IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28445.html

Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Ayşegül Şahin
  • Murat Tasci
  • Jin Yan

Abstract

This paper presents a flow-based methodology for real-time unemployment rate projections and shows that this approach performed considerably better at the onset of the COVID-19 recession in the spring 2020 in predicting the peak unemployment rate as well as its rapid decline over the year. It presents an alternative scenario analysis for 2021 based on this methodology and argues that the unemployment rate is likely to decline to 5.4 percent by the end of 2021. The predictive power of the methodology comes from its combined use of real-time data with the flow approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayşegül Şahin & Murat Tasci & Jin Yan, 2021. "Unemployment in the Time of COVID-19: A Flow-Based Approach to Real-time Unemployment Projections," NBER Working Papers 28445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28445
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28445.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    2. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    3. Murat Tasci, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Long Run: Unemployment Flows and the Natural Rate," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1233, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    4. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    5. Regis Barnichon & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 83-131.
    6. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    7. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, May.
    8. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    9. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2013. "Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 530-548, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Employment and Work

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Faberman, R. Jason & Mueller, Andreas I. & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2022. "Has the Willingness to Work Fallen during the Covid Pandemic?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Zhang, Li & Hu, Shiwei & Xu, Guoli, 2023. "Pandemic uncertainty and firm investments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    4. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2021. "Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle," NBER Working Papers 29222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kandoussi, Malak & Langot, François, 2025. "Modeling and evaluating the heterogeneous impacts of the COVID-19 on US unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    2. Sengul, Gonul & Tasci, Murat, 2020. "Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Gonul Sengul & Murat Tasci, 2014. "Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey," Working Papers 1435, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    5. Hie Joo Ahn & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered," NBER Working Papers 31241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Razzu, Giovanni & Singleton, Carl, 2016. "Gender and the business cycle: An analysis of labour markets in the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 131-146.
    7. Jósef Sigurdsson, 2011. "Unemployment Dynamics and Cyclical Fluctuations in the Icelandic Labour Market," Economics wp56, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    8. Nordmeier, Daniela, 2014. "Worker flows in Germany: Inspecting the time aggregation bias," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 70-83.
    9. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara & Anica Kramer & Sylvi Rzepka, 2015. "Labour market dynamics and worker heterogeneity during the Great Recession – Evidence from Europe," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-29, December.
    10. D’Amuri, Francesco & De Philippis, Marta & Guglielminetti, Elisa & Lo Bello, Salvatore, 2022. "Slack and prices during Covid-19: Accounting for labor market participation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Barnichon, Regis, 2012. "Vacancy posting, job separation and unemployment fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 315-330.
    12. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy Bechara & Anica Kramer & Sylvi Rzepka, 2014. "Labour Market Dynamics and Worker Heterogeneity During the Great Recession – Evidence from Europe," Ruhr Economic Papers 0499, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Andreas Hornstein, 2012. "Accounting for unemployment: the long and short of it," Working Paper 12-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    14. Shibata, Ippei, 2022. "Reassessing classification errors in the analysis of labor market dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2025. "Macroeconomic facts in the Japanese labor market: survey," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(3), pages 621-666, July.
    16. Nordmeier, Daniela, 2012. "Worker flows in Germany: Inspecting the time aggregation bias," IAB-Discussion Paper 201212, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. Nikita Céspedes Reynaga & Nelson R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2021. "Job Finding and Separation Rates in an Economy with High Labor Informality," Research in Labor Economics, in: Workplace Productivity and Management Practices, volume 49, pages 277-302, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Brent Meyer & Murat Tasci, 2015. "Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States: use flow rates, mind the trend," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    19. Holmberg, Johan, 2021. "Earnings and Employment Dynamics: Capturing Cyclicality using Mixed Frequency Data," Umeå Economic Studies 991, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    20. Carsten Ochsen, 2024. "Regional decomposition in age-group unemployment dynamics in Germany," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1443-1476, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.