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To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question

Author

Listed:
  • Ye Lu
  • Adrian Pagan

Abstract

Phillips and Shi (2021) have argued that there may be some leakage from the estimate of the permanent component to what is meant to be the transitory component when one uses the Hodrick-Prescott filter. They argue that this can be eliminated by boosting the filter. We show that there is no leakage from the filter per se, so boosting is not needed for that. They also argue that there are DGP’s for the components for which the boosted filter tracks these more accurately. We show that there are other plausible DGP’s where the boosted filter tracks less accurately, and what is crucial to tracking performance is how important permanent shocks are to growth in the series being filtered. In particular, the DGP’s used in Phillips and Shi (2021) have a very high contribution from permanent shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye Lu & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "To Boost or Not to Boost? That is the Question," CAMA Working Papers 2023-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-12
    as

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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2023-02/12_2023_lu_pagan_0.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Fukač & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Limited information estimation and evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 55-70, January.
    2. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2021. "Boosting: Why You Can Use The Hp Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 521-570, May.
    5. Sakarya, Neslihan & de Jong, Robert M., 2020. "A Property Of The Hodrick–Prescott Filter And Its Application," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(5), pages 840-870, October.
    6. George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2020. "Business-Cycle Anatomy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3030-3070, October.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Sainan Jin, 2021. "Business Cycles, Trend Elimination, And The Hp Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 469-520, May.
    8. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2016. "The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10744.
    9. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    10. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    11. Ulrich K. Müller & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Testing Models of Low-Frequency Variability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(5), pages 979-1016, September.
    12. Viv B. Hall & Peter Thomson, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis:evidence from New Zealand's small open economy," CAMA Working Papers 2022-45, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Max Gillman & Adrian Pagan, 2023. "Investigating Cycle Anatomy," CAMA Working Papers 2023-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Ziwei Mei & Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2022. "The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think," Papers 2209.09810, arXiv.org.
    15. Daniel Buncic & Adrian Pagan, 2022. "Discovering Stars: Problems in Recovering Latent Variables from Models," CAMA Working Papers 2022-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Robert M. de Jong & Neslihan Sakarya, 2016. "The Econometrics of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 310-317, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Boosting; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Component models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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