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Is Nonlinear Drift Implied by the Short-End of the Term Structure?

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  • Takamizawa, Hideyuki

Abstract

Nonlinear drift models of the short-rate are estimated using data on the short-end of the term structure, where the cross-sectional relation is obtained by an analytical approximation. We find that (i) nonlinear physical drift is not implied unless it is strongly affected by cross-sectional dimensions of the data; (ii) nonlinear risk-neutral drift that allows for fast mean-reversion for high rates is desirable to explain and predict observed patterns of yield spreads; and (iii) for higher-frequency data from which transitory shocks are removed, (ii) still remains valid although the nonlinearity is somewhat reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Takamizawa, Hideyuki, 2006. "Is Nonlinear Drift Implied by the Short-End of the Term Structure?," Discussion Papers 2006-08, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:econdp:2006-08
    Note: November 22, 2006
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    Cited by:

    1. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2010. "Mean reversion in US and international short rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 286-296, December.
    2. Hideyuki Takamizawa, 2007. "A Simple Measure for Examining the Proxy Problem of the Short-Rate," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 14(4), pages 341-361, December.
    3. Chourdakis, Kyriakos & Dotsis, George, 2011. "Maximum likelihood estimation of non-affine volatility processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 533-545, June.
    4. repec:eee:csdana:v:56:y:2012:i:12:p:3975-3987 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Song, Zhaogang, 2011. "A martingale approach for testing diffusion models based on infinitesimal operator," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 189-212, June.
    6. Mario Cerrato & Chia Chun Lo & Konstantinos Skindilias, 2011. "Adaptive continuous time Markov chain approximation model to general jump-diffusions," Working Papers 2011_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. Li, Minqiang, 2013. "An examination of the continuous-time dynamics of international volatility indices amid the recent market turmoil," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 128-139.
    8. Cerrato, Mario & Lo, Chia Chun & Skindilias, Konstantinos, 2011. "Adaptive Continuous time Markov Chain Approximation Model to General Jump-Diusions," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-53, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).

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