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Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Kibambe Ngoie

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Arnold Zellner

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago)

Abstract

Using several variants of a Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM), see Zellner and Israilevich (2005) and Ngoie and Zellner (2012), this paper investigates how various tax rate reductions may help stimulate the U.S. economy while not adversely affecting aggregate U.S. debt. Variants of our MMM that are shown to fit past data and to perform well in forecasting experiments are employed to evaluate the effects of alternative tax policies. Using quarterly data, our one-sector MMM has been able to predict the 2008 downturn and the 2009Q3 upturn of the U.S. economy. Among other results, this study, using transfer and impulse response functions associated with our MMM, finds that permanent 5 percentage points cut in the personal income and corporate profits tax rates will cause the U.S. real GDP growth rate to rise by 3.0 percentage points with a standard error of 0.6 percentage points. Also, while this policy change leads to positive growth of the government sector, its share of total real GDP is slightly reduced. This is understandable since short run effects of tax cuts include the transfer of tax revenue from the government to the private sector. The private sector is allowed to manage a larger portion of its revenue while government is forced to cut public spending on social programs with little growth enhancing effects. This broadens private economic activities overall. Further, these tax rate policy changes stimulate the growth of the federal tax base considerably which helps to reduce annual budget deficits and the federal debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Kibambe Ngoie & Arnold Zellner, 2012. "Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 201217, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201217
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe & Zellner, Arnold, 2012. "The Use Of A Marshallian Macroeconomic Model For Policy Evaluation: Case Of South Africa," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 423-448, June.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1.
    3. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226978901 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 1998. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," CUDARE Working Papers 198677, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    7. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
    8. Zellner, Arnold & Israilevich, Guillermo, 2005. "Marshallian Macroeconomic Model: A Progress Report," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 220-243, April.
    9. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    10. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Comments on "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-686, October.
    11. Zellner,Arnold & Palm,Franz C. (ed.), 2004. "The Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis Approach," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521814072, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sayef Bakari & Ali Ahmadi & Sofien Tiba, 2020. "The Nexus among Domestic Investment, Taxation, and Economic Growth in Germany: Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model Analysis," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 5(1), pages 37-47, May.
    2. Dladla, Khumbuzile & Khobai, Hlalefang, 2018. "The impact of Taxation on Economic Growth in South Africa," MPRA Paper 86219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Keshab Bhattarai & Jonathan Haughton & Michael Head & David G Tuerck, 2017. "Simulating Corporate Income Tax Reform Proposals with a Dynamic CGE Model," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(5), pages 20-35, May.
    4. Emile AIFA, 2024. "Taxation and Economic Growth in Benin: Does the Rate “eat†the Base?," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(6), pages 1-26.
    5. Bournakis, Ioannis & Mallick, Sushanta, 2018. "TFP estimation at firm level: The fiscal aspect of productivity convergence in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 579-590.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marshallian Macroeconomic Model; Disaggregation; Transfer Functions; Impulse Response Functions; U.S. Fiscal Policy Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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