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The Keynesian multiplier, news and fiscal policy rules in a DSGE model

Listed author(s):
  • Perendia, George
  • Tsoukis, Chris

We extend the standard Smets-Wouters (2007) medium-sized DSGE model in two directions, namely to analyse the effects of news and the Keynesian multiplier, and secondly to incorporate a fiscal policy rule. We show that both the news channel and the government spending fiscal policy rule significantly improve the model fit to data. News shows up significantly, but most of its contribution comes from the fiscal rule as opposed to consumption. We then calculate the fiscal multipliers which appear more Keynesian (with a higher effect on output and a positive effect on consumption, more persistent) than argued in much preceding literature.

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Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series Dynare Working Papers with number 25.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:025
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  1. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2016. "Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 968-983, December.
  2. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
  3. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Smets, Frank, 2009. "Imperfect information and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 38-56.
  4. Aiyagari, S. Rao & Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 73-86, October.
  5. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
  6. John B. Taylor, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 686-702, September.
  7. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
  8. Heijdra, Ben J, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers: The Role of Monopolistic Competition, Scale Economies, and Intertemporal Substitution in Labour Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 659-696, August.
  9. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
  10. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
  11. Mulligan Casey B, 2011. "Simple Analytics and Empirics of the Government Spending Multiplier and Other "Keynesian" Paradoxes," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, June.
  12. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-127, March.
  13. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  14. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
  15. Heijdra, Ben J & Ligthart, Jenny E & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1998. "Fiscal Policy, Distortionary Taxation, and Direct Crowding Out under Monopolistic Competition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 79-88, January.
  16. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2012. "Endogenous Persistence in an estimated DSGE Model Under Imperfect Information," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1287-1312, December.
  17. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1988. "Imperfect competition and the Keynesian cross," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 7-13.
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