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Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP

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  • Gebhard Flaig

Abstract

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at the end of the nineties of the last century. 2) The business cycle is comprised of two subcycles with a period of about four and eight years, respectively. 3) The seasonal pattern is not constant over time and the number of working days contribute significantly to the short-term variability of output.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebhard Flaig, 2002. "Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 681, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_681
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
    2. Gebhard Flaig, 2000. "Arbeitstageeffekt und Bruttoinlandsprodukt : eine empirische Analyse mit einem strukturellen Komponentenmodel," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(22-23), pages 12-17, August.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
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    5. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    6. Maral Kichian, 1999. "Measuring Potential Output within a State-Space Framework," Staff Working Papers 99-9, Bank of Canada.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    9. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España.
    10. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-247, July-Sept.
    11. Gebhard Flaig, 2000. "Arbeitstageeffekt und Bruttoinlandsprodukt : eine empirische Analyse mit einem strukturellen Komponentenmodel," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(22), pages 12-17, August.
    12. Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 607, CESifo.
    13. Gebhard Flaig & Claudia Plötscher, 2000. "Estimating the Output Gap Using Business Survey Data - A Bivariate Structural Time Series Model for the German Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 233, CESifo.
    14. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
    15. Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
    16. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Monika Ruschinski, 2006. "Investigating the Cyclical Properties of World Trade," ifo Working Paper Series 30, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Flaig Gebhard, 2003. "Seasonal and Cyclical Properties of Ifo Business Test Variables / Saisonale und zyklische Eigenschaften von ifo Konjunkturtest Variablen," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 223(5), pages 556-570, October.
    3. Monika Ruschinski, 2008. "Die deutsche Dienstleistungs- und Warenausfuhr im Rückblick: Gibt es markante Unterschiede im Wachstum?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(05), pages 23-29, January.
    4. Langmantel Erich, 2005. "Identifying the German Inventory Cycle: A Multivariate Structural Time Series Approach Using Survey Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 675-687, December.
    5. Gebhard Flaig, 2003. "Time Series Properties of the German Monthly Production Index," CESifo Working Paper Series 833, CESifo.
    6. Patrick Wilson & Simon Stevenson & Ralf Zurbruegg, 2007. "Foreign Property Shocks and the Impact on Domestic Securitized Real Estate Markets: An Unobserved Components Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 407-424, April.

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