Investigating the Cyclical Properties of World Trade
The world economy in the last two decades is clearly marked by the integration of emerging countries in the international division of labor. To better understand the â€œglobalizationâ€ effect, it is helpful to analyze the pattern and structure of world trade volume in the past, in order to draw conclusions for future development. An unobserved components model is used for decomposing world trade volume into trend, cycle, seasonal and irregular components. The analyses show that the process of the world trade volume is driven by the well-known fluctuations in form of the â€œKitchinâ€ and â€œJuglar Cycleâ€ . Furthermore, there is one more cycle with a period between 4 and 5 years which improves the estimation results significantly. The information of the cyclical behavior of the time series is used for projections.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München|
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Gebhard Flaig, 2002. "Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 681, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gebhard Flaig*, 2005.
"Time Series Properties of the German Production Index,"
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis,
Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(4), pages 419-434, November.
- Flaig, Gebhard, 2005. "Time series properties of the German production index," Munich Reprints in Economics 20377, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 607, CESifo Group Munich.
- Langmantel Erich, 2005. "Identifying the German Inventory Cycle: A Multivariate Structural Time Series Approach Using Survey Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 675-687, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.