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Die deutsche Dienstleistungs- und Warenausfuhr im Rückblick: Gibt es markante Unterschiede im Wachstum?

  • Monika Ruschinski
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    In den letzten Jahren erwiesen sich die deutschen Exporte als der Konjunkturmotor der deutschen Wirtschaft, und Deutschland wurde als Exportweltmeister noch vor den USA gefeiert. Tatsächlich gilt der Titel jedoch nur für die Warenausfuhr. Berücksichtigt man auch Dienstleistungsexporte, so haben weiterhin die Vereinigten Staaten die Nase vorn. In diesem Beitrag werden daher Datenreihen für die deutsche Warenausfuhr und für die deutsche Dienstleistungsausfuhr getrennt über einen langen Zeitraum hin untersucht, um die strukturellen Eigenschaften der Zeitreihen deutlich machen zu können. Die Untersuchung zeigt, dass die Waren- und Dienstleistungsausfuhr verschiedene zyklische Verhaltensmuster aufweisen, und auch bei den saisonalen Effekten gibt es deutliche Unterschiede. Zudem macht die Trendanalyse deutlich, dass die Warenausfuhr und der Dienstleistungsverkehr zum Teil recht unterschiedlichen Wachstumspfaden folgen.

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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Schnelldienst/zs-sd-2008/ifosd_2008_2_5.pdf
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    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 61 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 05 (01)
    Pages: 23-29

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:61:y:2008:i:05:p:23-29
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    1. Erich Langmantel, 2005. "Identifying the German Inventory Cycle, A Multivariate Structural Time Series Approach Using Survey Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 225(6), pages 675-687, November.
    2. Gebhard Flaig, 2002. "Unoberserved Components Models for Quarterly German GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 681, CESifo Group Munich.
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