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Citations for "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting"

by Victor Zarnowitz

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  1. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 887, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2010. "Read All About it!! What happens following a technology shock?," Working Papers tecipa-391, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  3. Noam, Eli M., 2006. "Fundamental instability: Why telecom is becoming a cyclical and oligopolistic industry," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-284, September.
  4. Piotr Białowolski, 2015. "Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 281-302, August.
  5. Reto Cueni & Bruno S. Frey, 2014. "Forecasts and Reactivity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2014-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  6. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, 2011. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 008328, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  9. Katarina Bacic & Maruska Vizek, 2006. "A Brand New CROLEI: Do We Need a New Forecasting Index?," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 311-346.
  10. Joseph Davis & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2016. "America's First Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 21856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  12. Nelson H. Barbosa Filho, 2015. "Estimating Potential Output: a Survey of the Alternative Methods and their Applications to Brazil," Discussion Papers 0147, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  13. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wiliam English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 127, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Daco, Gregory & Hernandez Martinez, Fernando & Hsu, Li-Wu, 2009. "Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects," MPRA Paper 18043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Lilian Carol Bohórquez Olarte & Jesús María Godoy Bejarano & Diego Fernando Téllez Falla, 2009. "Los ciclos del empleo regional en Colombia: dependencia interregional 2001-2006," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 27(58), pages 16-55, August.
  16. Titelman Kardonsky, Daniel & Pérez Caldentey, Esteban & Carvallo, Pablo, 2013. "Weak expansions: a distinctive feature of the business cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," Financiamiento para el Desarrollo 243, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  17. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  18. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-466.
  19. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
  20. HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  21. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Piotr Białowolski, 2016. "The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 509-528, March.
  23. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  24. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Volume 31 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott & Tamura, Robert, 2013. "Recessions, growth and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-40.
  26. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/125, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Sybille Lehwald, 2012. "Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization?Evidence from the Core and the Periphery," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 122, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  28. Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J., 2004. "Looking back at the international deflation record," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-311, December.
  29. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record," NBER Working Papers 18194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Pieter Laubscher, 2014. "A new recession-dating algorithm for South Africa," Working Papers 06/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  32. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "ifo Geschäftsklima, Produktion und Ertragslage in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(03), pages 21-24, 02.
  33. Keen Meng Choy, 2006. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: Stylized Facts from Singapore," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0611, Nanyang Technological University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  34. Niek J. Nahuis & W. Jos Jansen, 2003. "Which Survey Indicators Are Useful for Monitoring Consumption? Evidence fron European Countries," Macroeconomics 0309013, EconWPA.
  35. Mary C. Daly & John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Does regional economic performance affect bank health? New analysis of an old question," Working Paper Series 2004-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  36. Boldrin, Michael & Horvath, Michael, 1995. "Labor Contracts and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 972-1004, October.
  37. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 6290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  39. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Petrella, Ivan & Pfajfar, Damjan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2014. "Loss Aversion and the Asymmetric Transmission of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10105, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  41. Rua, Antonio & Nunes, Luis C., 2005. "Coincident and leading indicators for the euro area: A frequency band approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 503-523.
  42. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  43. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 22059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  45. Leamer Edward E, 2009. "Homes and Cars: Why are the Cycles in Homes and Consumer Durables so Similar?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-66, March.
  46. repec:dgr:rugccs:200312 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Robert Inklaar & Jan Jacobs & Ward Romp, 2005. "Business Cycle Indexes: Does a Heap of Data Help?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(3), pages 309-336.
  48. Roumen Vesselinov, 2012. "New Composite Indicators for Bulgarian Business Cycle," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 5(2), pages 101-111, August.
  49. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area," Working Papers 0419, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  50. Minton, Bernadette A., 1997. "An empirical examination of basic valuation models for plain vanilla U.S. interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 251-277, May.
  51. Marcel Ausloos, 2014. "A biased view of a few possible components when reflecting on the present decade financial and economic crisis," Papers 1412.0127, arXiv.org.
  52. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages R3-R13, August.
  53. Peter Temin, 1998. "The Causes of American Business Cycles: An Essay in Economic Historiography," NBER Working Papers 6692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Yao, Vincent W., 2005. "Measuring and predicting turning points using a dynamic bi-factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-537.
  55. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
  56. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Marco Piazza & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series," LEM Papers Series 2009/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  57. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
  58. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "The 2001 US recession: what did recession prediction models tell us?," BIS Working Papers 148, Bank for International Settlements.
  59. Francisco Fatás-Villafranca & Gloria Jarne & Julio Sánchez-Chóliz, 2012. "Innovation, cycles and growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 207-233, April.
  60. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
  61. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Financial portfolio choice: Do business cycle regimes matter? Panel evidence from international household surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 14-27.
  62. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1996. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment: Response to Kaplan and Zingales," NBER Working Papers 5462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 887, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  64. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495, arXiv.org.
  65. Edoardo GAFFEO & Ivan PETRELLA & Damjan PFAJFAR & Emiliano SANTORO, 2010. "Reference-dependent preferences and the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers Department of Economics ces10.28, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  66. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  67. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
  68. De Bandt. O. & Bruneau, C. & Flageollet, B., 2006. "Assessing Aggregate Comovements in France, Germany and Italy. Using a Non Stationary Factor Model of the Euro Area," Working papers 145, Banque de France.
  69. Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe, 2014. "Federal research spending and innovation in the U.S. economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 492-506.
  70. Yang-Woo Kim, 1996. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 69-82.
  71. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, ELSEVIER, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
  72. Andrew Filardo & Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Back to the future? Assessing the deflation record," BIS Working Papers 152, Bank for International Settlements.
  73. Yao, Vincent W. & Sloboda, Brian W., 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(2), pages -.
  74. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2014. "A revision of the US business-cycles chronology 1790-1928," Post-Print hal-01122519, HAL.
  75. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2009. "Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 183474, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  76. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou & Eftymios Tsionas & Tryphon Kollintzas, 2009. "Stylized Facts of Prices and Interest Rates over the Business Cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2613-2627.
  77. Felipe Larraín & Se Kyu Choi-Ha, 2003. "Recesiones, Apertura y Régimen Cambiario," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 668-678.
  78. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  79. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
  80. Claudio Borio, 2012. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," BIS Working Papers 395, Bank for International Settlements.
  81. Sohel Azad, A.S.M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2015. "International swap market contagion and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 355-371.
  82. Yang, Joon-Mo & Kim, Tae-Wan, 2005. "A search for leading sectors over the business cycle: The case of Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 480-495, December.
  83. Fukuda, Kosei, 2009. "Measuring major and minor cycles in univariate economic time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1093-1100, September.
  84. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
  85. Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1996. "Measuring business cycles with business-cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1007-1025.
  86. Kevin Dowd & Martin Hutchinson, 2016. "Learning the Right Lessons from the Financial Crisis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 393-413, Spring/Su.
  87. Yao, Vincent W. & Solboda, Brian, 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208159, Transportation Research Forum.
  88. Dwyer, Gerald P & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott L. & Tamura, Robert, 2013. "Recessions, Growth and Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 48843, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2012.
  89. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Choy, Keen Meng, 2006. "Forecasting the global electronics cycle with leading indicators: A Bayesian VAR approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 301-315.
  90. J.M. Berk, 1997. "Trade flows as a channel for the transmission of business cycles," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(201), pages 187-212.
  91. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  92. Pieter Laubscher, 2016. "The business cycle resilience of the Western Cape economy: a regional analysis of the 2009 recession and subsequent recovery," Working Papers 17/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  93. Christian Groth & Jakob B. Madsen, 2013. "Medium-term Fluctuations and the "Great Ratios" of Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 13-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  94. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  95. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
  96. J.M. Berk, 1997. "Trade flows as a channel for the transmission of business cycles," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(201), pages 187-212.
  97. Döpke, Jörg, 2000. "Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 972, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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