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Exchange market pressure and the credibility of Macau's currency Board

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  • Macedo, Jorge Braga de
  • Braz, José
  • Pereira, Luis brites
  • Nunes, Luis C.

Abstract

In this study, we assess the credibility of the currency board arrangement (CBA) of the Macau Special Administrative Region by studying the relationship between exchange market pressure (EMP) and the anchors of a rule-based CBA, namely, interest rate arbitrage, exchange rate arbitrage and economic discipline. A pure CBA signals its credibility by allowing the first two anchors to function automatically and by pursuing sound fiscal policies. The analysis’ results suggest that Macau’s CBA has been characterised by a state of low volatility since late 1992, with the brief exception of the East Asian financial crisis period. The paper’s main finding is that fiscal fundamentals seem to have a more pronounced role in reducing EMP’s variability during periods of low volatility whilst interest rate arbitrage is more important in periods of high volatility. We conclude that Macau’s CBA is credible at present as reflected in the low frequency of observed EMP, in the narrowing of Macau’s interest rate differential vis-à-vis U.S. interest rates and in Macau’s substantial fiscal reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Macedo, Jorge Braga de & Braz, José & Pereira, Luis brites & Nunes, Luis C., 2006. "Exchange market pressure and the credibility of Macau's currency Board," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp492, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp492
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
    2. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    3. Connolly, Michael & Dantas da Silveira, Jose, 1979. "Exchange Market Pressure in Postwar Brazil: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 448-454, June.
    4. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-121, January.
    5. Macedo, Jorge Braga de & Nunes, Luis Catela & Pereira, Luis Brites, 2003. "Central bank intervenyion under target zones: the portuguese escudo in the ERM," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp435, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    6. Charles Enoch & Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1997. "Currency Board Arrangements; Issues and Experiences," IMF Occasional Papers 151, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Kim, Inchul, 1985. "Exchange Market Pressure in Korea: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 258-263, May.
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