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Are there nonlinearities in short‐term interest rates?

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  • Sirimon Treepongkaruna
  • Stephen Gray

Abstract

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short‐term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short‐term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short‐term interest rate. Out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of one‐factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

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  • Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Stephen Gray, 2006. "Are there nonlinearities in short‐term interest rates?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(1), pages 149-167, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:46:y:2006:i:1:p:149-167
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-629X.2006.00151.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vijay A. Murik, 2013. "Bond pricing with a surface of zero coupon yields," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(2), pages 497-512, June.
    2. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2010. "Mean reversion in US and international short rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 286-296, December.
    3. Muteba Mwamba, John & Thabo, Lethaba & Uwilingiye, Josine, 2014. "Modelling the short-term interest rate with stochastic differential equation in continuous time: linear and nonlinear models," MPRA Paper 64386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Nowman, Khalid Ben, 2010. "Modelling the UK and Euro yield curves using the Generalized Vasicek model: Empirical results from panel data for one and two factor models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 334-341, December.
    5. Vijay A Murik, 2013. "Measuring monetary policy expectations," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, April.

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