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Citations for "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting"

by Victor Zarnowitz

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  1. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The past, present, and future of macroeconomic forecasting," Working Papers 97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
  4. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2009. "Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 183474, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  5. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, . "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 651, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59 Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IZA Discussion Papers 3442, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "The 2001 US recession: what did recession prediction models tell us?," BIS Working Papers 148, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2011. "Read All about It!! What Happens Following a Technology Shock?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1144-79, June.
  10. Marcel Ausloos, 2014. "A biased view of a few possible components when reflecting on the present decade financial and economic crisis," Papers 1412.0127,
  11. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
  12. Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1996. "Measuring business cycles with business-cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1007-1025.
  13. J.M. Berk, 1997. "Trade flows as a channel for the transmission of business cycles," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(201), pages 187-212.
  14. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  15. Lilian Carol Bohórquez Olarte & Jesús María Godoy Bejarano & Diego Fernando Téllez Falla, 2009. "Los Ciclos Del Empleo Regional En Colombia: Dependencia Interregional 2001-2006," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 27(58), pages 16-55, Agosto.
  16. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Marco Piazza & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series," LEM Papers Series 2009/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  18. Sybille Lehwald, 2013. "Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery," Empirica, Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 655-684, November.
  19. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 887, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  20. Christian Groth & Jakob B. Madsen, 2013. "Medium-term Fluctuations and the "Great Ratios" of Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 13-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  21. Keen Meng Choy, 2006. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: Stylized Facts from Singapore," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0611, Nanyang Technological University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  22. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "ifo Geschäftsklima, Produktion und Ertragslage in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(03), pages 21-24, 02.
  23. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel P�rez Quir�s, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 215, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  24. Daco, Gregory & Hernandez Martinez, Fernando & Hsu, Li-Wu, 2009. "Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects," MPRA Paper 18043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. J.M. Berk, 1997. "Trade flows as a channel for the transmission of business cycles," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(201), pages 187-212.
  26. Edoardo Gaffeo & Ivan Petrella & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2012. "Loss Aversion and the Asymmetric Transmission of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 12-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  27. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  28. Gaffeo, E. & Petrella, I. & Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2010. "Reference-dependent Preferences and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper 2010-111, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  29. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  30. Piotr Białowolski, 2015. "Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis," Social Indicators Research, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 281-302, August.
  31. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott & Tamura, Robert, 2013. "Recessions, growth and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-40.
  32. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  33. António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2003. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area: A Frequency Band Approach," Working Papers w200307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  34. Sohel Azad, A.S.M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2015. "International swap market contagion and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 355-371.
  35. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," IMF Working Papers 13/19, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Andrew Filardo & Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Back to the future? Assessing the deflation record," BIS Working Papers 152, Bank for International Settlements.
  37. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2005. "Estimating Potential Output : a Survey of the Alternative Methods and their Applications to Brazil," Discussion Papers 1092, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  38. De Bandt. O. & Bruneau, C. & Flageollet, B., 2006. "Assessing Aggregate Comovements in France, Germany and Italy. Using a Non Stationary Factor Model of the Euro Area," Working papers 145, Banque de France.
  39. Yao, Vincent W. & Sloboda, Brian W., 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(2).
  40. Mary C. Daly & John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Does regional economic performance affect bank health? New analysis of an old question," Working Paper Series 2004-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  41. Yang-Woo Kim, 1996. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 69-82.
  42. Esteban PeÌrez Caldentey & Daniel Titelman & Pablo Carvallo, 2014. "Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2014(3), pages 69, February.
  43. Dwyer, Gerald P & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott L. & Tamura, Robert, 2013. "Recessions, Growth and Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 48843, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2012.
  44. Felipe Larraín & Se Kyu Choi-Ha, 2003. "Recesiones, Apertura y Régimen Cambiario," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 668-678.
  45. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495,
  46. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/125, International Monetary Fund.
  47. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  48. Pieter Laubscher, 2014. "A new recession-dating algorithm for South Africa," Working Papers 06/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  49. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
  50. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles & Claude Diebolt, 2014. "A revision of the US business-cycles chronology 1790-1928," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 234-244.
  51. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
  52. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
  53. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the macroeconomic roots of financial stability policy: journey, challenges and a way forward," BIS Working Papers 354, Bank for International Settlements.
  54. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record," NBER Working Papers 18194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
  56. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
  57. Fukuda, Kosei, 2009. "Measuring major and minor cycles in univariate economic time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1093-1100, September.
  58. Francisco Fatás-Villafranca & Gloria Jarne & Julio Sánchez-Chóliz, 2012. "Innovation, cycles and growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 207-233, April.
  59. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  60. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  61. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  62. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages R3-R13, August.
  63. Minton, Bernadette A., 1997. "An empirical examination of basic valuation models for plain vanilla U.S. interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 251-277, May.
  64. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Financial portfolio choice: Do business cycle regimes matter? Panel evidence from international household surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 14-27.
  65. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, ELSEVIER, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
  66. Noam, Eli M., 2006. "Fundamental instability: Why telecom is becoming a cyclical and oligopolistic industry," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-284, September.
  67. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Yao, Vincent W., 2005. "Measuring and predicting turning points using a dynamic bi-factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-537.
  68. Roumen Vesselinov, 2012. "New Composite Indicators for Bulgarian Business Cycle," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 5(2), pages 101-111, August.
  69. Katarina Bacic & Maruska Vizek, 2006. "A Brand New CROLEI: Do We Need a New Forecasting Index?," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 311-346.
  70. Yao, Vincent W. & Solboda, Brian, 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208159, Transportation Research Forum.
  71. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou & Eftymios Tsionas & Tryphon Kollintzas, 2009. "Stylized Facts of Prices and Interest Rates over the Business Cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2613-2627.
  72. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Choy, Keen Meng, 2006. "Forecasting the global electronics cycle with leading indicators: A Bayesian VAR approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 301-315.
  73. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  74. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-466.
  75. Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J., 2004. "Looking back at the international deflation record," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-311, December.
  76. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
  77. Yang, Joon-Mo & Kim, Tae-Wan, 2005. "A search for leading sectors over the business cycle: The case of Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 480-495, December.
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