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Citations for "The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank"

by Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S.

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  1. Pederzoli, Chiara & Torricelli, Costanza, 2005. "Capital requirements and business cycle regimes: Forward-looking modelling of default probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3121-3140, December.
  2. Nakaota, Hiroshi, 2005. "The term structure of interest rates in Japan: the predictability of economic activity," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 311-326, August.
  3. Anna Piretti & Charles St-Arnaud, 2006. "Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies," Staff Working Papers 06-22, Bank of Canada.
  4. Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit & Mariam Camarero, 2008. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure in the Euro area:," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(3), pages 1-15.
  5. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
  6. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
  7. Donati, Paola & Donati, Francesco, 2008. "Modelling and Forecasting the Yield Curve under Model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0917, European Central Bank.
  8. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: A multicountry regime-switching analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  9. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 0691, European Central Bank.
  11. M. Dueker & K. Wesche, 1999. "European Business Cycles: New Indices and Analysis of their Synchronicity," Discussion Paper Serie B 448, University of Bonn, Germany.
  12. Duarte, Agustin & Venetis, Ioannis A. & Paya, Ivan, 2005. "Predicting real growth and the probability of recession in the Euro area using the yield spread," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 261-277.
  13. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2013. "Time series non-linearity in the real growth / recession-term spread relationship," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 047, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  14. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
  15. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Arturo Bris & Yrjö Koskinen & Mattias Nilsson, 2009. "The Euro and Corporate Valuations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(8), pages 3171-3209, August.
  17. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-60, May.
  18. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
  19. Abbas Valadkhani, 2003. "Does The Term Structure Predict Australia’S Future Output Growth?," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 139, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  20. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2002. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," DFAEII Working Papers 2002-33, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  21. Kizys, Renatas & Paltalidis, Nikos & Vergos, Konstantinos, 2016. "The quest for banking stability in the euro area: The role of government interventions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 111-133.
  22. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  23. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2012. "The dynamics of housing returns in Singapore: How important are the international transmission mechanisms?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 516-530.
  24. Claus Brand & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Franz Seitz, 2003. "Narrow Money and the Business Cycle: Theoretical aspects and euro area evdence," Macroeconomics 0303012, EconWPA.
  25. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros Migiakis, 2010. "European sovereign bond spreads: monetary unification, market conditions and financial integration," Working Papers 115, Bank of Greece.
  26. William English & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Edda Zoli, 2005. "Assessing the predictive power of measures of financial conditions for macroeconomic variables," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 228-52 Bank for International Settlements.
  27. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Frank Smets, 1997. "Why does the yield curve predict economic activity? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States," BIS Working Papers 49, Bank for International Settlements.
  28. Alonso Gomez & John M Maheu & Alex Maynard, 2008. "Improving Forecasts of Inflation using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers tecipa-319, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  29. van den Hauwe, Sjoerd & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Bayesian forecasting of federal funds target rate decisions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 19-40.
  30. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-42.
  31. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "On The Term Structure of South African Interest Rates: Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," MPRA Paper 67681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Phil Bodman, . "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric in Australia?," MRG Discussion Paper Series 0406, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  33. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
  34. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20141803 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Michael J. Dueker, 1998. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in qualitative response models of time series: a Gibbs sampling approach to the bank prime rate," Working Papers 1998-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  36. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
  37. Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2009. "Financial variables and euro area growth: A non-parametric causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1414-1419, November.
  38. Jesus Vazquez, 2004. "Does the Term Spread Play a Role in the Fed's Reaction Function? An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 52, Society for Computational Economics.
  39. Farshid Vahid & Lin Luo, 2004. "Forecasting Australian GDP Growth Using Coefficients Constrained by A Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 232, Econometric Society.
  40. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  41. Chadha, J.S. & Holly, S., 2006. "Macroeconomic Models and the Yield Curve: An assessment of the Fit," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0640, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  42. Hiroshi Nakaota & Yuichi Fukuta, 2013. "The Leading Indicator Property of the Term Spread and the Monetary Policy Factors in Japan," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-09, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Jul 2013.
  43. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2016. "Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-311.
  44. Irem Batool & Gernot Sieg, 2009. "Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 151-165, October.
  45. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  46. In Choi & Seong Jin Hwang, 2012. "Forecasting Korean inflation," Working Papers 1202, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
  47. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2008. "Changes in the informational content of term spreads: Is monetary policy becoming less effective?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 415-435.
  48. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2005. "Establishing Credibility: Evolving Perceptions of the European Central Bank," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp105, IIIS.
  49. Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November.
  50. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 13245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Lekkos, Ilias & Milas, Costas, 2004. "Time-varying excess returns on UK government bonds: A non-linear approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-62, January.
  52. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:3:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Gogas, Periklis & Chionis, Dionisios & Pragkidis, Ioannis, 2009. "Predicting European Union recessions in the euro era: The yield curve as a forecasting tool of economic activity," MPRA Paper 13911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. He, Xiaoli & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard & Ligthart, Jenny, 2013. "On the impact of the global financial crisis on the euro area," Research Report 13011-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  56. María-Dolores, Ramón & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2008. "Term Structure and the Estimated Monetary Policy Rule in the Eurozone," DFAEII Working Papers 2008-05, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  57. Jelena Zubkova, 2003. "Interest Rate Term Structure in Latvia in the Monetary Policy Context," Working Papers 2003/03, Latvijas Banka.
  58. Harald Grech, 2004. "What Do German Short-Term Interest Rates Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Working Papers 94, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  59. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
  60. Hanna Putkuri, 2004. "Cross-country asymmetries in euro area monetary transmission: the role of national financial systems," Macroeconomics 0404037, EconWPA.
  61. Putkuri, Hanna, 2003. "Cross-country asymmetries in euro area monetary transmission : The role of national financial systems," Research Discussion Papers 15/2003, Bank of Finland.
  62. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  63. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  64. Leo Krippner, 2005. "Investigating the Relationships between the Yield Curve, Output and Inflation using an Arbitrage-Free Version of the Nelson and Siegel Class of Yield Curve Models," Working Papers in Economics 05/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  65. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," Papers 1005.1326, arXiv.org.
  66. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
  68. Hyde, Stuart & Sherif, Mohamed, 2010. "Consumption asset pricing and the term structure," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 99-109, February.
  69. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July.
  70. Ludger Lindlar & Wolfgang Scheremet, 1998. "Germany's Slump Explaining the Unemployment Crisis of the 1990s," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 169, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  71. Nii Ayi Armah & Norman Swanson, 2011. "Some variables are more worthy than others: new diffusion index evidence on the monitoring of key economic indicators," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 43-60.
  72. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
  73. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  74. Raffaele Passaro, 2007. "The Predictive Power of Interest Rates Spread for Economic Activity," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 81-112, November-.
  75. repec:mur:wpaper:4699 is not listed on IDEAS
  76. Bellégo, C. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Forecasting Euro-area recessions using time-varying binary response models for financial," Working papers 259, Banque de France.
  77. Leo Krippner, 2003. "Modelling the Yield Curve with Orthonomalised Laguerre Polynomials: An Intertemporally Consistent Approach with an Economic Interpretation," Working Papers in Economics 03/01, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  78. Francesco Audrino & Kameliya Filipova, 2009. "Yield Curve Predictability, Regimes, and Macroeconomic Information: A Data-Driven Approach," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2009 2009-10, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  79. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2015. "The information content of money and credit for US activity," Working Paper Series 1803, European Central Bank.
  80. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  81. Ahrens, R., 2002. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: a multicountry regime-switching analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 519-537, August.
  82. George A. Waters, 2013. "Quantity versus Price Rationing of Credit: An Empirical Test," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(3), pages 45, July.
  83. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Maria Matthaiou & Efthymia Chrysanthidou, 2014. "Yield curve and Recession Forecasting in a Machine Learning Framework," Working Paper Series 32_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  84. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Staff Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
  85. Herrera, Santiago & Perry, Guillermo, 2001. "Tropical bubbles : asset prices in Latin America, 1980-2001," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2724, The World Bank.
  86. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
  87. Fritsche Ulrich & Kuzin Vladimir, 2005. "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany / Prognose konjunktureller Wendepunkte in Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(1), pages 22-43, February.
  88. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  89. Hogrefe, Jens, 2007. "The yield spread and GDP growth - Time Varying Leading Properties and the Role of Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers 2007,12, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  90. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  91. repec:kap:iaecre:v:16:y:2010:i:1:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  92. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
  93. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  94. Duarte, A. & Venetis, I. & Payá, I., 2004. "Curva de rendimientos y crecimiento de la producción real en la UEM: eficiencia y estabilidad predictiva./Yield Curve and Real Output Growth in the EMU: Efficiency and Predictive Stability," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 21, Abril.
  95. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Deutschland: Stabilisierung der Produktion auf niedrigen Niveau," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28847, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  96. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  97. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society.
  98. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
  99. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2002. "Do Leading Indicators Help to Predict Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 314, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  100. Periklis Gogas & Theophilos Papadimitriou & Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "The Informational Content of the Term-Spread in Forecasting the U.S. Inflation Rate: A Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers 201548, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  101. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund.
  102. Nakaota, Hiroshi & Fukuta, Yuichi, 2013. "The leading indicator property of the term spread and the monetary policy factors in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 85-98.
  103. Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2007. "Three aspects of the Swiss term structure: an empirical survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(2), pages 221-240, June.
  104. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Chen, Nan-Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2009. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," MPRA Paper 23514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  105. Viktor Kotlan, 2002. "Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2002/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  106. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1998. "Modelling asymmetric persistence over the business cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9852, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  107. Verbeke, Tom & De Clercq, Marc, 2006. "The income-environment relationship: Evidence from a binary response model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(4), pages 419-428, October.
  108. Ulrich Fritsche, 2001. "Do probit models help in forecasting turning points of German business cycles?," Macroeconomics 0012022, EconWPA.
  109. Johannes Peyavali Sheefeni Sheefeni & Teresia Kaulihowa, 2016. "Examining the Relationship between Term Structure of Interest Rates and Economic Activity in Namibia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(9), pages 161-168, 09-2016.
  110. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
  111. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
  112. Fabian Lipinsky & Li Lian Ong, 2014. "Asia’s Stock Markets; Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?," IMF Working Papers 14/37, International Monetary Fund.
  113. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "The yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 100-107.
  114. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  115. Chiarella Carl & Semmler Willi & Mittnik Stefan & Zhu Peiyuan, 2002. "Stock Market, Interest Rate and Output: A Model and Estimation for US Time Series Data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-39, April.
  116. Skinner, Frank S. & Mason, Andrew, 2011. "Covered interest rate parity in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 355-363.
  117. Giuseppe Marotta & Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2005. "Forward-looking estimation of default probabilities with Italian data," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0504, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
  118. Sedillot, F., 1999. "La pente des taux contient-elle de l'information sur l'activite economique future?," Working papers 67, Banque de France.
  119. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  120. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico
    [Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]
    ," MPRA Paper 67741, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  121. Viktor Kotlán, 2001. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates in a small open economy - a model framework approach," Macroeconomics 0110003, EconWPA.
  122. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  123. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
  124. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2013. "In the Shadow of the U nited S tates: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 1-40, 02.
  125. Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze, 2006. "A generalised dynamic factor model for the Belgian economy - Useful business cycle indicators and GDP growth forecasts," Working Paper Research 80, National Bank of Belgium.
  126. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
  127. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2009. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2009," Kiel Discussion Papers 466/467, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  128. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: The Role of Decomposed Term-Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201680, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  129. Ulrich FRITSCHE & Vladimir KOUZINE, . "Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany," EcoMod2004 330600054, EcoMod.
  130. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2005. "The term structure as a predictor of real activity and inflation in the euro area: a reassessment," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 177-92 Bank for International Settlements.
  131. Olena Chyruk & Luca Benzoni & Andrea Ajello, 2012. "Core and `Crust': Consumer Prices and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 922, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  132. Ricardo Gimeno & José Manuel Marqués, 2009. "Extraction of financial market expectations about inflation and interest rates from a liquid market," Working Papers 0906, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  133. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2003. "The role of the term spread in an augmented Taylor rule: An empirical investigation," DFAEII Working Papers 2003-07, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  134. Ramón Maria-Dolores & Jesus Vazquez, 2006. "The relative importance of Term Spread, Policy Inertia and Persistent Monetary Policy Shocks in Monetary Policy Rules," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 6, Society for Computational Economics.
  135. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  136. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Do Financial Variables Provide Information about the Swiss Business Cycle ?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  137. Yano, Takashi & Kosaka, Hiroyuki, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis on Optimal Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in EMU Countries," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa090, European Regional Science Association.
  138. Ulrich Fritsche & Felix Marklein, 2001. "Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles," Macroeconomics 0012021, EconWPA.
  139. Ferreira García, María Eva & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo & Martínez, María Isabel & Navarro, Eliseo, 2005. "Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe," DFAEII Working Papers 2005-11, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  140. James L. Butkiewicz & Kim Lane Leong Long, 2003. "Predicting Interwar Business Cycles with the Interest Rate Yield Spread," Working Papers 03-07, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  141. Menachem Brenner & Meir Sokoler, 2010. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from the Financial Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 295-311.
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