IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/97874.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A DSGE model for Fiscal Policy Analysis in The Gambia

Author

Listed:
  • DJINKPO, Medard

Abstract

The study investigates the effect of fiscal and monetary policies on domestic debt dynamics and provides fiscal rules useful to control domestic debt dynamics and maintain fiscal consolidation. Using a New-Keynesian model with the fiscal sector, this study analyses the contribution of government spending on aggregate demand measured by fiscal multipliers and the impact of tax adjustment on domestic debt dynamics. The findings indicate that while consumption and capital income tax have a stabilizing effect on domestic debt, labor income tax produces a weakly positive impact on domestic debt growth due to a higher fraction of Non-Ricardian households in the economy. The study provides a quantitative framework through a Bayesian estimation of steady-state tax rates as a benchmark to tax policy, aiming at mitigating fiscal distress without an adverse impact on output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • DJINKPO, Medard, 2019. "A DSGE model for Fiscal Policy Analysis in The Gambia," MPRA Paper 97874, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Dec 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97874
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/97874/8/MPRA_paper_97874.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Jakub Rysanek, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Policy in the DSGE-VAR Framework: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2016/09, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    2. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    3. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    4. Pestieau, P. M., 1974. "Optimal taxation and discount rate for public investment in a growth setting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 217-235, August.
    5. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1991. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Some Recent Results," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 519-539, August.
    6. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.
    7. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    8. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    9. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
    10. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    12. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    14. Arthur B. Laffer, 1981. "Government Exactions and Revenue Deficiencies," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 1-21, Spring.
    15. Nikolay Iskrev, 2010. "Evaluating the strength of identification in DSGE models. An a priori approach," 2010 Meeting Papers 1117, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. M. L. Weitzman, 1970. "Optimal Growth with Scale Economies in the Creation of Overhead Capital," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 37(4), pages 555-570.
    17. Hory, Marie-Pierre, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in Emerging Market Economies: Can we learn something from Advanced Economies?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 59-84.
    18. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    19. Michael Wickens, 2008. "Asset Pricing and Macroeconomics, from Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," Introductory Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach, Princeton University Press.
    20. Edward P. Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10612.
    21. Chamley, Christophe, 1986. "Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 607-622, May.
    22. Nora Traum & Shu‐Chun S. Yang, 2015. "When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 24-45, January.
    23. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    24. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.
    25. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    26. Engin Kara & Jasmin Sin, 2012. "Fiscal Multiplier in a Credit-Constrained New Keynesian Economy," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/634, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    27. Michael Wickens, 2008. "The Centralized Economy, from Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," Introductory Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach, Princeton University Press.
    28. Michael Wickens, 2008. "Imperfectly Flexible Prices, from Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach," Introductory Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Theory: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach, Princeton University Press.
    29. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    30. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    31. Judd, Kenneth L., 1999. "Optimal taxation and spending in general competitive growth models," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 1-26, January.
    32. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
    33. Fabio Canova, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models by S. An and F. Schorfheide," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 187-192.
    34. Perendia, George & Tsoukis, Chris, 2012. "The Keynesian multiplier, news and fiscal policy rules in a DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 25, CEPREMAP.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kumwenda, Thomson Nelson, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Evidence on Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Malawi," Dynare Working Papers 73, CEPREMAP.
    2. Ngah Ntiga, Louis Henri, 2022. "Estimation Bayésienne d’un modèle DSGE des effets de la politique budgétaire sur l’économie camerounaise [Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model of the effects of fiscal policy on the Cameroonian econ," MPRA Paper 113929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2022.
    3. Ngah Ntiga, Louis Henri, 2022. "Estimation Bayésienne d’un modèle DSGE des effets de la politique budgétaire sur l’économie camerounaise," Dynare Working Papers 76, CEPREMAP.
    4. Koffi, Siméon, 2021. "Analyse de la politique budgétaire en Côte d’ivoire à partir d’une estimation Bayésienne d’un modèle d'Equilibre Général Dynamique Stochastique (DSGE) [Analysis of fiscal policy in Côte d’Ivoire us," MPRA Paper 108751, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ercolani, Valerio & Valle e Azevedo, João, 2014. "The effects of public spending externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 173-199.
    2. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    3. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2023. "The liquidity channel of fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 86-117.
    4. Etro, Federico, 2017. "Research in economics and macroeconomics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 373-383.
    5. Banerjee, Ryan & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2019. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 420-436.
    6. Bi, Huixin & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2016. "Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 142-157.
    7. Deák, Szabolcs & Levine, Paul & Pham, Son T., 2024. "Simple mandates, monetary rules, and trend-inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 757-790, June.
    8. Gregory E. Givens, 2022. "Unemployment, Partial Insurance, And The Multiplier Effects Of Government Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 571-599, May.
    9. Johannes Hermanus Kemp & Hylton Hollander, 2020. "A medium-sized, open-economy, fiscal DSGE model of South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-92, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Eric Sims & Jonathan Wolff, 2018. "The Output And Welfare Effects Of Government Spending Shocks Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1403-1435, August.
    11. repec:cfe:wpcefa:2014_07 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    13. Quaghebeur, Ewoud, 2019. "Learning And The Size Of The Government Spending Multiplier," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(8), pages 3189-3224, December.
    14. Vybhavi Balasundharam & Olivier Basdevant & Dalmacio Benicio & Andrew Ceber & Yujin Kim & Luca Mazzone & Hoda Selim & Yongzheng Yang, 2023. "Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design," IMF Working Papers 2023/063, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Patrick Fève & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2015. "On the size of the government spending multiplier in the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 531-552.
    16. Axelle Ferriere & Gaston Navarro, 2025. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: It’s All About Taxes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(2), pages 1061-1125.
    17. Hur, Joonyoung & Rhee, Wooheon, 2020. "Multipliers of expected vs. unexpected fiscal shocks: The case of Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 244-254.
    18. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Luca Pieroni, 2021. "Can public spending boost private consumption?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1275-1313, November.
    19. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.
    20. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    21. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    New-Keynesian model; Fiscal multipliers effect; Non-Ricardian household; Fiscal and monetary policy; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97874. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.