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On the robustness of short–term interest rate models

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  • Sirimon Treepongkaruna
  • Stephen Gray

Abstract

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Stephen Gray, 2003. "On the robustness of short–term interest rate models," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 43(1), pages 87-121, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:43:y:2003:i:1:p:87-121
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-629X.00084
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    Cited by:

    1. Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Stephen Gray, 2006. "Are there nonlinearities in short‐term interest rates?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(1), pages 149-167, March.
    2. Somayeh Kokabisaghi & Eric J. Pauwels & Katrien Van Meulder & André B. Dorsman, 2018. "Are These Shocks for Real? Sensitivity Analysis of the Significance of the Wavelet Response to Some CKLS Processes," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-12, September.
    3. Beata Stehlikova & Daniel Sevcovic, 2008. "Approximate formulae for pricing zero-coupon bonds and their asymptotic analysis," Papers 0802.3039, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2008.
    4. Vijay A. Murik, 2013. "Bond pricing with a surface of zero coupon yields," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(2), pages 497-512, June.
    5. Christopher M. Bilson & Timothy J. Brailsford & Luke J. Sullivan & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2008. "Pricing Bonds in the Australian Market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(1), pages 123-143, June.
    6. Andrew D. Sanford & Gael M. Martin, 2006. "Bayesian comparison of several continuous time models of the Australian short rate," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(2), pages 309-326, June.
    7. Kam Fong Chan, 2005. "Modelling conditional heteroscedasticity and jumps in Australian short‐term interest rates," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 45(4), pages 537-551, December.
    8. Josheski Dushko & Apostolov Mico, 2021. "Equilibrium Short-Rate Models Vs No-Arbitrage Models: Literature Review and Computational Examples," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 25(3), pages 42-71, September.
    9. Andrew D. Sanford & Gael Martin, 2004. "Bayesian Analysis of Continuous Time Models of the Australian Short Rate," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    10. Robert Faff & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2013. "A re-examination of the empirical performance of the Longstaff and Schwartz two-factor term structure model using real yield data," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(2), pages 333-352, August.
    11. Peter Dunn & Scott Francis & Jason Hall, 2009. "Leveraged superannuation," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(3), pages 505-529, September.
    12. Vijay A Murik, 2013. "Measuring monetary policy expectations," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, April.
    13. Faff, Robert & Gray, Philip, 2006. "On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3131-3146, November.

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