My bibliography
Save this item
Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Emilia Tomczyk & Barbara Kowalczyk, 2023. "Consensus in Business Tendency Surveys: Comparison of Alternative Measures," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 17-29.
- Clements, Michael P., 2010.
"Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269881, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019.
"From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts,"
Working Papers
1947, Banco de España.
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "From Fixed-Event to Fixed-Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-Horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts," Working Papers 1142, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: Obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1689, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022.
"Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Sheng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," CESifo Working Paper Series 5468, CESifo.
- Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Sheng, 2020. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8810, CESifo.
- Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019.
"Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
- Olesya V. Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne, 2017. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty : A US and Euro Area Comparison," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Saijo, Hikaru, 2017. "The uncertainty multiplier and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-25.
- Gambetti, Paolo & Gauthier, Geneviève & Vrins, Frédéric, 2019.
"Recovery rates: Uncertainty certainly matters,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 371-383.
- Gambetti, Paolo & Gauthier, Geneviève & Vrins, Frédéric, 2019. "Recovery rates: Uncertainty certainly matters," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2019007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Smith, R. Todd & van Egteren, Henry, 2005. "Inflation, investment and economic performance: The role of internal financing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1283-1303, July.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003.
"Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014.
"Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
4736, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 86257, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Hashem Pesaran & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1407, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Dopke, Jorg & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2006. "When do forecasters disagree? An assessment of German growth and inflation forecast dispersion," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 125-135.
- Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
- Christian D. Dick & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2010-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "Macro expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-064, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2024. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multiwave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 81-114, February.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2021. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 16417, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ana Galvao & James Mitchell, 2021. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for U.K. GDP," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2021-06, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
- Ana B. Galvão & James Mitchell, 2021. "Communicating Data Uncertainty: Multi-Wave Experimental Evidence for UK GDP," Working Papers 21-28R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 13 Jul 2022.
- Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 514-538.
- Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2008. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," ifo Working Paper Series 60, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2009. "Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link," Discussion Papers 09-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
- Paolo Gambetti & Francesco Roccazzella & Frédéric Vrins, 2022. "Meta-Learning Approaches for Recovery Rate Prediction," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-29, June.
- Gambetti, Paolo & Roccazzella, Francesco & Vrins, Frédéric, 2020. "Meta-learning approaches for recovery rate prediction," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2020007, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Gambetti, Paolo & Roccazzella, Francesco & Vrins, Frédéric, 2022. "Meta-Learning Approaches for Recovery Rate Prediction," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2022011, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
- Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional 0405006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jordan Tong & Daniel Feiler, 2017. "A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3609-3627, November.
- Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2015. "What future for taxation in the EU?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 5-13.
- Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2015. "What future for taxation in the EU ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6m2bi4eoh48, Sciences Po.
- Robin C. Sickles & Jiaqi Hao & Chenjun Shang, 2014. "Panel data and productivity measurement: an analysis of Asian productivity trends," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 211-231, August.
- Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
- Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2017, volume 32, pages 411-471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles F. Manski, 2017. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Working Papers 23418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. E. Bontempi & M. Frigeri & R. Golinelli & M. Squadrani, 2019. "Uncertainty, Perception and the Internet," Working Papers wp1134, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Sickles, Robin C. & Hao, Jiaqi & Shang, Chenjun, 2015. "Panel Data and Productivity Measurement," Working Papers 15-018, Rice University, Department of Economics.
- Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37, Bank of Finland.
- Kapuściński, Mariusz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2018. "Measuring bank funding costs in the analysis of interest rate pass-through: Evidence from Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-300.
- Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
- Klodiana Istrefi & Sarah Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy : a cross-country analysis," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 48, september.
- K. Istrefi & S. Mouabbi, 2017. "Subjective Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Macroeconomy: A Cross-country Analysis," Working papers 619, Banque de France.
- Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1998. "High and Uncertain Inflation: Results from a New Data Set," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 218-230, May.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão & James Mitchell, 2023. "Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 457-481, June.
- Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," EMF Research Papers 35, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
- Fracasso, Andrea & Secchi, Angelo & Tomasi, Chiara, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 135-152.
- Andrea Fracasso & Angelo Secchi & Chiara Tomasi, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," Post-Print halshs-03673148, HAL.
- Andrea Fracasso & Angelo Secchi & Chiara Tomasi, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-03673148, HAL.
- Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut & Ulm, Maren, 2017. "A comparative assessment of alternative ex ante measures of inflation uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 76-89.
- Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
- Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2010. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-292, April.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2009. "Learning and heterogeneity in GDP and inflation forecasts," MPRA Paper 21448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2009. "Learning and Heterogeneity in GDP and Inflation Forecasts," Discussion Papers 09-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & KennethF. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, July.
- Boero,Gianna & Smith,Jeremy & Wallis,Kenneth F, 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction : the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 811, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2006. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269751, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
- Michael Clements, 2017. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Gamber, Edward N. & Hakes, David R., 2005. "Is monetary policy important for forecasting real growth and inflation?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 177-187, March.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Augusto Marc Rocha Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm391, Yale School of Management.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Svetlana Makarova, 2014. "Risk and Uncertainty: Macroeconomic Perspective," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 129, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
- Song, ChiUng & Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, Herman O., 2009. "Measuring consensus in binary forecasts: NFL game predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 182-191.
- ChiUng Song & Bryan L. Boulier & Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "Measuring Consensus in Binary Forecasts: NFL Game Predictions," Working Papers 2008-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Cukierman, Alex & Lustenberger, Thomas, 2017. "International evidence on professional interest rates forecasts: The impact of forecasting ability," CEPR Discussion Papers 12489, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alex Cukierman & Thomas Lustenberger, 2018. "International Evidence on Professional Interest Rate Forecasts: The Impact of Forecasting Ability," Working Papers 2018-10, Swiss National Bank.
- Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 017, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
- Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," Working Papers e071, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
- Mayumi Ojima & Junnosuke Shino & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "Buyer-Size Discounts and Inflation Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2014-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_037 is not listed on IDEAS
- Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Can the Disparity between GDP and GDP Forecast Cause Economic Instability? The Recent Japanese Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 2(8), pages 155-160, 08-2016.
- Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
- Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers 1811, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2018. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers (Old Series) 1813, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Cho, Dooyeon & Kim, Husang, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: Evidence from Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," IREA Working Papers 201806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," AQR Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jun 2018.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2002. "Copycats and Common Swings: The Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-2.
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001. "Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Refet Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 11-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wolfers, Justin, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1899, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Refet Gurkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Working Papers 11929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic derivatives: an initial analysis of market-based macro forecasts, uncertainty, and risk," Working Paper Series 2005-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Wolfers, Justin & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2006. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 5466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
- Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," Economic Research Papers 270653, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 986, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 11-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1992. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Working Papers 3965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
- Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Todd E. Clark, 1998. "Progress toward price stability : a 1997 inflation report," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q I), pages 5-21.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
- Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
- Sébastien Fries & Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2018. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 763-779, September.
- Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2015. "UK Term Structure Decompositions at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 755, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- S. Fries & J.-S. Mésonnier & S. Mouabbi & J.-P. Renne, 2016. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the Euro Area," Working papers 611, Banque de France.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 287-357.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6322, CESifo.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & van Rooij, Maarten & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim, 2022. "Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 213-231.
- Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
- Blaise Gadanecz & Richhild Moessner & Christian Upper, 2007. "Economic derivatives," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O., 1996. "Is there a consensus among financial forecasters?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 455-464, December.
- Amy Rice & Tugrul Vehbi & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Measuring uncertainty and its impact on the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2018/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Felici, Marco & Kenny, Geoff & Friz, Roberta, 2023. "Consumer savings behaviour at low and negative interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
- Marco Felici & Geoff Kenny & Roberta Friz, 2022. "Consumer Savings Behaviour at Low and Negative Interest Rates," European Economy - Discussion Papers 172, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Felici, Marco & Kenny, Geoff & Friz, Roberta, 2022. "Consumer savings behaviour at low and negative interest rates," Working Paper Series 2736, European Central Bank.
- Tatsuro Senga, 2014. "A New Look at Uncertainty Shocks: Imperfect Information and Misallocation," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 042, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
- Tatsuro Senga, 2015. "New Look at Uncertainty Shocks: Imperfect Information and Misallocation," 2015 Meeting Papers 1373, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Tatsuro Senga, 2015. "A New Look at Uncertainty Shocks: Imperfect Information and Misallocation," Working Papers 763, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2020. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 223-255, January.
- Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2017. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Discussion Papers 39/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- KOMINE Takao & BAN Kanemi & KAWAGOE Masaaki & YOSHIDA Hiroshi, 2009. "What Have We Learned from a Survey of Japanese Professional Forecasters? Taking Stock of Four Years of ESP Forecast Experience," ESRI Discussion paper series 214, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- John Ballingall & Enrico Dorigo & James Hogan & Kirdan Lees, 2020. "A News-Based Approach to Monitoring Trade Policy Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy: The Case of New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/09, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Ivo Welch, 2022. "The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1489-1527, June.
- Ivo Welch, 2020. "The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd," NBER Working Papers 27866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," Economic Research Papers 270629, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Richard D. Farmer, 2006. "Risk-Smoothing Across Time and the Demand for Inventories: A Mean-Variance Approach," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 699-722, Fall.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December.
- Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 384, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Nov 2001.
- Söderlind, Paul, 2000. "Inflation Forecast Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
- Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2011. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement," ifo Working Paper Series 111, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai, 2011. "Testing the uncertainty-investment relationship using survey data on capital stock disequilibrium," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 305-310.
- Fuest, Angela & Schmidt, Torsten, 2017. "Inflation expectation uncertainty, inflation and the output gap," Ruhr Economic Papers 673, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Schmidt, Torsten, 2018. "Inflation Expectation Uncertainty, Inflation and the Outputgap," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181575, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Forecaster heterogeneity, surprises and financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1020, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Conrad, Christian, 2017. "When does information on forecast variance improve the performance of a combined forecast?," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168200, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
- Gauvin, Ludovic & McLoughlin, Cameron & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2014. "Policy uncertainty spillovers to emerging markets – evidence from capital flows," Bank of England working papers 512, Bank of England.
- Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "Fundamental disagreement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 106-128.
- Philippe Andrade & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2013. "Fundamental disagreement," Staff Reports 655, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- P. Andrade & R. Crump & S. Eusepi & E. Moench, 2014. "Fundamental disagreement," Working papers 524, Banque de France.
- Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
- Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
- Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating Fundamental Cross-Section Dispersion from Fixed Event Forecasts," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 787, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200801, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
- Born, Benjamin & Dovern, Jonas & Enders, Zeno, 2023. "Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
- Benjamin Born & Jonas Dovern & Zeno Enders, 2020. "Expectation Dispersion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News," CESifo Working Paper Series 8801, CESifo.
- Born, Benjamin & Dovern, Jonas & Enders, Zeno, 2022. "Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news," CEPR Discussion Papers 15581, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Born, Benjamin & Dovern, Jonas & Enders, Zeno, 2020. "Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news," Working Papers 29, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
- Badarinza, Cristian & Gross, Marco, 2011. "Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations," Working Paper Series 1407, European Central Bank.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
- Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
- Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
- Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "Heterogeneity in Households’ Expectations of Housing Prices – Evidence from Micro Data," Working Papers 2019:11, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "Heterogeneity in Households’ Expectations of Housing Prices – Evidence from Micro Data," Working Paper Series 383, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
- Himounet, Nicolas, 2022. "Searching the nature of uncertainty: Macroeconomic and financial risks VS geopolitical and pandemic risks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-31.
- Nicolas Himounet, 2021. "Searching for the Nature of Uncertainty: Macroeconomic VS Financial," Working Papers 2021.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
- Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 215-228.
- Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0612, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145888, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Crises, market shocks, and herding behavior in stock price forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 919-945, August.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "References," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 535-576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oscar Claveria, 2020. "“Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty”," AQR Working Papers 2012003, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2020.
- Oscar Claveria, 2020. "Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty," IREA Working Papers 202011, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jul 2020.
- Post, Thomas & Hanewald, Katja, 2013. "Longevity risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 200-220.
- Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2011. "Longevity Risk, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," Working Papers 201111, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
- Ahsan Habib & Mabel D Costa, 2022. "Cost stickiness and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(4), pages 4247-4278, December.
- Hartmann, Matthias & Conrad, Christian, 2014. "Cross sectional evidence on the relation between monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions and low-frequency inflation uncertainty," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100477, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Conrad, Christian & Hartmann, Matthias, 2014. "Cross-sectional evidence on the relation between monetary policy, macroeconomic conditions and low-frequency inflation uncertainty," Working Papers 0574, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Basile, Roberto & Girardi, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and Business Cycle: A Review of the Literature and Some Evidence from the Spanish Economy/Incertidumbre y Ciclo Empresarial: Revisión de la literatura y evidencia en la economía española," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 235-250, Enero.
- Berument, Hakan & Yalcin, Yeliz & Yildirim, Julide, 2009. "The effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation: Stochastic volatility in mean model within a dynamic framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1201-1207, November.
- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multicountry Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(8), pages 3393-3445.
- Rebucci, Alessandro & Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2018. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 12713, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2018. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2018. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Multi-Country Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 6910, CESifo.
- Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and economic activity: a multi-country perspective," Bank of England working papers 730, Bank of England.
- Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "ARCH Models for Multi-period Forecast Uncertainty: A Reality Check Using a Panel of Density Forecasts," Advances in Econometrics, in: Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series, pages 321-363, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Liu, Fushang, 2005. "ARCH models for multi-period forecast uncertainty-a reality check using a panel of density forecasts," MPRA Paper 21693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rich, R W & Raymond, J E & Butler, J S, 1992. "The Relationship between Forecast Dispersion and Forecast Uncertainty: Evidence from a Survey Data-ARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 131-148, April-Jun.
- Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
- Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Pooled Estimators vs. Heterogeneous Estimators1," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Andreas Dibiasi & David Iselin, 2021. "Measuring Knightian uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 2113-2141, October.
- David Iselin & Andreas Dibiasi, 2019. "Measuring Knightian Uncertainty," KOF Working papers 19-456, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Andreas Dibiasi, 2021. "Measuring Knightian uncertainty," Post-Print hal-03391638, HAL.
- Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: the case of Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 323-336.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Macroeconomics Uncertainty and Banks' Lending Decisions: The Case of Italy," Discussion Papers 06/02, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: The case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 615, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
- Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2014. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Working Paper Series 1679, European Central Bank.
- Broer, Tobias & Kohlhas, Alexandre, 2018. "Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior," CEPR Discussion Papers 12898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alexandre Kohlhas & Tobias Broer, 2019. "Forecaster (Mis-)Behavior," 2019 Meeting Papers 1171, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Binder, Carola C., 2017. "Measuring uncertainty based on rounding: New method and application to inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-12.
- Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
- repec:hal:spmain:hal-03459745 is not listed on IDEAS
- Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2014. "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 163-185, April.
- Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2011. "How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3671, CESifo.
- Kenny, Geoff & Kostka, Thomas & Masera, Federico, 2012. "How informative are the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists?," Working Paper Series 1446, European Central Bank.
- Kjellberg, David & Post, Erik, 2007. "A Critical Look at Measures of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2007:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Mitchell, James & Mouratidis, Kostas & Weale, Martin, 2007. "Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: Evidence from qualitative survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 245-252, February.
- Dr Martin Weale & Dr. James Mitchell, 2005. "Uncertainty in UK manufacturing: evidence from qualitative survey data," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 266, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Andrew Bauer & Robert A. Eisenbeis & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2003. "Forecast evaluation with cross-sectional data: The Blue Chip Surveys," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 88(Q2), pages 17-31.
- Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
- Gianna Boero & Jeremy Smith & Kenneth F. Wallis, 2008. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Prediction: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1107-1127, July.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6m2bi4eoh48hnr5ile6iol143v is not listed on IDEAS
- Fabian Krüger & Ingmar Nolte, 2011. "Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-43, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
- Ulrich Fritsche & Jörg Döpke, 2006. "Treffgenauigkeit, Rationalität und Streuung von Konjunkturprognosen für Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(2), pages 34-53.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Marco Del Negro, 2022. "A Bayesian Approach to Inference on Probabilistic Surveys," Staff Reports 1025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2016. "Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 849-864.
- Casey, Eddie, 2021. "Are professional forecasters overconfident?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 716-732.
- Harvey, David I. & Newbold, Paul, 2003. "The non-normality of some macroeconomic forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-653.
- Tsyplakov Alexander, 2010. "The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon," EERC Working Paper Series 10/09e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
- Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
- Olivier Armantier & Gizem Koşar & Rachel Pomerantz & Daphne Skandalis & Kyle Smith & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2020. "How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," Staff Reports 949, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Tom Stark, 1997. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Markus Eyting & Patrick Schmidt, 2019. "Belief Elicitation with Multiple Point Predictions," Working Papers 1818, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 16 Nov 2020.
- Peaucelle, Irina, 1996. "Prévisions de court terme pour analyser les réformes en Russie (les)," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9610, CEPREMAP.
- Jan-Christoph Rülke & Maria Silgoner & Julia Wörz, 2012. "Herding Behavior of Business Cycle Forecasters in Times of Economic Crises," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 12-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
- Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2015. "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters Have Predictive Value?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 290-302, July.
- Legerstee, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2010. "Does Disagreement Amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-53, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Rianne Legerstee & Philip Hans Franses, 2010. "Does Disagreement amongst Forecasters have Predictive Value?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-088/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- C. John McDermott, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty from a Central Bank Perspective," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 103-106, March.
- Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
- Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
- Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Eyting, Markus & Schmidt, Patrick, 2021. "Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:037 is not listed on IDEAS
- Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2022. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(3), pages 979-1022, July.
- Alexander Glas & Matthias Hartmann, 2020. "Uncertainty measures from partially rounded probabilistic forecast surveys," Working Papers 427, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2020.
- Hayford, Marc D., 2000. "Inflation Uncertainty, Unemployment Uncertainty and Economic Activity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 315-329, April.
- Leitner, Christoph & Zeileis, Achim & Hornik, Kurt, 2010. "Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EUROÂ 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 471-481, July.
- J. Peter Ferderer & Stephen C. Vogt & Ravi Chahil, 1994. "Liquidity, Uncertainty, and the Declining Predictive Power of the Paper-bill Spread," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_119, Levy Economics Institute.
- O. Grishchenko & S. Mouabbi & J.-P. Renne, 2017. "The Joint Dynamics of U.S. and Euro-area Inflation Rates: Expectations and Time-varying Uncertainty," Working papers 622, Banque de France.
- Nima Nonejad, 2019. "Has the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath changed the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty in member states of the european monetary union?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(2), pages 246-276, May.
- Yongchen Zhao, 2022. "Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 810-828, July.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Maassen, N.R., 2015. "Consensus forecasters: How good are they individually and why?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Scott Schuh, 2001. "An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 35-56.
- Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Staff Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.
- Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
- Robert W. Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2012. "The measurement and behavior of uncertainty: evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Staff Reports 588, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Diego Ferreira & Andreza Aparecida Palma, 2018. "Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Latin America: A Time-Varying Stochastic Volatility In Mean Approach," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 125, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Clements, Michael P., 2018. "Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-198.
- Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Atalla, Tarek & Joutz, Fred & Pierru, Axel, 2016. "Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect volatility? Evidence from the ECB surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1178-1192.
- Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Rounding bias in forecast uncertainty," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(4), pages 277-291.
- da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2021. "Measuring the effects of expectations shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
- Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2019. "Measuring the Effects of Expectations Shocks," EMF Research Papers 31, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
- Driver, Ciaran & Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Real options -- delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-545, March.
- ARATA Yoshiyuki & KIMURA Yosuke & MURAKAMI Hiroki, 2015. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Lumpy Investment under Uncertainty," Discussion papers 15120, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Leopold Sögner, 2023. "Financial and economic uncertainties and their effects on the economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 481-521, May.
- Oscar Claveria, 2021. "On the Aggregation of Survey-Based Economic Uncertainty Indicators Between Different Agents and Across Variables," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 1-26, April.
- Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Thomas Post & Katja Hanewald, 2010. "Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
- Fintzen, David & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 309-323, July.
- Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
- Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modelling multi‐period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219, December.
- Kajal Lahiri & Fushang Liu, 2006. "Modeling Multi-Period Inflation Uncertainty Using a Panel of Density Forcasts," Discussion Papers 06-05, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
- Hermann Sintim-Aboagye & Chandana Chakraborty & Serapio Byekwaso, 2012. "Uncertainty of inflation and inflation rate: Does credibility of inflation policy matter?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 95-110, September.
- Rossi, Barbara & Ganics, Gergely & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Foreca," CEPR Discussion Papers 14267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 148-161, March.
- Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2015. "Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," CSEF Working Papers 421, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
- Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 365-387, May.
- Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sayg�n Sahinoz, 2018. "Quantifying Uncertainty and Identifying its Impacts on the Turkish Economy," Working Papers 1806, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2009. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-45.
- Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2006. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017. "Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
- Steffen Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2013. "Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: A common factor analysis," ifo Working Paper Series 167, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Steffen Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2014. "Dimensions of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4991, CESifo.
- Henzel, Steffen R. & Rengel, Malte, 2017. "Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: a common factor analysis," Munich Reprints in Economics 49932, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Crockett, Jean A., 1998. "Rational expectations, inflation and the nominal interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 349-363.
- Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2017. "The behavior of uncertainty and disagreement and their roles in economic prediction: a panel analysis," Staff Reports 808, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2021. "Measuring macroeconomic disagreement – A mixed frequency approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 547-566.
- BAN Kanemi & KAWAGOE Masaaki & MATSUOKA Hideaki, 2013. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to ESPF," ESRI Discussion paper series 302, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
- Yun Shin Lee & Enno Siemsen, 2017. "Task Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3226-3245, October.
- Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
- Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith & Matthew Weiss, 2008. "Forecast Errors Before and After the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2008-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2009.
- Timur Hulagu & Saygin Sahinoz, 2011. "Enflasyon Belirsizligi ve Beklentilerdeki Uyusmazlik," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1104, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2008. "Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brian O'Reilly, 1998. "The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Shock "A nickel ain't worth a dime any more" [Yogi Berra]," Technical Reports 83, Bank of Canada.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Killian, 2016. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 287-357.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is this Time Different?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6322, CESifo Group Munich.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2017. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 95-114, May.
- Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2015. "What future for taxation in the EU?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 5-13.
- Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2015. "What future for taxation in the EU ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459745, HAL.
- Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2015. "What future for taxation in the EU ?," Post-Print hal-03459745, HAL.
- Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2015. "What future for taxation in the EU ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6m2bi4eoh48, Sciences Po.
- Hikaru Saijo, 2014. "The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles," Working Papers e067, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
- Ricardo Reis, 2013. "Central Bank Design," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 17-44, Fall.
- Ricardo Reis, 2013. "Central Bank Design," NBER Working Papers 19187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Measuring Uncertainty with Survey Data," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(16), pages 25-29, August.
- Clements, Michael P., 2021. "Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 634-646.
- Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
- William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2002. "Evaluating FOMC forecasts," Working Papers 2001-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Lauren K. Fine & Stephen K. McNees, 1994. "Diversity, uncertainty, and accuracy of inflation forecasts," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 33-44.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
- Fabian Krüger, 2017. "Survey-based forecast distributions for Euro Area growth and inflation: ensembles versus histograms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 235-246, August.
- Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum & David S. Laster, 1997. "Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts," Staff Reports 21, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jon Strand, 1996. "Employment and wages with sector-specific shocks and worker moral hazard," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 151-173, June.
- Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 257-267.
- Knüppel, Malte, 2009. "Efficient estimation of forecast uncertainty based on recent forecast errors," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,28, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
- Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2013. "Banks, Asset Management or Consultancies' Inflation Forecasts: is there a better forecaster out there?," Working Papers Series 310, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Dan & Mirza, Nawazish & Zhong, Yifan & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The impact of consumer confidence on oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
- Baetje, Fabian & Friedrici, Karola, 2016. "Does cross-sectional forecast dispersion proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty? New empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 38-43.
- Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
- Li, You & Tay, Anthony, 2021. "The role of macroeconomic and policy uncertainty in density forecast dispersion," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Ingrid Lo & Stephen Sapp, 2011. "Belief Dispersion and Order Submission Strategies in the Foreign Exchange Market," Staff Working Papers 11-8, Bank of Canada.
- Schanne, Norbert, 2012. "The formation of experts' expectations on labour markets : do they run with the pack?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201225, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Heiss, Florian & Hurd, Michael & Rossmann, Tobias & Winter, Joachim & van Rooij, Maarten, 2019. "Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Subjective Stock Market Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 157, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
- Florian Heiss & Michael Hurd & Maarten van Rooij & Tobias Rossmann & Joachim Winter, 2019. "Dynamics and heterogeneity of subjective stock market expectations," DNB Working Papers 640, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Tsvetomira Tsenova, 2015. "Are Long-Term Inflation Expectations Well-Anchored? Evidence From The Euro Area And The United States," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 65-82, January.
- Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
- Onkal, Dilek & Muradoglu, Gulnur, 1996. "Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-24, March.
- Herwartz, Helmut & Rohloff, Hannes, 2018. "Less bang for the buck? Assessing the role of inflation uncertainty for U.S. monetary policy transmission in a data rich environment," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 358, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
- Stefania D'Amico & Athanasios Orphanides, 2014. "Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia," Working Paper Series WP-2014-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Yoshiyuki Arata & Yosuke Kimura & Hiroki Murakami, 2017. "Aggregate implications of lumpy investment under heterogeneity and uncertainty: a model of collective behavior," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 311-333, December.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2014. "Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 77.
- Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4736, CESifo.
- Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6605, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Hashem Pesaran & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & Alessandro Rebucci, 2014. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1407, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pedraza Morales, Alvaro, 2014. "Strategic information revelation and capital allocation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6995, The World Bank.
- Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2014. "How anchored are inflation expectations in Asia? Evidence from surveys of professional forecasters," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 181-191, Bank for International Settlements.
- Dario Rukelj & Barbara Ulloa, 2011. "Incorporating uncertainties into economic forecasts: an application to forecasting economic activity in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(2), pages 140-170.
- Montserrat Guillen & Miguel Santolino & Xenxo Vidal-Llana, 2022. ""Inequality of subjective economic uncertainty and individual economic prospects in the pandemic period"," IREA Working Papers 202202, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2022.
- Félix, Luiz & Kräussl, Roman & Stork, Philip, 2018. "Predictable biases in macroeconomic forecasts and their impact across asset classes," CFS Working Paper Series 596, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1989. "Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Hypotheses of Sticky Wages and Prices (SEE ALSO WP3132-send out together)," NBER Working Papers 3131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vasyl Golosnoy & Yarema Okhrin, 2015. "Using information quality for volatility model combinations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 1055-1073, June.
- Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Basil Guggenheim & Matthias Jüttner, 2019. "A survey-based estimation of the Swiss franc forward term premium," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-18, December.
- Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
- McKenzie, Jordi, 2011. "Mean absolute percentage error and bias in economic forecasting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 259-262.
- ter Ellen, Saskia & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2019. "Agreeing on disagreement: Heterogeneity or uncertainty?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 17-30.
- Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2016. "Agreeing on disagreement: heterogeneity or uncertainty?," Working Paper 2016/4, Norges Bank.
- Rülke, Jan-Christoph & Silgoner, Maria & Wörz, Julia, 2016. "Herding behavior of business cycle forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-33.
- Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor, 2004. "The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
- Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
- Alexander, Marcus & Christakis, Nicholas A., 2008. "Bias and asymmetric loss in expert forecasts: A study of physician prognostic behavior with respect to patient survival," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1095-1108, July.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.
- Yongchen Zhao, 2022. "Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 810-828, July.
- Yongchen Zhao, 2021. "Uncertainty and Disagreement of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Household-Level Qualitative Survey Responses," Working Papers 2021-03, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2021.