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Fan Charts as Useful ‘Maps’ for an Inflation-Targeting Central Bank: An Illustration of the Sveriges Riksbank’s Method for Presenting Density Forecasts of Inflation

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  • Virmani, Vineet

Abstract

In this study I illustrate the usefulness of Fan Charts for a central bank and show how they can be used to present its viewpoint on likely paths of future inflation. Exploiting a bivariate unobserved components model, I use the methodology followed by Blix and Sellin (1998) to demonstrate how subjective judgements can be systematically incorporated into model-based forecasts and effectively presented in a graphic manner.

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  • Virmani, Vineet, 2004. "Fan Charts as Useful ‘Maps’ for an Inflation-Targeting Central Bank: An Illustration of the Sveriges Riksbank’s Method for Presenting Density Forecasts of Inflation," IIMA Working Papers WP2004-04-03, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:wp01809
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    1. Domenech, Rafael & Gomez, Victor, 2006. "Estimating Potential Output, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU as Latent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 354-365, July.
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