IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v21y2010i3p286-296.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mean reversion in US and international short rates

Author

Listed:
  • Christiansen, Charlotte

Abstract

We extend the CKLS one factor short rate model to include nonlinear mean reversion in a new way. We allow for extreme value mean reversion by including the smallest short rate during the previous year in the mean equation. The US short rate is found to exhibit extreme value mean reversion. The evidence of mean reversion varies across the short rates in the US and five other major markets (Canada, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, and the UK).

Suggested Citation

  • Christiansen, Charlotte, 2010. "Mean reversion in US and international short rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 286-296, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:286-296
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062-9408(10)00019-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    2. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
    3. Hideyuki Takamizawa, 2008. "Is Nonlinear Drift Implied by the Short End of the Term Structure?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 311-346, January.
    4. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, February.
    5. Manuel Arapis & Jiti Gao, 2006. "Empirical Comparisons in Short-Term Interest Rate Models Using Nonparametric Methods," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 310-345.
    6. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, February.
    8. Bali, Turan G. & Wu, Liuren, 2006. "A comprehensive analysis of the short-term interest-rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1269-1290, April.
    9. Faff, Robert & Gray, Philip, 2006. "On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3131-3146, November.
    10. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 907-929, November.
    11. Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Levy, Haim, 2008. "Nonlinear mean reversion in stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 767-782, May.
    12. Wu, Jhy-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. " Mean Reversion of Interest Rates in the Eurocurrency Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 459-473, September.
    13. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1996. "Mean Reversion in Interest Rates: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 604-621, November.
    14. Sirimon Treepongkaruna & Stephen Gray, 2006. "Are there nonlinearities in short-term interest rates?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 46(1), pages 149-167.
    15. Durham, Garland B., 2003. "Likelihood-based specification analysis of continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 463-487, December.
    16. Christopher S. Jones, 2003. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Short-Term Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 793-843, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ilo:ilowps:433897 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Foerster, Stephen R. & Sapp, Stephen G., 2011. "Back to fundamentals: The role of expected cash flows in equity valuation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 320-343.
    3. Gabriel J Power & Charli D. Tandja M. & Josée Bastien & Philippe Grégoire, 2015. "Measuring infrastructure investment option value," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 49-72, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short term interest rate Mean reversion Extreme value Nonlinearity;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:21:y:2010:i:3:p:286-296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.