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Citations for "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series"

by Harvey, A C

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  1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:3:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Konstantinos Drakos & Cathérine Müller, 2010. "On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 36, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Jaeho, 2013. "The `Pile-up Problem' in Trend-Cycle Decomposition of Real GDP: Classical and Bayesian Perspectives," MPRA Paper 51118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Charles Engel & James Morley, 2000. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0009, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  5. Arabinda Basistha, 2006. "Hours per Capita and Productivity: Evidence from Correlated Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 06-02 Classification- JEL, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  6. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Ecart de production dans la zone euro : une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2128, Sciences Po.
  7. Joshua C C Chan, 2012. "Moving Average Stochastic Volatility Models with Application to Inflation Forecast," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2012-591, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  8. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
  9. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2008. "Real time estimation of potential output and output gap for the euro-area: comparing production function with unobserved components and SVAR approaches," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2008-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  10. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
  11. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-29, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & João Victor Issler & Afonso Arinos de Mello Franco-Neto, 2012. "On the Welfare Costs of Business-Cycle Fluctuations and Economic-Growth Variation in the 20th Century," Working Papers Series 284, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
  14. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2001. "El desempleo en Colombia," COYUNTURA SOCIAL 012955, FEDESARROLLO.
  15. Alexander Dokumentov & Rob J. Hyndman, 2015. "STR: A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  16. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 274, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. McKelvie, S. & Hall, Viv B., 2012. "Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective," Working Paper Series 2364, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  18. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
  19. Nelson, Charles R., 2008. "The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition in retrospect and prospect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 202-206, October.
  20. Pritha Mitra & Amr Hosny & Gohar Abajyan & Mark Fischer, 2015. "Estimating Potential Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 15/62, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Joanne S. Ercolani, 2007. "Cyclical Trends in Continuous Time Models," Discussion Papers 07-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  22. Maria Silgoner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2004. "The fiscal smile - on the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  23. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2330, CESifo Group Munich.
  24. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  25. Jacky Fayolle & Alexandre Mathis, 1993. "Tendances et cycles stylisés dans les pays du G7 - Une approche stochastique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(1), pages 201-233.
  26. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
  27. Yoshinori Kawasaki, 1996. "A Model Selection Approach to detect Seasonal Unit Roots," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 96-180/7, Tinbergen Institute.
  28. Michael Kiley, 2010. "Output gaps," 2010 Meeting Papers 266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  29. Bilgili, Faik & Tülüce, Nadide Sevil Halıcı & Doğan, İbrahim, 2012. "The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov Regime-Switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1161-1169.
  30. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. David Kiefer, 2008. "New Keynesian Endogenous Stabilization in a Panel of Countries," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2008_19, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  32. repec:afc:cliome:v:5:y:2011:i:3:p:205-238 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Victor Zarnowitz, 1987. "The Regularity of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Samuel Bates & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, 2014. "Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal," Post-Print hal-01291329, HAL.
  35. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1993. "Unit roots, random walks and the sources of business cycles: a survey," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 47(3), July.
  36. Tawadros, George B., 2011. "The stylised facts of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 549-556.
  37. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Economics Series 155, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  38. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Challenges for monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-349, December.
  39. Dufourt, Frederic, 2005. "Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1089-1105, September.
  40. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2012. "Real-time properties of the Federal Reserve's output gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-86, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  41. David Kiefer, 2010. "A 2-Equation Model of the North Atlantic Economies, a Dynamic Panel Study," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2010_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  42. Oh, Kum Hwa & Zivot, Eric & Creal, Drew, 2008. "The relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions that are popular in economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 207-219, October.
  43. Olivier Basdevant & Nils Björksten & Özer Karagedikli, 2004. "Estimating a time varying neutral real interest rate for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  44. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Using A Forward-Looking Phillips Curve to Estimate the Output Gap in Peru," Working Papers 2009-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  45. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2005 is not listed on IDEAS
  46. Ma, Jun & Nelson, Charles R., 2010. "Valid Inference for a Class of Models Where Standard Inference Performs Poorly: Including Nonlinear Regression, ARMA, GARCH, and Unobserved Components," Economics Series 256, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  47. Scott, A. & Acemoglu, D., 1995. "Asymmetric Business Cycles: Theory and Time-series Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 99173, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  48. Arabinda Basistha, 2005. "Trend-Cycle Correlation, Drift Break and the Estimation of Trend and Cycle in Canadian GDP," Working Papers 05-07 Classification- JEL, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  49. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "Asymptotically Median Unbiased Estimation of Coefficient Variance in a Time Varying Parameter Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0201, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. Reinhart, Carmen & Asea, Patrick, 1995. "Real interest rate differentials and the real exchange rate: Evidence from four African countries," MPRA Paper 13357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  51. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Brubakk & Anne Sofie Jore, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Working Paper 2006/02, Norges Bank.
  52. Richard T. Froyen & Roger N. Waud, 1986. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," NBER Working Papers 2109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Naci H. Mocan & Kudret Topyan, 1993. "Illicit Drug Use and Health: Analysis and Projections of New York City Birth Outcomes Using a Kalman Filter Model," NBER Working Papers 4359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Tombolo, Guilherme Alexandre & Hasegawa, Marcos Minoru, 2014. "Okun's law: evidence for the Brazilian economy," MPRA Paper 54766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre, une comparaison France / Etats-Unis," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1907, Sciences Po.
  56. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
  57. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2013. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 748, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  58. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "On the Existence and Interpretation of the "Unit Root" in U.S. GNP," NBER Working Papers 2716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. M. Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013. "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Working Papers 1316, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  60. Roberto G. Quercia & Anthony Pennington-Cross & Chao Yue Tian, 2016. "Differential Impacts of Structural and Cyclical Unemployment on Mortgage Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 346-367, October.
  61. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Marc-André Gosselin & Sharon Kozicki, 2009. "Estimating DSGE-Model-Consistent Trends for Use in Forecasting," Staff Working Papers 09-35, Bank of Canada.
  62. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Solomos Solomou, 2014. "Can General Purpose Technology Theory Explain Economic Growth? Electrical Power as a Case Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 4683, CESifo Group Munich.
  63. Özlale, Ümit & Özbek, Levent, 2008. "Analyzing time-varying effects of potential output growth shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 294-300, March.
  64. Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter," BIS Working Papers 584, Bank for International Settlements.
  65. José Cendejas Bueno & Cecilia Font de Villanueva, 2015. "Convergence of inflation with a common cycle: estimating and modelling Spanish historical inflation from the 16th to the 18th centuries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1643-1665, June.
  66. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Guglielmo M.Caporale, 2005. "Long Memory at the Long Run and at the Cyclical Frequencies:Modelling Real Wages in England: 1260-1994," Faculty Working Papers 18/05, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  67. L Christopher Plantier & Ozer Karagedikli, 2005. "Do so-called multivariate filters have better revision properties? An empirical analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 250, Society for Computational Economics.
  68. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo Group Munich.
  69. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2128 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Alessandra Luati & Tommaso Proietti, 2010. "Hyper-spherical and elliptical stochastic cycles," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 169-181, 05.
  71. Labys, W C & Lesourd, J B & Badillo, D, 1998. "The existence of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 147-155, September.
  72. Rabanal, Cristian & Baronio, Alfredo Mario, 2010. "Alternativas para la modelización de tendencias y ciclos en la economía argentina, 1880-2009/Alternatives for Modeling Trends and Cycles in Argentina's Economy, 1880 - 2009," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 651-670, Diciembre.
  73. Carmen M. Reinhart & Peter Wickham, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 175-213, June.
  74. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
  75. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  76. Reinhart, Carmen & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 13704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  77. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2012. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 470, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  78. Tino Berger & Bernd Kempa, 2014. "Time-varying equilibrium rates in small open economies: Evidence for Canada," CQE Working Papers 3414, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  79. Shami, R.G. & Forbes, C.S., 2000. "A structural Time Series Model with Markov Switching," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  80. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  81. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring Inflation Persistence: A Structural Time Series Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 459, Society for Computational Economics.
  82. James Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2002. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Working Papers UWEC-2002-01, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  83. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  84. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  85. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2014. "Dynamics of Consumption and Dividends over the Business Cycle," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp522, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  86. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Ecart de production dans la zone euro : une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," Post-Print hal-01019442, HAL.
  87. Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2015. "What do Professional Forecasters actually predict?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-095/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Oct 2015.
  88. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
  89. Paul Alagidede, 2012. "Trends And Cycles In The Net Barter Terms Of Trade For Sub-Saharan Africa's Primary Commodity Exporters," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(2), pages 213-229, July-Dece.
  90. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  91. Steyn, I.J., 1989. "Consistent diffuse initial conditions in the Kalman filter," Serie Research Memoranda 0015, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  92. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "A Bayesian model comparison for trend-cycle decompositions of output," CAMA Working Papers 2015-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  93. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  94. Perron, Pierre, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356, mars et j.
  95. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit roots in macroeconomic time series: some critical issues," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 13-44.
  96. Constancio, V., 2012. "Contagion and the European debt crisis," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 109-121, April.
  97. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
  98. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
  99. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
  100. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Staff Working Papers 03-24, Bank of Canada.
  101. Luis Uzeda, 2016. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-632, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  102. Yoshinori Kawasaki & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Detecting seasonal unit roots in a structural time series model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 373-387.
  103. Olivier Basdevant, 2009. "How Can Burundi Raise its Growth Rate? the Impact of Civil Conflicts and State Interventionon Burundi'S Growth Performance," IMF Working Papers 09/11, International Monetary Fund.
  104. Djennad, Abdelmajid & Rigby, Robert & Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios & Voudouris, Vlasios & Eilers, Paul, 2015. "Beyond location and dispersion models: The Generalized Structural Time Series Model with Applications," MPRA Paper 62807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  105. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  106. Sharon Kozicki & P.A. Tinsley, 2006. "Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation," Staff Working Papers 06-46, Bank of Canada.
  107. Rasi, Chris-Marie & Viikari, Jan-Markus, 1998. "The time-varying NAIRU and potential output in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 6/1998, Bank of Finland.
  108. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:7:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
  109. Nabil ALIMI, 2016. "The Effect Of Economic Freedom On Business Cycle Volatility: Case Of Developing Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 139-158.
  110. Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "How Are Shocks to Trend and Cycle Correlated? A Simple Methodology for Unidentified Unobserved Components Models," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  111. F. DePenya & L. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Testing of nonstationary cycles in financial time series data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 47-65, August.
  112. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," Bank of England working papers 587, Bank of England.
  113. Elena Loukoianova & Shaun P Vahey, 2003. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 118, Society for Computational Economics.
  114. Saligari, G.R. & Snyder, R.D., 1996. "Trends, Lead Times and Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  115. Warapong Wongwachara & Anusorn Minphimai, 2009. "Unobserved Component Models of the Phillips Relation in the ASEAN Economy," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 241-256, July.
  116. Tim Willems, 2009. "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-074/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Mar 2010.
  117. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "Generalised Linear Spectral Models," CEIS Research Paper 290, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 03 Oct 2013.
  118. S. Solomou & C. A. Ristuccia, 2002. "British Episodic Economic Growth 1850-1938," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0208, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  119. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
  120. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4).
  121. Walter C. Labys, 2003. "New Directions in the Modeling and Forecasting of Commodity Markets," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 122(2), pages 3-19.
  122. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
  123. Konstantinos Drakos & Cathérine Müller, 2010. "Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 37, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  124. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
  125. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
  126. AKA, Bédia F., 2009. "Business Cycle And Sectoral Fluctuations: A Nonlinear Model For Côte D’Ivoire," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1), pages 111-126.
  127. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
  128. Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2003. "The Fiscal Smile; The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Working Papers 03/182, International Monetary Fund.
  129. Nicholas Sander, 2013. "Fresh perspectives on unobservable variables: Data decomposition of the Kalman smoother," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  130. Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2000. "Testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,70, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  131. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "On the identification of multivariate correlated unobserved components models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 15-18.
  132. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2006. "Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0618, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  133. Richard Harris & Brian Silverstone, 2000. "Asymmetric Adjustment of Unemployment and Output in New Zealand: Rediscovering Okun's Law," Working Papers in Economics 00/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  134. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
  135. Syed Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Working Paper Series 24, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
  136. Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Non-oil commodity prices: Cyclical weakness or secular decline?," MPRA Paper 13871, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  137. Roland G. Shami & Catherine S. Forbes, 2002. "Non-linear Modelling of the Australian Business Cycle using a Leading Indicator," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  138. Abbas Valadkhani, 2015. "Asymmetric size-dependent effects of the output gap on inflation: US evidence from the last half a century," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3525-3539, July.
  139. Santiago Herrera, 1997. "Una evaluación distinta de la situación fiscal colombiana," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, September.
  140. Higuchi, Tomoyuki, 1999. "Applications of quasi-periodic oscillation models to seasonal small count time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 281-301, May.
  141. Rafael Cusinato & André Minella & Sabino Silva Pôrto Júnior, 2013. "Output gap in Brazil: a real-time data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1113-1127, June.
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