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The Keynesian multiplier, news and fiscal policy rules in a DSGE model

  • Perendia, George
  • Tsoukis, Chris

We extend the standard Smets-Wouters (2007) medium-sized DSGE model in two directions, namely to analyse the effects of news and the Keynesian multiplier, and secondly to incorporate a fiscal policy rule. We show that both the news channel and the government spending fiscal policy rule significantly improve the model fit to data. News shows up significantly, but most of its contribution comes from the fiscal rule as opposed to consumption. We then calculate the fiscal multipliers which appear more Keynesian (with a higher effect on output and a positive effect on consumption, more persistent) than argued in much preceding literature.

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Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series Dynare Working Papers with number 25.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpm:dynare:025
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  1. S. Rao Aiyagari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 25, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Heijdra, Ben J, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers: The Role of Monopolistic Competition, Scale Economies, and Intertemporal Substitution in Labour Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 659-96, August.
  3. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 7236, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Drautzburg, Thorsten & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-037, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  5. Saroj Bhattarai & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2012. "Policy regimes, policy shifts, and U.S. business cycles," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 109, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  7. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-27, March.
  8. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & George Perendia & Bo Yang, 2010. "Endogenous Persistence in an Estimated DSGE Model under Imperfect Information," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0310, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  9. Casey B. Mulligan, 2010. "Simple Analytics and Empirics of the Government Spending Multiplier and Other "Keynesian" Paradoxes," NBER Working Papers 15800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Woodford, Michael, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 7704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Online Appendix to "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation"," Technical Appendices 14-44, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  12. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  13. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
  14. Heijdra, Ben J & Ligthart, Jenny E & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1998. "Fiscal Policy, Distortionary Taxation, and Direct Crowding Out under Monopolistic Competition," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 79-88, January.
  15. Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Smets, Frank, 2010. "Imperfect information and the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
  17. John B. Taylor, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s," Discussion Papers 10-031, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  18. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1988. "Imperfect competition and the Keynesian cross," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 7-13.
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