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Citations for "Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks"

by M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann

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  1. BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, . "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 2403, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  2. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
  3. Belmonte, Miguel A & Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-68, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  4. Atanu Ghoshray, 2013. "Dynamic Persistence of Primary Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(1), pages 153-164.
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2006. "Learning, structural instability and present value calculations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 529, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  8. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "How useful are historical data for forecasting the long-run equity return distribution?," Working Papers tecipa-293, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  9. Zhongfang He & John M Maheu, 2008. "Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models," Working Papers tecipa-336, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  10. Barnett, Alina & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2012. "Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters," Bank of England working papers 450, Bank of England.
  11. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2007. "Assessing Forecast Uncertainties in a VECX Model for Switzerland: An Exercise in Forecast Combination across Models and Observation Windows," IZA Discussion Papers 3071, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Switch to Near-Rational Wage-Price Setting Behaviour: The Case of United Kingdom," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 1(35), pages 127-148, may.
  13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective," IEPR Working Papers 06.43, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  14. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
  15. Eklund, Jana & Kapetanios, George & Price, Simon, 2010. "Forecasting in the presence of recent structural change," Bank of England working papers 406, Bank of England.
  16. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert, 2006. "Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multiple Change-Point and Mixture Innovation Models," Working Paper Series 196, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  17. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
  18. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "Bayesian Forecasting using Stochastic Search Variable Selection in a VAR Subject to Breaks," Working Paper Series 19_08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  19. White, Halbert & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2014. "Granger causality, exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 316-330.
  20. Shu-Ping Shi & Yong Song, 2012. "Identifying Speculative Bubbles with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper Series 26_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  21. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Working Paper Research 119, National Bank of Belgium.
  23. Eran Raviv & Kees E. Bouwman & Dick van Dijk, 2013. "Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices: Utilizing Hourly Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-068/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  24. John M Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2007. "Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks," Working Papers tecipa-284, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  25. Kirsten Thompson & Reneé van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Testing the Out-of-Sample Forecasting Ability of a Financial Conditions Index for South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 486-501, May.
  26. Robert J. Barro & Tao Jin, 2016. "Rare Events and Long-Run Risks," NBER Working Papers 21871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Raffella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 845, UCLA Department of Economics.
  28. Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Levy, Haim, 2008. "Nonlinear mean reversion in stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 767-782, May.
  29. Choi, Kyongwook & Yu, Wei-Choun & Zivot, Eric, 2010. "Long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 857-875, September.
  30. Nonejad, Nima, 2014. "Particle Gibbs with Ancestor Sampling Methods for Unobserved Component Time Series Models with Heavy Tails, Serial Dependence and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 55664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  31. David Hendry, 2011. "Unpredictability in Economic Analyis, Econometric Modelling and Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 551, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  32. Maheu, John M. & Yang, Qiao, 2016. "An infinite hidden Markov model for short-term interest rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 202-220.
  33. Dimitris, Korobilis, 2013. "Forecasting with Factor Models: A Bayesian Model Averaging Perspective," MPRA Paper 52724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Simeon Coleman & Kavita Sirichand, 2014. "Investigating Multiple Changes in Persistence in International Yields," Discussion Paper Series 2014_04, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jul 2014.
  35. Davide De Gaetano, 2016. "Forecast Combinations For Realized Volatility In Presence Of Structural Breaks," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0208, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  36. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2009. "Prior Elicitation In Multiple Change-Point Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 751-772, 08.
  37. Simeon Coleman Author name: Vitor Leone, 2012. "Time-series characteristics of UK commercial property returns: Testing for multiple changes in persistence," Working Papers 2012/03, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  38. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Axioglou, Christos & Skouras, Spyros, 2011. "Markets change every day: Evidence from the memory of trade direction," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 423-446, June.
  40. Ying Chen & Linlin Niu, 2013. "Adaptive Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model with Applications," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  41. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2014. "The relationship between spot and futures oil prices: Do structural breaks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 206-217.
  42. Adriatik Hoxha, 2016. "The Wage-Price Setting Behavior: Comparing The Evidence from EU28 and EMU," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 61-102, June.
  43. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  44. repec:rim:rimwps:17-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Eo, Yunjong & Kim, Chang-Jin, 2012. "Markov-Switching Models with Evolving Regime-Specific Parameters: Are Post-War Booms or Recessions All Alike?," Working Papers 2012-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  46. Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A. & Pranovich, M., 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks (Updated 14 November 2011)," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1163, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  47. Kul B Luintel & Khan Mosahid & Leon-Gonzalez Roberto & Li Guangjie, 2016. "Financial Development, Structure and Growth : New Data, Method and Results," GRIPS Discussion Papers 15-27, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  48. Lee, Yoonsuk & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2012. "Impacts of Permanent and Transitory Shocks on Optimal Length of Moving Average to Predict Wheat Basis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 125001, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  49. Bianchi, Francesco, 2008. "Rare Events, Financial Crises, and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 20831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2010.
  50. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  51. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  52. David Ardia, 2009. "Bayesian estimation of a Markov-switching threshold asymmetric GARCH model with Student-t innovations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 105-126, 03.
  53. Markku Lanne, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Macroeconomics 0405014, EconWPA.
  54. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  55. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  56. Bates, Brandon J. & Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2013. "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 289-304.
  57. Geweke, John & Jiang, Yu, 2011. "Inference and prediction in a multiple-structural-break model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 172-185, August.
  58. Yong Song, 2012. "Modelling Regime Switching and Structural Breaks with an Infinite Hidden Markov Model," Working Paper Series 28_12, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  59. Nima Nonejad, 2013. "A Mixture Innovation Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model for Structural Breaks and Long Memory," CREATES Research Papers 2013-24, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  60. Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
  61. repec:luc:wpaper:14-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Caterina Forti Grazzini & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Forecasting yield spreads under crisis-induced multiple breakpoints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1656-1664, December.
  63. Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. González, Andrés & Hubrich, Kirstin & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," Working Paper Series 1363, European Central Bank.
  65. Geweke, John F. & Horowitz, Joel L. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird's Eye View," IZA Discussion Papers 2458, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  66. Markwat, T.D. & Kole, H.J.W.G. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2009. "Time Variation in Asset Return Dependence: Strength or Structure?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-052-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  67. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2013. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-44, January.
  68. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
  69. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and estimating multiple change-point models with an unknown number of change points," Staff Reports 196, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  70. Franz Ruch & Mehmet Balcilar & Mampho P. Modise & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting Core Inflation: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 201543, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  71. Blake LeBaron, 2013. "Heterogeneous Agents and Long Horizon Features of Asset Prices," Working Papers 63, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Sep 2013.
  72. Georges Dionne & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2013. "Default and Liquidity Regimes in the Bond Market during the 2002-2012 Period," Cahiers de recherche 1322, CIRPEE.
  73. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
  74. Kapetanios, G. & Tzavalis, E., 2010. "Modeling structural breaks in economic relationships using large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 417-436, March.
  75. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Li, Guangjie, 2016. "Financial development, structure and growth: New data, method and results," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 95-112.
  76. Czinkota, Thomas, 2012. "Das Halteproblem bei Strukturbrüchen in Finanzmarktzeitreihen
    [The Halting Problem applied to Structural Breaks in Financial Time Series]
    ," MPRA Paper 37072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  77. Ravazzolo, F. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  78. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Vogt, Erik, 2015. "Nonlinearity and flight to safety in the risk-return trade-off for stocks and bonds," Staff Reports 723, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 May 2016.
  79. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
  80. Jiang, Yu & Song, Zhe & Kusiak, Andrew, 2013. "Very short-term wind speed forecasting with Bayesian structural break model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 637-647.
  81. Sjoerd van den Hauwe & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "An Alternative Bayesian Approach to Structural Breaks in Time Series Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-023/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  82. Maheu, John M. & Song, Yong, 2014. "A new structural break model, with an application to Canadian inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 144-160.
  83. Kim, Jaeho, 2015. "Bayesian Inference in a Non-linear/Non-Gaussian Switching State Space Model: Regime-dependent Leverage Effect in the U.S. Stock Market," MPRA Paper 67153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Elusive return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18.
  85. Maheu, John & Song, Yong, 2012. "A new structural break model with application to Canadian inflation forecasting," MPRA Paper 36870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
  87. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett, 2008. "Forecasting with Equilibrium-correction Models during Structural Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 408, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  88. Bianchi, Francesco, 2016. "Methods for measuring expectations and uncertainty in Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(1), pages 79-99.
  89. repec:rim:rimwps:19-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  90. Edward N. Gamber & Jeffrey P. Liebner & Julie K. Smith, 2016. "Inflation persistence: revisited," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 25-44.
  91. Menelaos Karanasos & Alexandros Paraskevopoulos & Faek Menla Ali & Michail Karoglou & Stavroula Yfanti, 2014. "Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach," Papers 1403.7179, arXiv.org.
  92. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2016. "Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-143.
  93. Ko, Stanley I. M. & Chong, Terence T. L. & Ghosh, Pulak, 2014. "Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Multiple Change-point Model," MPRA Paper 57871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  94. Qu, Zhongjun, 2008. "Testing for structural change in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 170-184, September.
  95. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G, 2016. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables under Model Instability," CEPR Discussion Papers 11355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  96. Sylvia Kaufmann, 2011. "K-state switching models with endogenous transition distributions," Working Papers 2011-13, Swiss National Bank.
  97. repec:rim:rimwps:24-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  98. BAUWENS, Luc & DUFAYS, Arnaud & DE BACKER, Bruno, 2011. "Estimating and forecasting structural breaks in financial time series," CORE Discussion Papers 2011055, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  99. Aue, Alexander & Horváth, Lajos & Reimherr, Matthew L., 2009. "Delay times of sequential procedures for multiple time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 174-190, April.
  100. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2008. "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Random Level Shifts: Theory and Applications to S&P 500 and NASDAQ Return Indices," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-007, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  101. Adam Canopius, 2006. "Practitioners' Corner," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(2), pages 346-351.
  102. Terence C. Mills, 2013. "Trends, cycles and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 3, pages 45-60 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  103. Bulkley, George & Giordani, Paolo, 2011. "Structural breaks, parameter uncertainty, and term structure puzzles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 222-232, October.
  104. David Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2013. "Unpredictability in Economic Analysis, Econometric Modeling and Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 2013-W04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  105. Sancetta, A. & Nikanrova, A., 2005. "Forecasting and Prequential Validation for Time Varying Meta-Elliptical Distributions with a Study of Commodity Futures Prices," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0516, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  106. Jiawen Xu & Pierre Perron, 2015. "Forecasting in the presence of in and out of sample breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-012, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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