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Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District

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Listed:
  • Bruce Fallick
  • Murat Tasci

Abstract

We estimate trend unemployment rates for Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia, states that span parts of the Fourth District of the Federal Reserve System. Our estimated unemployment rate trend for the District as a whole stood at 5.7 percent in 2020:Q1 compared to a 4.7 percent observed unemployment rate within the District, implying a tight labor market by historical standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Fallick & Murat Tasci, 2020. "Estimating the Trend Unemployment Rate in the Fourth Federal Reserve District," Working Papers 20-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:88278
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    2. Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
    3. Murat Tasci, 2012. "The ins and outs of unemployment in the long run: unemployment flows and the natural rate," Working Papers (Old Series) 1224, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment rates; trend; Federal Reserve district;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

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