Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP
In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at the end of the nineties of the last century. 2) The business cycle is comprised of two subcycles with a period of about four and eight years, respectively. 3) The seasonal pattern is not constant over time and the number of working days contribute significantly to the short-term variability of output.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1999.
"A theory-consistent system approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU,"
Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 271-275, September.
- Apel, Mikael & Jansson, Per, 1998. "A Theory-Consistent System Approach for Estimating Potential Output and the NAIRU," Working Paper Series 74, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
- Canova, Fabio, 1993.
"Detrending and Business Cycle Facts,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Gebhard Flaig, 2000. "Arbeitstageeffekt und Bruttoinlandsprodukt : eine empirische Analyse mit einem strukturellen Komponentenmodel," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(22-23), pages 12-17, 08.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 607, CESifo Group Munich.
- Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
- Luca Benati, 2001. "Band-pass filtering, cointegration, and business cycle analysis," Bank of England working papers 142, Bank of England.
- Gebhard Flaig & Claudia Ploetscher, 2000. "Estimating the Output Gap Using Business Survey Data - A Bivariate Structural Time Series Model for the German Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 233, CESifo Group Munich.
- Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series: implications for business cycle research,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
- Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_681. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.