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Fan Charts as Useful ‘Maps’ for an Inflation-Targeting Central Bank: An Illustration of the Sveriges Riksbank’s Method for Presenting Density Forecasts of Inflation

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  • Virmani, Vineet

Abstract

In this study I illustrate the usefulness of Fan Charts for a central bank and show how they can be used to present its viewpoint on likely paths of future inflation. Exploiting a bivariate unobserved components model, I use the methodology followed by Blix and Sellin (1998) to demonstrate how subjective judgements can be systematically incorporated into model-based forecasts and effectively presented in a graphic manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Virmani, Vineet, 2004. "Fan Charts as Useful ‘Maps’ for an Inflation-Targeting Central Bank: An Illustration of the Sveriges Riksbank’s Method for Presenting Density Forecasts of Inflation," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-04-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:wp01809
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-368, July.
    2. Peter K. Clark, 1987. "The Cyclical Component of U. S. Economic Activity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 797-814.
    3. Domenech, Rafael & Gomez, Victor, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU as Latent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 354-365, July.
    4. Blix, Mårten & Sellin, Peter, 2000. "A Bivariate Distribution for Inflation and Output Forecasts," Working Paper Series 102, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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