IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/18043.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects

Author

Listed:
  • Daco, Gregory
  • Hernandez Martinez, Fernando
  • Hsu, Li-Wu

Abstract

Over the past year, there has been considerable debate about how the slowing of the United States and other major developed economies affects output growth across the world. The main purpose of this paper is to establish relevant conclusions on how the U.S., Euro Area and Japan gross domestic product growth affect international business cycle fluctuations, with the objective of identifying the main factors that influence spillovers into other countries. Using panel data regression, we conclude that output growth in the U.S. and Euro area are significant in explaining output growth across countries. Depending on the specifications, trade linkages play a significant role while financial linkages with respect to the three regions does not (except in one particular specification). There are signs of potential omitted variable bias in some regression indicating that some relevant variables have not been taken into account. There is also clear evidence of a structural change in the transmission mechanism of shocks after 1985 – since when shocks have become more country-specific.

Suggested Citation

  • Daco, Gregory & Hernandez Martinez, Fernando & Hsu, Li-Wu, 2009. "Global economy dynamics? Panel data approach to spillover effects," MPRA Paper 18043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18043/1/MPRA_paper_18043.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Srideep D Ganguly & Roberto Benelli, 2007. "Financial Linkages Between the U.S. and Latin America: Evidence from Daily Data," IMF Working Papers 2007/262, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
    3. Mr. Thomas Helbling & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2003. "Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2003/046, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jean Imbs, 2004. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 723-734, August.
    5. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-176, April.
    7. Monfort, Alain & Vitale, Giovanni & Rüffer, Rasmus & Renne, Jean-Paul, 2003. "Is Economic Activity in the G7 Synchronized? Common Shocks versus Spillover Effects," CEPR Discussion Papers 4119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Kose, M. Ayhan & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2006. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 267-295, March.
    9. Arora, Vivek & Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2006. "The Impact of U.S. Economic Growth on the Rest of the World: How Much Does It Matter?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 21-39.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ayhan Kose, M. & Otrok, Christopher & Whiteman, Charles H., 2008. "Understanding the evolution of world business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 110-130, May.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 141-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Montinari, Letizia & Stracca, Livio, 2016. "Trade, finance or policies: What drives the cross-border spill-over of business cycles?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 131-148.
    5. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    6. Igan, Deniz & Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2011. "Housing, credit, and real activity cycles: Characteristics and comovement," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 210-231, September.
    7. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    8. E. Monnet & D. Puy, 2016. "Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?," Working papers 592, Banque de France.
    9. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 1-19, February.
    10. Kabundi, Alain & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2012. "Recent French relative export performance: Is there a competitiveness problem?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1408-1435.
    11. Sybille Lehwald, 2013. "Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 655-684, November.
    12. AkIn, Cigdem & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2008. "Changing nature of North-South linkages: Stylized facts and explanations," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-28, February.
    13. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2006. "Comovements and heterogeneity in the Comovements and heterogeneity in the dynamic factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    15. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
    16. Alain Kabundi & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2011. "France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 311-342, October.
    17. Kingsley I. Obiora, 2010. "Do countries catch cold when trading partners sneeze? Evidence from spillovers in the Baltics," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 143-160.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Decoupling from the East Toward the West? Analyses of Spillovers to the Baltic Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/125, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Alain Kabundi, 2009. "Synchronisation Between South Africa And The U.S.: A Structural Dynamic Factor Analysis," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 1-27, March.
    20. James N. Blignaut & Jan H. van Heerden, 2015. "Is Water Shedding Next?," Working Papers 50, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output Growth; Trade and Financial Linkages; Structural Break; Cross- Section Panel Data.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18043. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.