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Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy: Stylized Facts from Singapore

  • Keen Meng Choy

    (Division of Economics,School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore)

This paper is an empirical exercise that seeks to reveal the nature of economic fluctuations in the archetypal small open economy of Singapore. We assess the extent to which local business cycles are influenced by their foreign counterparts with regards to cyclicality, co-movement and volatility characteristics and then document how shock waves from abroad are spread to the broader macroeconomy once they reach Singapore’s shores. To do this, we make use of linear filters and stochastic trend models to extract the cyclical component of economic activity. The results indicate that, while idiosyncrasies are present in Singapore’s macroeconomic fluctuations, there are also stylized facts to be distilled for small open economies.

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File URL: http://www.ntu.edu.sg/hss2/egc/wp/2006/2006-11.pdf
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Paper provided by Nanyang Technological University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre in its series Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series with number 0611.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nan:wpaper:0611
Contact details of provider: Postal: Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637332
Fax: 6795 5797
Web page: http://egc.hss.ntu.edu.sg/

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  1. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, August.
  2. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  3. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
  4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, August.
  5. Tilak Abeysinghe & Kristin Forbes, 2005. "Trade Linkages and Output-Multiplier Effects: a Structural VAR Approach with a Focus on Asia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 356-375, 05.
  6. Paul Cashin & Sam Ouliaris, 2004. "Key Features of Australian Business Cycles," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 39-58, 03.
  7. Abeysinghe, Tilak, 2001. "Estimation of direct and indirect impact of oil price on growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 147-153, November.
  8. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
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