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The Keynesian multiplier, news and fiscal policy rules in a DSGE model

  • Perendia, George
  • Tsoukis, Chris

We extend the standard Smets-Wouters (2007) medium-sized DSGE model in two directions, namely to analyse the effects of news and the Keynesian multiplier, and secondly to incorporate a fiscal policy rule. We show that both the news channel and the government spending fiscal policy rule significantly improve the model fit to data. News shows up significantly, but most of its contribution comes from the fiscal rule as opposed to consumption. We then calculate the fiscal multipliers which appear more Keynesian (with a higher effect on output and a positive effect on consumption, more persistent) than argued in much preceding literature.

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Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series Dynare Working Papers with number 25.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:025
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  1. John B. Taylor, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 686-702, September.
  2. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
  3. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 15714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999. "Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Heijdra, Ben J & Ligthart, Jenny E & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1998. "Fiscal Policy, Distortionary Taxation, and Direct Crowding Out under Monopolistic Competition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 79-88, January.
  6. S. Rao Aiyagari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 25, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Imperfect Competition and the Keynesian Cross," NBER Working Papers 2386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2010. "Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information," CDMA Working Paper Series 201002, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  9. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2011. "How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?," IMF Working Papers 11/52, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Heijdra, Ben J, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers: The Role of Monopolistic Competition, Scale Economies, and Intertemporal Substitution in Labour Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 659-96, August.
  11. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Smets, Frank, 2010. "Imperfect information and the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-27, March.
  13. Mulligan Casey B, 2011. "Simple Analytics and Empirics of the Government Spending Multiplier and Other "Keynesian" Paradoxes," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-47, June.
  14. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Woong Yong Park & Jae Won Lee & Saroj Bhattarai, 2012. "Policy Regimes, Policy Shifts, and U.S. Business Cycles," 2012 Meeting Papers 287, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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