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Arbeitstageeffekt und Bruttoinlandsprodukt : eine empirische Analyse mit einem strukturellen Komponentenmodel

Listed author(s):
  • Gebhard Flaig

Das starke Wachstum des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts im ersten Quartal 2000, aber auch die kürzlich veröffentlichte Konjunkturprognose des ifo Instituts haben wieder gezeigt, wie groß der Einfluss einer unterschiedlichen Zahl von Arbeitstagen auf das Wirtschaftswachstum sein kann. In dem Beitrag wird das Problem anhand eines strukturellen Zeitreihenmodells analysiert. Dabei wird nicht nur die Arbeitstagekomponente geschätzt, simultan erhält man auch Schätzungen für das Produktionspotential und den Output gap. Als »Nebenprodukt« liefert der Ansatz eine Prognosefunktion sowohl für die beobachtete Zeitreihe selbst als auch für die zugrunde liegenden Komponenten.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 53 (2000)
Issue (Month): 22-23 (August)
Pages: 12-17

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:53:y:2000:i:22-23:p:12-17
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