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Zur Messung der Unsicherheit mit Befragungsdaten

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Ökonomische Unsicherheit ist nicht direkt beobachtbar. Eine Operationalisierung ist, Unsicherheit als Dispersion der in den Unternehmensbefragungen des ifo Instituts geäußerten Zukunftseinschätzungen zu messen. Auf den Geschäftserwartungen der befragten Unternehmen aufbauende Dispersionsmaße für die Sektoren Industrie, Bauhauptgewerbe, Groß- und Einzelhandel sowie Dienstleistungen sind im ifo Schnelldienst 15/2017 vorgestellt worden. In dem Artikel werden Dispersionsmaße auf der Basis sämtlicher in den ifo Konjunkturumfragen enthaltenen sektorenspezifischen Erwartungsfragen konstruiert. Es wird gezeigt, dass die so berechneten Maße mit Dispersionsmaßen korrelieren, die sich allein auf die Geschäftserwartungen der Firmen stützen. Dieses Ergebnis deutet darauf hin, dass die Dispersion der Geschäftserwartungen als Grundlage für sektorale Dispersionsmaße sowie sektorenübergreifende Maße dienen kann. Derartige Maße werden seit August 2017 vom ifo Institut im Rahmen der monatlichen Ergebnisse der ifo Konjunkturumfragen für Deutschland veröffentlicht. Sie dienen als Konstrukte, um sowohl die Unsicherheit in ausgewählten Wirtschaftsbereichen – Verarbeitendes Gewerbe, Bauhauptgewerbe, Groß- und Einzelhandel sowie Dienstleistungen – als auch die Unsicherheit im gesamten privaten Sektor abzuschätzen. Dass die Dispersion der Geschäftserwartungen für die einzelnen Sektoren entweder mit gewissen Einzelfragen oder aber mit den Durchschnitten stark korreliert, kann als Motivation für zukünftige vertiefte Forschung über die sektorenspezifischen Eigenheiten der Unsicherheit dienen.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Zur Messung der Unsicherheit mit Befragungsdaten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(16), pages 25-29, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:16:p:25-29
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2017-16-abberger-nierhaus-unsicherheit-2017-08-24.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Bowles, Carlos & Friz, Roberta & Meyler, Aidan & Rautanen, Tuomas, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) - A review after eight years' experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
    5. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory

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