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The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity

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Cited by:

  1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
  2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2133 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Grant, Angelia L. & Chan, Joshua C.C., 2017. "Reconciling output gaps: Unobserved components model and Hodrick–Prescott filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 114-121.
  4. Günes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 550-566, July.
  5. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
  6. Kum Hwa Oh & Eric Zivot & Drew Creal, 2006. "The Relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition andUnobserved Component Models with Correlated Shocks," Working Papers UWEC-2006-16-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  7. Walter C. Labys & Dominique Badillo & Jean-Baptiste Lesourd, 1998. "Cycles à moyen terme des prix mondiaux des matières premières agricoles," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 16-21.
  8. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  9. Michele Caputo & Francesco Forte & Michela Mantovani, 2014. "Long-run and shorter-run criminal cycles in the public economics of public bads," Chapters, in: Francesco Forte & Ram Mudambi & Pietro Maria Navarra (ed.), A Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics, chapter 22, pages 503-542, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  10. Blasques, F. & van Brummelen, J. & Gorgi, P. & Koopman, S.J., 2024. "A robust Beveridge–Nelson decomposition using a score-driven approach with an application," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
  11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2133 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Spurious trend and cycle in the state space decomposition of a time series with a unit root," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 475-488.
  13. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
  14. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
  15. Bruce Fallick & Murat Tasci, 2020. "Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District," Working Papers 20-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  16. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
  17. Yoon & Jae Ho, 2004. "Has the G7 business cycle become more synchronized ?," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 782, Econometric Society.
  18. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
  20. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Nonlinear Permanent - Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 125-139, March.
  21. Marta Areosa, 2008. "Combining Hodrick-Prescott Filtering with a Production Function Approach to Estimate Output Gap," Working Papers Series 172, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  22. John H. Cochrane, 1990. "Univariate vs. Multivariate Forecasts of GNP Growth and Stock Returns: Evidence and Implications for the Persistence of Shocks, Detrending Methods," NBER Working Papers 3427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
  24. Xiaoyu Zhang & Fanghui Pan, 2019. "The Dependence of China’s Monetary Policy Rules on Interest Rate Regimes: Empirical Analysis Based on a Pseudo Output Gap," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
  25. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1996. "The Exact Error In Estimating The Spectral Density At The Origin," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 379-408, July.
  26. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
  27. Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "How Are Shocks to Trend and Cycle Correlated? A Simple Methodology for Unidentified Unobserved Components Models," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  28. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2002. "Unity and Plurality of the European Cycle," Working Papers hal-03458584, HAL.
  29. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "On the identification of multivariate correlated unobserved components models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 15-18.
  30. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
  31. Ray Fair, 2005. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2527, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2005.
  32. Robert Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2004. "Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 373-386, December.
  33. Yao, Fang, 2022. "Estimating the Trend of the House Price to Income Ratio in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
  34. Jun Ma & Charles R. Nelson, 2008. "Valid Inference for a Class of Models Where Standard Inference Performs Poorly: Including Nonlinear Regression, ARMA, GARCH, and Unobserved Components," Working Papers UWEC-2008-06-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
  35. Park, Cyn-Young & Majuca, Ruperto & Yap, Josef, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 45, Asian Development Bank.
  36. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2130 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of time series models: the Kalman filter and beyond," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 15, pages 334-362, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  38. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
  39. Murat Tasci, 2010. "The ins and outs of unemployment in the long run: a new estimate for the natural rate?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1017, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  40. Fiorentini, G. & Planas, C. & Rossi, A., 2012. "The marginal likelihood of dynamic mixture models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(9), pages 2650-2662.
  41. Tommaso Proietti, 2002. "Some Reflections on Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components," Econometrics 0209002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Jorge E. Galán & Javier Mencía, 2018. "Empirical assessment of alternative structural methods for identifying cyclical systemic risk in Europe," Working Papers 1825, Banco de España.
  43. Maral Kichian and Richard Luger, Bank of Canada, 2001. "On Inflation and the Persistence of shocks to Output," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 184, Society for Computational Economics.
  44. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
  45. David Kohns & Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2020. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," Papers 2011.00938, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
  46. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
  47. Byron Botha & Franz Ruch & Rudi Steinbach, 2018. "Shortlived supply shocks to potential growth," Working Papers 8605, South African Reserve Bank.
  48. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
  50. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  51. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
  52. Ng, Serena & Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Estimation and inference in nearly unbalanced nearly cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 53-81, July.
  53. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
  54. Patrick Artus, 1991. "Indicateurs de conjoncture et marchés financiers," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 99(3), pages 31-41.
  55. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
  56. Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy, 2011. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 871-897, August.
  57. Camilla Mastromarco & Léopold Simar & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2021. "Predicting recessions with a frontier measure of output gap: an application to Italian economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2701-2740, June.
  58. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," Working Papers 789, DNB.
  59. Fokin, Nikita, 2021. "The importance of modeling structural breaks in forecasting Russian GDP," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 5-29.
  60. Pakko Michael R., 2005. "Changing Technology Trends, Transition Dynamics, and Growth Accounting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-42, December.
  61. Spencer D. Krane, 2006. "How professional forecasters view shocks to GDP," Working Paper Series WP-06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  62. Castillo, Luis & Florián, David, 2019. "Measuring the output gap, potential output growth and natural interest rate from a semi-structural dynamic model for Peru," Working Papers 2019-012, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  63. Gonzalo, Jesus & Martinez, Oscar, 2006. "Large shocks vs. small shocks. (Or does size matter? May be so.)," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 311-347.
  64. Escobari, Diego & Sharma, Shahil, 2020. "Explaining the nonlinear response of stock markets to oil price shocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
  65. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2014. "Dynamics of Consumption and Dividends over the Business Cycle," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp522, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  66. Mastromarco, Camilla & Simar, Leopold & Wilson, Paul, 2019. "Predicting Recessions: A New Measure of Output Gap as Predictor," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2019023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  67. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2006. "A comparison of alternative asymptotic frameworks to analyse a structural change in a linear time trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 423-447, November.
  68. Sengul, Gonul & Tasci, Murat, 2020. "Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  69. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "On the Interpretation of Near Random-walk Behavior in GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 202-209, March.
  70. Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Determining what drives stock returns: Proper inference is crucial: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 371-390.
  71. Öğünç, Fethi & Akdoğan, Kurmaş & Başer, Selen & Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Ertuğ, Dilara & Hülagü, Timur & Kösem, Sevim & Özmen, Mustafa Utku & Tekatlı, Necati, 2013. "Short-term inflation forecasting models for Turkey and a forecast combination analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 312-325.
  72. Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  73. Fabrizio Casalin, 2007. "Single Equation Models, Co-Integration and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 110, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
  74. Shively, Philip A., 2004. "The size and dynamic effect of aggregate-demand and aggregate-supply disturbances in expansionary and contractionary regimes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 83-99, March.
  75. Michael Fung, 2013. "A trade-off between non-fundamental risk and incentives," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 29-51, July.
  76. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
  77. Crafts, N. F. R. & Leybourne, S. J. & Mills, T. C., 1988. "Economic Growth In Nineteeth Century Britain: Comparisons With Europe In The Context Of Gerschenkron'S Hypotheses," Economic Research Papers 268342, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  78. Omar H. M. N. Bashar, 2015. "The Trickle‐down Effect of the Mining Boom in Australia: Fact or Myth?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 94-108, June.
  79. Rolando Peláez, 2012. "The housing bubble in real-time: the end of innocence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 211-225, January.
  80. Humala, Alberto & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru," Working Papers 2009-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  81. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1997. "Asymmetric business cycles: Theory and time-series evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 501-533, December.
  82. Blasques, Francisco & van Brummelen, Janneke & Gorgi, Paolo & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2024. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Non-Stationary Location Models with Mixture of Normal Distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(1).
  83. Guilhem Bentoglio & Jacky Fayolle & Matthieu Lemoine, 2001. "Unité et pluralité du cycle européen," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 78(3), pages 9-73.
  84. Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Staff Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada.
  85. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
  86. Brian Micallef, 2016. "A Multivariate Filter to Estimate Potential Output and NAIRU for the Maltese Economy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(5), pages 13-22, May.
  87. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
  88. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
  89. Mardi Dungey & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jing Tian, 2017. "Forecasting output gaps in the G-7 countries: the role of correlated innovations and structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(45), pages 4554-4566, September.
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  91. Berger, Tino & Kempa, Bernd, 2014. "Time-varying equilibrium rates in small open economies: Evidence for Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 203-214.
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  95. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2018. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 18-40.
  96. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2016. "Real-Time Properties of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 785-791, October.
  97. Luigi Ermini, 1993. "Shock Persistence and Stochastic Trends in Australian Aggregate Output and Consumption," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(1), pages 34-43, March.
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  101. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
  102. Morana, Claudio, 2024. "A new macro-financial condition index for the euro area," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 64-87.
  103. Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Adedoyin, Festus Fatai, 2021. "Regime switching effect of COVID-19 pandemic on renewable electricity generation in Denmark," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 797-806.
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