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Belief Dispersion and Order Submission Strategies in the Foreign Exchange Market

  • Ingrid Lo
  • Stephen Sapp
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    This paper empirically examines how dispersions across investors beliefs influence traders order submission decisions in the foreign exchange market. Previous research has found that dispersion in traders beliefs regarding future macroeconomic announcements has a significant impact on both price dynamics and trading volume before the announcements in the foreign exchange and other financial markets. However, little is known about how this dispersion impacts traders choice in submitting different types of orders and thus to supply and demand liquidity either before or after such announcements. Since the types of orders submitted by traders at these times are the building blocks of the observed price and trading dynamics, it is important to understand how differences in investors' information sets before and after important macroeconomic announcements affect their order submission decisions. We find that (i) belief dispersion affects the size and aggressiveness of orders both before and after macroeconomic announcements, (ii) the magnitude of the impact of factors known to affect order choice depends on the level of belief dispersion, and (iii) the influence of information shocks (the revelation of unexpected information) on order choices depends on the level of belief dispersion.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/wp11-8.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 11-8.

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    Length: 41 pages
    Date of creation: 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-8
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    1. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2007. "Informed and Strategic Order Flow in the Bond Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(6), pages 1975-2019, November.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    3. Madhavan, Ananth, 2000. "Market microstructure: A survey," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 205-258, August.
    4. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hamao, Y. & Hasbrouck, J., 1992. "Securities Trading in the Absence of Dealers: Trade and Quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Papers 92-35, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    6. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, 02.
    7. Cavaglia Stefano & Verschoor Willem F. C. & Wolff Christian C. P., 1993. "Asian Exchange Rate Expectations," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 57-77, March.
    8. Geir H. BjĂžnnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2009. "Asymmetric information in the interbank foreign exchange market," Working Paper 2008/25, Norges Bank.
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