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Evaluating value at risk using selection criteria of the model and the information set

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  • Pilar Gargallo
  • Jesus Miguel
  • Pilar Olave
  • Manuel Salvador

Abstract

This article proposes a new methodology to estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) in a time varying heteroscedastic dynamic regression context. The methodology assumes that the form of the model and its information set may also change over time and takes into account the uncertainty associated with the joint selection of model and information set, providing more reliability to the elaborated forecasts. A Bayesian framework is adopted and a cross validation selection criterion, asymptotically equivalent to the Bayes factor, is proposed. Finally, we estimate the VaR on line of five international equity indexes. Our VaR estimations tend to follow the evolution of the series more closely than classical procedures by keeping the coverage properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Pilar Gargallo & Jesus Miguel & Pilar Olave & Manuel Salvador, 2010. "Evaluating value at risk using selection criteria of the model and the information set," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1415-1428.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:18:p:1415-1428
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.498346
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramón Barberán & Pilar Egea & Manuel Salvador & Pilar Gracia de Rentería, 2012. "Análisis Coste-Beneficio de la introducción de dispositivos ahorradores de agua. Estudio de un caso en el sector hotelero," Documentos de Trabajo dt2012-04, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.

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