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Evaluating value at risk using selection criteria of the model and the information set


  • Pilar Gargallo
  • Jesus Miguel
  • Pilar Olave
  • Manuel Salvador


This article proposes a new methodology to estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) in a time varying heteroscedastic dynamic regression context. The methodology assumes that the form of the model and its information set may also change over time and takes into account the uncertainty associated with the joint selection of model and information set, providing more reliability to the elaborated forecasts. A Bayesian framework is adopted and a cross validation selection criterion, asymptotically equivalent to the Bayes factor, is proposed. Finally, we estimate the VaR on line of five international equity indexes. Our VaR estimations tend to follow the evolution of the series more closely than classical procedures by keeping the coverage properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilar Gargallo & Jesus Miguel & Pilar Olave & Manuel Salvador, 2010. "Evaluating value at risk using selection criteria of the model and the information set," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1415-1428.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:18:p:1415-1428 DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.498346

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Newton Da Costa & Carlos Mineto & Sergio Da Silva, 2008. "Disposition effect and gender," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 411-416.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    3. Sergio Da Silva & Guilherme Moura, 2005. "Is There a Brazilian J-Curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(10), pages 1-17.
    4. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(1), pages 19-50, January.
    5. Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2003. "The random walk hypothesis and the behaviour of foreign capital portfolio flows: the Brazilian stock market case," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 369-378.
    6. Liam Gallagher, 2000. "Macroeconomic shocks under alternative exchange rate regimes: the Irish experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 933-944.
    7. Juncal Cunado Eizaguirre & Javier Gomez Biscarri & Fernando Perez de Gracia Hidalgo, 2009. "Financial liberalization, stock market volatility and outliers in emerging economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(10), pages 809-823.
    8. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2005:i:10:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, April.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramón Barberán & Pilar Egea & Manuel Salvador & Pilar Gracia de Rentería, 2012. "Análisis Coste-Beneficio de la introducción de dispositivos ahorradores de agua. Estudio de un caso en el sector hotelero," Documentos de Trabajo dt2012-04, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.

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