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Citations for "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting"

by Victor Zarnowitz

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  1. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
  2. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  3. José Luis Cendejas & Félix-Fernando Muñoz & Nadia Fernández-de-Pinedo, 2017. "A contribution to the analysis of historical economic fluctuations (1870–2010): filtering, spurious cycles, and unobserved component modeling," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 93-125, January.
  4. António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2003. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area: A Frequency Band Approach," Working Papers w200307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe, 2014. "Federal research spending and innovation in the U.S. economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 492-506.
  6. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
  7. Mastromarco, Camilla & Woitek, Ulrich, 2007. "Regional business cycles in Italy," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 907-918, October.
  8. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Paper 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  9. Ikechukwu A. ACHA & Emmanuel IKPE MICHAEL & Joseph M. ESSIEN, 2017. "Nigeria’s Investment Environment: Issues of Economic Growth and Development," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5, pages 1-11.
  10. Edoardo GAFFEO & Ivan PETRELLA & Damjan PFAJFAR & Emiliano SANTORO, 2010. "Reference-dependent preferences and the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers Department of Economics ces10.28, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  11. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Pilar Bengoechea & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2004. "A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area," Working Papers 0419, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  14. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
  15. Inklaar, Robert & Jacobs, Jan & Romp, Ward, 2003. "Business cycle indexes: does a heap of data help?," CCSO Working Papers 200312, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  16. Piotr Białowolski, 2016. "The influence of negative response style on survey-based household inflation expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 509-528, March.
  17. W. Jos Jansen & Niek J. Nahuis, 2004. "Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 89-98.
  18. Mary C. Daly & John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2003. "Does regional economic performance affect bank health? New analysis of an old question," Working Paper Series 2004-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  19. Michele Boldrin & Michael Horvath, 1994. "Labor Contracts and Business Cycles," Discussion Papers 1068, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  20. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "ifo Geschäftsklima, Produktion und Ertragslage in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(03), pages 21-24, 02.
  21. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Marco Piazza & Andrea Roventini, 2009. "Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 3155-3161.
  22. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
  23. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
  24. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Financial portfolio choice: Do business cycle regimes matter? Panel evidence from international household surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 14-27.
  26. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2010. "Read All About it!! What happens following a technology shock?," Working Papers tecipa-391, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  27. Döpke, Jörg, 2000. "Macroeconomic Forecasts and the Nature of Economic Shocks in Germany," Kiel Working Papers 972, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  28. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Nelson H Barbosa-Filho, 2005. "Estimating potential output: a survey of the alternative methods and their applications to Brazil," Macroeconomics 0503003, EconWPA.
  30. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, "undated". "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 651, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  31. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
  32. Lilian Carol Bohórquez Olarte & Jesús María Godoy Bejarano & Diego Fernando Téllez Falla, 2009. "Los ciclos del empleo regional en Colombia: dependencia interregional 2001-2006," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 27(58), pages 16-55, August.
  33. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Choy, Keen Meng, 2006. "Forecasting the global electronics cycle with leading indicators: A Bayesian VAR approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 301-315.
  34. J.M. Berk, 1997. "Trade flows as a channel for the transmission of business cycles," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(201), pages 187-212.
  35. Christian Groth & Jakob B. Madsen, 2013. "Medium-term Fluctuations and the "Great Ratios" of Economic Growth," Discussion Papers 13-16, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  36. Pieter Laubscher, 2014. "A new recession-dating algorithm for South Africa," Working Papers 06/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  37. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Yao, Vincent W., 2005. "Measuring and predicting turning points using a dynamic bi-factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-537.
  38. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, ELSEVIER, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
  39. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott & Tamura, Robert, 2013. "Recessions, growth and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-40.
  40. repec:ipf:finteo:v:30:y:2006:i:4:p:311-346 is not listed on IDEAS
  41. Isengildina-Massa, Olga & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 2009. "Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices," Marketing and Outlook Research Reports 183474, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  42. Keen Meng Choy, 2006. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: Stylized Facts from Singapore," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 0611, Nanyang Technological University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  43. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2011. "A Revision of the US Business- Cycles Chronology 1790–1928," Working Papers hal-00570304, HAL.
  44. HIRATA Hideaki & Ayhan KOSE & Christopher OTROK, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Discussion papers 13004, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  45. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2016. "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 11587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  46. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-466.
  47. Gregory, Allan W. & Smith, Gregor W., 1996. "Measuring business cycles with business-cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1007-1025.
  48. repec:kie:kieliw:886 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Dwyer, Gerald P & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott L. & Tamura, Robert, 2013. "Recessions, Growth and Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 48843, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2012.
  50. Reto Cueni & Bruno S. Frey, 2014. "Forecasts and Reactivity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2014-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  51. Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J., 2004. "Looking back at the international deflation record," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-311, December.
  52. Michael Bordo & Andrew Filardo, 2005. "Deflation and monetary policy in a historical perspective: remembering the past or being condemned to repeat it?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 799-844, October.
  53. Minton, Bernadette A., 1997. "An empirical examination of basic valuation models for plain vanilla U.S. interest rate swaps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 251-277, May.
  54. Yao, Vincent W. & Solboda, Brian, 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208159, Transportation Research Forum.
  55. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," NBER Working Papers 12400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Sybille Lehwald, 2012. "Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization?Evidence from the Core and the Periphery," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 122, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  57. Andrew J. Filardo, 1995. "Recent evidence on the muted inventory cycle," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 27-43.
  58. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 6290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Francisco Fatás-Villafranca & Gloria Jarne & Julio Sánchez-Chóliz, 2012. "Innovation, cycles and growth," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 207-233, April.
  60. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1996. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment: Response to Kaplan and Zingales," NBER Working Papers 5462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "Monetary policy and asset price bubbles: calibrating the monetary policy trade-offs," BIS Working Papers 155, Bank for International Settlements.
  62. Piotr Białowolski, 2015. "Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 281-302, August.
  63. Andrew J. Filardo, 1999. "How reliable are recession prediction models?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 35-55.
  64. Roumen Vesselinov, 2012. "New Composite Indicators for Bulgarian Business Cycle," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 5(2), pages 101-111, August.
  65. Andrew Filardo & Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Back to the future? Assessing the deflation record," BIS Working Papers 152, Bank for International Settlements.
  66. Noam, Eli M., 2006. "Fundamental instability: Why telecom is becoming a cyclical and oligopolistic industry," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 272-284, September.
  67. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
  68. Pieter Laubscher, 2016. "The business cycle resilience of the Western Cape economy: a regional analysis of the 2009 recession and subsequent recovery," Working Papers 17/2016, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  69. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  70. Daco, Gregory & Hernandez Martinez, Fernando & Hsu, Li-Wu, 2009. "Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects," MPRA Paper 18043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  71. Yang, Joon-Mo & Kim, Tae-Wan, 2005. "A search for leading sectors over the business cycle: The case of Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 480-495, December.
  72. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
  73. Groth, Christian & Madsen, Jakob B., 2016. "Medium-term fluctuations and the “Great Ratios” of economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 149-176.
  74. Edoardo Gaffeo & Ivan Petrella & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2012. "Loss Aversion and the Asymmetric Transmission of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 12-21, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  75. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495, arXiv.org.
  76. Yao, Vincent W. & Sloboda, Brian W., 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(2).
  77. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  78. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  79. J.M. Berk, 1997. "Trade flows as a channel for the transmission of business cycles," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(201), pages 187-212.
  80. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "The 2001 US recession: what did recession prediction models tell us?," BIS Working Papers 148, Bank for International Settlements.
  81. Esteban Pérez Caldentey & Daniel Titelman & Pablo Carvallo, 2013. "Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_749, Levy Economics Institute.
  82. De Bandt. O. & Bruneau, C. & Flageollet, B., 2006. "Assessing Aggregate Comovements in France, Germany and Italy. Using a Non Stationary Factor Model of the Euro Area," Working papers 145, Banque de France.
  83. Joseph Davis & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2016. "America's First Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 21856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  84. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/125, International Monetary Fund.
  85. Claudio Borio, 2013. "On Time, Stocks and Flows: Understanding the Global Macroeconomic Challenges," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 225(1), pages 3-13, August.
  86. Marcel Ausloos, 2014. "A biased view of a few possible components when reflecting on the present decade financial and economic crisis," Papers 1412.0127, arXiv.org.
  87. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 22059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  88. Leamer Edward E, 2009. "Homes and Cars: Why are the Cycles in Homes and Consumer Durables so Similar?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-66, March.
  89. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  90. Sohel Azad, A.S.M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Fang, Victor & Wickramanayake, Jayasinghe, 2015. "International swap market contagion and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 355-371.
  91. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wiliam English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 127, Bank for International Settlements.
  92. Hideaki Hirata & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2013. "Regionalization vs. Globalization," IMF Working Papers 13/19, International Monetary Fund.
  93. Fukuda, Kosei, 2009. "Measuring major and minor cycles in univariate economic time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1093-1100, September.
  94. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  95. repec:dgr:rugccs:200312 is not listed on IDEAS
  96. Ioanna Konstantakopoulou & Eftymios Tsionas & Tryphon Kollintzas, 2009. "Stylized Facts of Prices and Interest Rates over the Business Cycle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2613-2627.
  97. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  98. Peter Temin, 1998. "The Causes of American Business Cycles: An Essay in Economic Historiography," NBER Working Papers 6692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  99. Yang-Woo Kim, 1996. "Are prices countercyclical? Evidence from East Asian countries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 69-82.
  100. repec:kie:kieliw:887 is not listed on IDEAS
  101. Kevin Dowd & Martin Hutchinson, 2016. "Learning the Right Lessons from the Financial Crisis," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 393-413, Spring/Su.
  102. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Stylized facts of Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 887, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  103. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
  104. Felipe Larraín & Se Kyu Choi-Ha, 2003. "Recesiones, Apertura y Régimen Cambiario," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 668-678.
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