. Jondeau, E. & Rockinger, M., 2000. "Conditional Volatility, Skewness, and Kurtosis: Existence and Persistence," Working papers 77, Banque de France.
  52. Brandner, Peter & Grech, Harald & Stix, Helmut, 2006. "The effectiveness of central bank intervention in the EMS: The post 1993 experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 580-597, June.
  53. Holmes, Mark J. & Dutu, Richard & Cui, Xiaoman, 2009. "Real interest rates, inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 351-360, March.
  54. Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard & Lin, Edward M.H., 2008. "Volatility forecasting using threshold heteroskedastic models of the intra-day range," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 2990-3010, February.
  55. El Bouhadi, Abdelhamid & Achibane, Khalid, 2009. "The Predictive Power of Conditional Models: What Lessons to Draw with Financial Crisis in the Case of Pre-Emerging Capital Markets?," MPRA Paper 19482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Peter Tillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 26, Econometric Society.
  57. Li, Ming-Yuan Leon, 2009. "Could the jump diffusion technique enhance the effectiveness of futures hedging models?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(10), pages 3076-3088.
  58. Hong, Yongmiao & Li, Haitao, 2002. "Nonparametric specification testing for continuous-time models with application to spot interest rates," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,32, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  59. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  60. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2002. "Regime Switching in the Yield Curve," Finance Working Papers 02-13, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  61. Chao-Chun Chen & Wen-Jen Tsay, 2007. "Estimating Markov-Switching ARMA Models with Extended Algorithms of Hamilton," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 07-A009, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
  62. Michael McAller & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2007. "A multiple regime smooth transition heterogeneous autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Textos para discussão 544, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  63. Yang K. Lu & Pierre Perron, 2008. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Return Volatility Using a Random Level Shift Model," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  64. Max Meulemann & Martin Uebele & Bernd Wilfling, 2012. "The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-251, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  65. Lee, Hsiang-Tai & Tsang, Wei-Lun, 2011. "Cross hedging single stock with American Depositary Receipt and stock index futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 146-157, September.
  66. Greg Duffee, 2005. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 103, Society for Computational Economics.
  67. John M. Maheu & Tom McCurdy, 2000. "Volatility Dynamics Under Duration-Dependent Mixing," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1427, Econometric Society.
  68. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "A note on the predictability of excess bond returns and regime shifts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 101-109, June.
  69. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
  70. Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  71. Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22.
  72. Nicolas Merener, 2009. "Swap Rate Variance Swaps," Business School Working Papers 2009-02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  73. Macedo, Jorge Braga de & Braz, José & Pereira, Luis brites & Nunes, Luis C., 2006. "Exchange market pressure and the credibility of Macau's currency Board," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp492, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  74. Emese Lazar & Carol Alexander, 2006. "Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 307-336.
  75. Chesnay, F. & Jondeau, E., 2000. "Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Period?," Working papers 73, Banque de France.
  76. Ane, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2006. "Stock market dynamics in a regime-switching asymmetric power GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 109-129.
  77. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2003. "Fixed-income pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1207-1246 Elsevier.
  78. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
  79. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2010. "House price dynamics, conditional higher-order moments, and density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1029-1039, September.
  80. Medhat Hassanein & Islam Azzam, 2010. "Ex post and ex ante returns and risks under different maturities of treasury bonds: evidence from developed and emerging markets," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 103-118.
  81. Liu, Ji-Chun, 2012. "Structure of a double autoregressive process driven by a hidden Markov chain," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1468-1473.
  82. Bohl, Martin T. & Brzeszczynski, Janusz & Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Institutional investors and stock returns volatility: Empirical evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 170-182, June.
  83. Miao, Daniel Wei-Chung & Wu, Chun-Chou & Su, Yi-Kai, 2013. "Regime-switching in volatility and correlation structure using range-based models with Markov-switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 87-93.
  84. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "Choosing information variables for transition probabilities in a time-varying transition probability Markov switching model," Research Working Paper 98-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  85. Daouk, Hazem & Guo, Jie Qun, 2003. "Switching Asymmetric GARCH and Options on a Volatility Index," Working Papers 127187, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  86. Dennis Philip & Chihwa Kao & Giovanni Urga, 2007. "Testing for Instability in Factor Structure of Yield Curves," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 96, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  87. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2008. "Level-ARCH short rate models with regime switching: Bivariate modeling of US and European short rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 925-948, December.
  88. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2001. "How accurate are Value-at-Risk models at commercial banks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  89. Lundblad, Christian, 2007. "The risk return tradeoff in the long run: 1836-2003," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 123-150, July.
  90. Chew Lian Chua & Sandy Suardi, 2005. "Is There a Unit Root in East-Asian Short-Term Interest Rates?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2005n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  91. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  92. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  93. Yongmiao Hong & Hai Lin & Shouyang Wang, 2013. "Modeling the Dynamics of Chinese Spot Interest Rates," Papers 2013-10-14, Working Paper.
  94. Fukuda, Kosei, 2009. "Distribution switching in financial time series," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(5), pages 1711-1720.
  95. Augustyniak, Maciej, 2014. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the Markov-switching GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 61-75.
  96. Phoebe Koundouri & Ben Groom, . "Sustainability and the Economics of the Environment: Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Dynamics of the Long-Run Discount Rate," DEOS Working Papers 0903, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  97. Abdul Rashid & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan, 2013. "Does Energy Consumption Volatility Affect Real GDP Volatility? An Empirical Analysis for the UK," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 384 - 394.
  98. Diether Beuermann & Antonios Antoniou & Alejandro Bernales, 2005. "The Dynamics of the Short-Term Interest Rate in the UK," Finance 0512029, EconWPA.
  99. Ahrens, Ralf & Reitz, Stefan, 2003. "Heterogeneous Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market Evidence from the Daily Dollar/DM Exchange Rate," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  100. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "Should Stock Market Indexes Time Varying Correlations Be Taken Into Account? A Conditional Variance Multivariate Approach," Econometrics 0307004, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003.
  101. Luc Luc & Arnaud Dufays & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2011. "Marginal Likelihood for Markov-switching and Change-point Garch Models," CREATES Research Papers 2011-41, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  102. Zhongfang He & John M. Maheu, 2009. "Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models," Working Paper Series 11_09, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2009.
  103. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Working Papers 0040, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  104. LUBRANO, Michel, 2000. "Bayesian non-linear modellings of the short term US interest rate: the help of non-parametric tools," CORE Discussion Papers 2000038, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  105. Ardia, David, 2007. "Bayesian Estimation of a Markov-Switching Threshold Asymmetric GARCH Model with Student-t Innovations," DQE Working Papers 6, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland, revised 08 Jul 2008.
  106. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
  107. Huang, Alex YiHou & Peng, Sheng-Pen & Li, Fangjhy & Ke, Ching-Jie, 2011. "Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 591-606, October.
  108. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Forecasting interest rates," Economics Working Paper Archive 599, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  109. Fu, Jun & Wei, Jiaqin & Yang, Hailiang, 2014. "Portfolio optimization in a regime-switching market with derivatives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 184-192.
  110. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Jacobs, Kris, 2008. "Is long memory necessary? An empirical investigation of nonnegative interest rate processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 567-581, June.
  111. Carlos Bautista, 2005. "How volatile are East Asian stocks during high volatility periods?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 319-326.
  112. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "A Regime Switching Macro-finance Model of the Term Structure," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0901, Nanyang Technological University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  113. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Yu, Shih-Ti, 2013. "Does crude oil price play an important role in explaining stock return behavior?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 159-168.
  114. Luc, BAUWENS & C.M., HAFNER & J.V.K., ROMBOUTS, 2006. "Multivariate mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006007, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  115. Colavecchio , Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2007. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  116. Henry, Ólan T., 2009. "Regime switching in the relationship between equity returns and short-term interest rates in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-414, February.
  117. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "The Contagion Effect Between the Volatilities of the NASDAQ-100 and the IT.CA :A Univariate and A Bivariate Switching Approach," Econometrics 0307002, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003.
  118. Gregory R. Duffee, 2012. "Bond pricing and the macroeconomy," Economics Working Paper Archive 598, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  119. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
  120. Michel Beine & Sébastien Laurent, 2000. "Structural change and long memory in volatility: new evidence from daily exchange rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10473, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  121. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Papers 2013-10-14, Working Paper.
  122. Giorgio Canarella & WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Is the Great Moderation Ending? UK and US Evidence," Working Papers 0801, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  123. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
  124. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  125. Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Volatility regime-switching in European exchange rates prior to monetary unification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 240-270, March.
  126. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  127. Dinghai Xu & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2008. "An Empirical Characteristic Function Approach to VaR under a Mixture of Normal Distribution with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Papers 08008, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics.
  128. Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  129. Hoi Wong & Tsz Wong, 2007. "Reduced-form Models with Regime Switching: An Empirical Analysis for Corporate Bonds," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 229-253, September.
  130. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sang-Kuck Chung, 2011. "A Long Memory Model with Normal Mixture GARCH," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 517-539, November.
  131. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Susmel, Raul, 2004. "Regime-switching stochastic volatility and short-term interest rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 309-329, June.
  132. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2001. "Long Maturity Forward Rates," Finance Working Papers 01-12, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  133. Francisco Peñaranda, 2003. "Evaluation of joint density forecasts of stock and bond returns: predictability and parameter uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  134. Francesco Audrino & Enrico De Giorgi, 0. "Beta Regimes for the Yield Curve," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(3), pages 456-490.
  135. Cai, Zongwu & Hong, Yongmiao, 2003. "Nonparametric Methods in Continuous-Time Finance: A Selective Review," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,15, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  136. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
  137. Teräsvirta, Timo, 2006. "An introduction to univariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 646, Stockholm School of Economics.
  138. Brunetti, Celso & Scotti, Chiara & Mariano, Roberto S. & Tan, Augustine H.H., 2008. "Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 104-128, June.
  139. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2009. "Time-varying Integration and International diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 368-387, June.
  140. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Gabrielsen, Alexandros, 2013. "Dynamics of credit spread moments of European corporate bond indexes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3125-3144.
  141. Yongmiao Hong & Haitao Li & Feng Zhao, 2013. "Can the Random Walk Model be Beaten in Out-of-Sample Density Forecasts? Evidence from Intraday Forei," Papers 2013-10-14, Working Paper.
  142. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  143. Cheng-si Zhang & Da-yin Zhang & Jeffery Breece, 2011. "Financial Crisis, Monetary Policy, and Stock Market Volatility in China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(2), pages 371-388, November.
  144. Fedorova, E. & Afanasev, D., 2014. "Comprehensive Crisis Indicator for Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 23(3), pages 38-59.
  145. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
  146. Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen, 2006. "The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 309-337, September.
  147. He, Hui & Yang, Jiawen, 2011. "Regime-switching analysis of ADR home market pass-through," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 204-214, January.
  148. Lee, Hsiang-Tai, 2009. "Optimal futures hedging under jump switching dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 446-456, June.
  149. Bayraci, Selcuk & UNAL, GAZANFER, 2010. "Continuous time modeling of interest rates: An empirical study on the Turkish short rate," MPRA Paper 28091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  150. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2002. "The effects of the introduction of the euro on the volatility of European stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2047-2064, October.
  151. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Huang, Chao-Hsi & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2008. "Reexamining the permanent income hypothesis with uncertainty in permanent and transitory innovation states," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1816-1836, December.
  152. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "What Ties Return Volatilities to Price Valuations and Fundamentals?," NBER Working Papers 15563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  153. repec:ipg:wpaper:32 is not listed on IDEAS
  154. Zieling, Daniel & Mahayni, Antje & Balder, Sven, 2014. "Performance evaluation of optimized portfolio insurance strategies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 212-225.
  155. Francq, Christian & ZakoI¨an, Jean-Michel, 2008. "Deriving the autocovariances of powers of Markov-switching GARCH models, with applications to statistical inference," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3027-3046, February.
  156. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
  157. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
  158. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: A multicountry regime-switching analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  159. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2008. "Regime switching models of hedge fund returns," Faculty Working Papers 12/08, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  160. Bollen, Nicolas P. B & Rasiel, Emma, 2003. "The performance of alternative valuation models in the OTC currency options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 33-64, February.
  161. Bae, Jinho & Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Why are stock returns and volatility negatively correlated?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-58, January.
  162. Cheung, C. Sherman & Miu, Peter, 2010. "Diversification benefits of commodity futures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 451-474, December.
  163. Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2007. "Commonality in the time-variation of stock-stock and stock-bond return comovements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 192-218, May.
  164. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  165. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, November.
  166. Hyun Kook Shin & Byoung Hark Yoo, 2012. "The Volatility Of The Won-Dollar Exchange Rate During The 2008-9 Crisis," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(4), pages 61-77, December.
  167. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2002. "Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates," Working Papers 2002:5, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Aug 2003.
  168. Robert R. Bliss & David C. Smith, 1997. "The stability of interest rate processes," Working Paper 97-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  169. Kandemir Kocaaslan, Ozge, 2013. "The causal link between energy and output growth: Evidence from Markov switching Granger causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1196-1206.
  170. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico, 2011. "Confidence building on Euro convergence: Evidence from currency options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 474-491, April.
  171. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2003. "How do Regimes Affect Asset Allocation?," NBER Working Papers 10080, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  172. Mohamed Saidane & Christian Lavergne, 2009. "Optimal Prediction with Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Analysed Hidden Markov Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 323-364, November.
  173. Kiyotaka Satoyoshi & Hidetoshi Mitsui, 2011. "Empirical Study of Nikkei 225 Options with the Markov Switching GARCH Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 55-68, March.
  174. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & Bin Xiao, 2007. "A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown [Revised to become No. 07/06 above]," Discussion Papers 07/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  175. Francesco Audrino & Robert Fernholz & Roberto Ferretti, 2007. "A Forecasting Model for Stock Market Diversity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 213-240, March.
  176. Tamgac, Unay, 2011. "Crisis and self-fulfilling expectations: The Turkish experience in 1994 and 2000-2001," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 44-58, January.
  177. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  178. Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2012. "ARCH/GARCH with persistent covariate: Asymptotic theory of MLE," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 95-112.
  179. Gourieroux, Christian & Sufana, Razvan, 2011. "Discrete time Wishart term structure models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 815-824, June.
  180. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  181. Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2009. "Analytical Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall under regime-switching," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 138-151, September.
  182. Ralf Ahrens & Stefan Reitz, 2000. "Chartist Prediction in the Foreign Exchange Market. Evidence from the Daily Dollar/DM Exchange Rate," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1683, Econometric Society.
  183. T M Christensen & A. S. Hurn & K A Lindsay, 2008. "Discrete time-series models when counts are unobservable," NCER Working Paper Series 35, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  184. Ryan SULEIMANN, 2003. "New Technology Stock Market Indexes Contagion: A VAR-dccMVGARCH Approach," Econometrics 0307003, EconWPA, revised 18 Jul 2003.
  185. Shu Wu & Yong Zeng, 2005. "A General Equilibrium Model Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates Under Regime-Switching Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 839-869.
  186. Eric Hillebrand, 2003. "Overlaying Time Scales and Persistence Estimation in GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrics 0301003, EconWPA.
  187. Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Regime shifts in interest rate volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 418-434, June.
  188. Goto, Shingo, 2000. "The Fed's Effect on Excess Returns and Inflation is Much Bigger Than You Think," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt04f1z5hb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  189. Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2006. "Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates," MPRA Paper 5199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  190. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico C, 2004. "Confidence Building on Euro Conversion: Theory and Evidence from Currency Options," CEPR Discussion Papers 4180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  191. Gelman, Sergey & Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Markov-switching in target stocks during takeover bids," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 745-758, December.
  192. Hartz, Christoph & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc, 2006. "Accurate value-at-risk forecasting based on the normal-GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2295-2312, December.
  193. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2007. "What tames the Celtic tiger? portfolio implications from a multivariate Markov switching model," Working Papers 2006-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  194. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
  195. Ángel León & Francis Benito & Juan Nave, 2006. "Modeling The Euro Overnight Rate," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-11, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  196. Sylvia Fruhwirth-Schnattaer & Sylvia Kaufmann, 2000. "Bayesian Analysis of Switching ARCH Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1381, Econometric Society.
  197. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
  198. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Improving market-based forecasts of short-term interest rates: Time-varying stationarity and the predictive content of switching regime-expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  199. Liu, Ji-Chun, 2007. "Stationarity for a Markov-switching Box-Cox transformed threshold GARCH process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(13), pages 1428-1438, July.
  200. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  201. Celso Brunetti & Roberto S. Mariano & Chiara Scotti & Augustine H. H. Tan, 2003. "Markov Switching Garch Models of Currency Crises in Southeast Asia," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-008, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  202. Davidson, James, 2004. "Forecasting Markov-switching dynamic, conditionally heteroscedastic processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 137-147, June.
  203. Francesco Audrino & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2008. "Smooth Regimes, Macroeconomic Variables, and Bagging for the Short-Term Interest Rate Process," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-16, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  204. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2005. "Transition Variables in the Markov-switching Model: Some Small Sample Properties," Working Papers 2005:25, Lund University, Department of Economics.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.