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Citations for "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series"

by Harvey, A C

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  1. Amy Guisinger & Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Michael Owyang & Tara Sinclair, 2015. "A State-Level Analysis of Okun's Law," Working Papers 2015-17, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  2. Giovanni Calice & RongHui Miao & Filip Sterba & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Short-Term Determinants of the Idiosyncratic Sovereign Risk Premium: A Regime-Dependent Analysis for European Credit Default Swaps," Working Papers 2013/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Orphanides, Athanasios & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The Reliability of Inflation Forecasts Based on Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, "undated". "Information, Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/7, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, "undated". "El Desempleo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 176, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Charles Engel & James Morley, 2000. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0009, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  9. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Variables observables et inobservables dans la théorie du taux de chômage d'équilibre, une comparaison France / Etats-Unis," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1907, Sciences Po.
  10. Guilherme Alexandre Tombolo & Marcos Minoru Hasegawa, 2014. "Okun’s Law: Evidence for the Brazilian Economy," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 2-12, June.
  11. Jacky Fayolle & Alexandre Mathis, 1993. "Tendances et cycles stylisés dans les pays du G7 - Une approche stochastique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(1), pages 201-233.
  12. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Tom Bernhardsen & ØYvind Eitrheim, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Output gap revisions and challenges for monetary policy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 274, Society for Computational Economics.
  14. Van Norden, Simon, 2004. "Filtres pour l’analyse courante," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(2), pages 523-546, Juin-Sept.
  15. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po publications 2008-34, Sciences Po.
  16. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth De la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle : une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
  17. Shami, R.G. & Forbes, C.S., 2000. "A structural Time Series Model with Markov Switching," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  18. Walter C. Labys, 2003. "New Directions in the Modeling and Forecasting of Commodity Markets," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 122(2), pages 3-19.
  19. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
  20. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2012. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 734, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  21. Didier Nibbering & Richard Paap & Michel van der Wel, 2015. "What do Professional Forecasters actually predict?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-095/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Oct 2015.
  22. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2005. "The reliability of Canadian output-gap estimates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 373-393, December.
  23. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
  24. Jacky Fayolle & Alexandre Mathis, 1994. "Structure des taux d'intérêt et mouvements cycliques des économies américaine et française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 125-148.
  25. Anindya Banerjee & Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock, 1990. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis: Theory and International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Brubakk, Leif & Jore, Anne Sofie, 2006. "Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap," Memorandum 11/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  27. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2015. "A Bayesian model comparison for trend-cycle decompositions of output," CAMA Working Papers 2015-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  28. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
  29. Steven Cook & Alan Speight, 2005. "A deeper look at asymmetries in UK consumers' expenditure: the nonparametric analysis of 100 disaggregates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 893-900.
  30. Olivier Basdevant, 2009. "How Can Burundi Raise its Growth Rate? the Impact of Civil Conflicts and State Interventionon Burundi'S Growth Performance," IMF Working Papers 09/11, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Konstantinos Drakos & Catherine Mueller, 2014. "On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 291-310, June.
  32. Bennett T. McCallum, 1993. "Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Critical Issues," NBER Working Papers 4368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 220-226, October.
  34. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12185 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Hahn, Franz & Ruenstler, Gerhard, 1996. "Potential Output, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and the Phillips Curve in a Multivariate Structural Time Series Framework," Economics Series 33, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  36. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:60:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Frederic Dufourt, 2005. "Demand and Productivity Components of Business Cycles: Estimates and Implications," Working Papers halshs-00789009, HAL.
  38. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Emi Mise & Kalvinder Shields, 2006. "Real Time Representation of the UK Output Gap in the Presence of Trend Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0618, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  39. Charles R. Nelson, 2006. "The Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition in Retrospect and Prospect," Working Papers UWEC-2007-30, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  40. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
  41. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Solomos Solomou, "undated". "Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? Electrical power as a case study," Working Papers 18, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge.
  42. Roland G. Shami & Catherine S. Forbes, 2002. "Non-linear Modelling of the Australian Business Cycle using a Leading Indicator," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  43. Moolman, Elna, 2004. "A Markov switching regime model of the South African business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 631-646, July.
  44. Duo Qin, 2010. "Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics," Working Papers 669, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  45. Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP so Different?," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0692, Econometric Society.
  46. M. Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013. "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Working Papers 1316, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  47. Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2000. "Testing stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,70, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  48. Imad A. Moosa, 2008. "Forecasting the Chinese Yuan-US Dollar Exchange Rate under the New Chinese Exchange Rate Regime," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, April.
  49. Maria Silgoner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2004. "The fiscal smile - on the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  50. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "On the identification of multivariate correlated unobserved components models," Working Papers 15-12, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  51. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil‐Alana, 2014. "Long‐Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 147-161, 03.
  52. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing of Nonstationary Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," Faculty Working Papers 15/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  53. James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 451, Society for Computational Economics.
  54. David Kiefer, 2010. "A 2-Equation Model of the North Atlantic Economies, a Dynamic Panel Study," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2010_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  55. Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2003. "The Fiscal Smile; The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Working Papers 03/182, International Monetary Fund.
  56. Tino Berger, 2011. "Estimating Europe’s natural rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 521-536, April.
  57. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1990. "The long term behavior of commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 358, The World Bank.
  58. Pierre Villa, 1999. "Cycles de la production industrielle : une analyse historique dans le domaine des fréquences," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 137(1), pages 95-108.
  59. Wakerly, Elizabeth C & Elena Loukoianova & Shaun P. Vahey, 2003. "A Real Time Tax Smoothing Based Fiscal Policy Rule," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 215, Royal Economic Society.
  60. Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "How Are Shocks to Trend and Cycle Correlated? A Simple Methodology for Unidentified Unobserved Components Models," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  61. Arabinda Basistha, 2009. "Hours per capita and productivity: evidence from correlated unobserved components models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 187-206.
  62. Michael Kiley, 2010. "Output gaps," 2010 Meeting Papers 266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  63. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juncal Cunado & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2008. "Modelling Long-Run Trends and Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 2330, CESifo Group Munich.
  64. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
  65. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2013. "International Fiscal Policy Coordination and GDP Comovement," CESifo Working Paper Series 4358, CESifo Group Munich.
  66. Tino Berger & Bernd Kempa, 2014. "Time-varying equilibrium rates in small open economies: Evidence for Canada," CQE Working Papers 3414, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  67. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Tommaso Proietti & Alessandra Luati, 2013. "Generalised Linear Spectral Models," CEIS Research Paper 290, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 03 Oct 2013.
  69. Edoardo Otranto, 2005. "Extraction of Common Signal from Series with Different Frequency," Econometrics 0502011, EconWPA.
  70. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "On the Existence and Interpretation of the "Unit Root" in U.S. GNP," NBER Working Papers 2716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
  72. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  73. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2014. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-78.
  74. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
  75. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2012. "Real-time properties of the Federal Reserve's output gap," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-86, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  76. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
  77. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
  78. Sly, Nicholas & Weber, Caroline, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  79. T. Berger & G. Everaert, 2006. "Re-examining the Structural and the Persistence Approach to Unemployment," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/383, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  80. Yoshinori Kawasaki, 1996. "A Model Selection Approach to detect Seasonal Unit Roots," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 96-180/7, Tinbergen Institute.
  81. Paul Alagidede, 2012. "Trends And Cycles In The Net Barter Terms Of Trade For Sub-Saharan Africa's Primary Commodity Exporters," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(2), pages 213-229, July-Dece.
  82. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
  83. Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
  84. Rafael Cusinato & André Minella & Sabino Silva Pôrto Júnior, 2013. "Output gap in Brazil: a real-time data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1113-1127, June.
  85. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  86. Labys, W C & Lesourd, J B & Badillo, D, 1998. "The existence of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 147-155, September.
  87. Philip Hans Franses & Yoshinori Kawasaki, 2004. "Do seasonal unit roots matter for forecasting monthly industrial production?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 77-88.
  88. Jun Ma & Charles R. Nelson, 2008. "Valid Inference for a Class of Models Where Standard Inference Performs Poorly: Including Nonlinear Regression, ARMA, GARCH, and Unobserved Components," Working Papers UWEC-2008-06-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
  89. Gonzalo, Jesus & Martinez, Oscar, 2006. "Large shocks vs. small shocks. (Or does size matter? May be so.)," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 311-347.
  90. Dufourt, 2005. "Demand and productivity components of business cycles: Estimates and implications," Macroeconomics 0501013, EconWPA, revised 08 Sep 2005.
  91. Moosa, Imad A., 1999. "Cyclical output, cyclical unemployment, and Okun's coefficient A structural time series approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 293-304, September.
  92. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Talvi, Ernesto, 1998. "Capital flows and saving in Latin America and Asia: a reinterpretation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 45-66, October.
  93. Nabil ALIMI, 2016. "The Effect Of Economic Freedom On Business Cycle Volatility: Case Of Developing Countries," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 139-158.
  94. McKelvie, S. & Hall, Viv B., 2012. "Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective," Working Paper Series 2364, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  95. S. Adnan H. A. S. Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "Estimating Output Gap for Pakistan Economy: Structural and Statistical Approaches," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 4, pages 31-60.
  96. Maarten Dossche & Gerdie Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Paper Research 70, National Bank of Belgium.
  97. Scott, A. & Acemoglu, D., 1995. "Asymmetric Business Cycles: Theory and Time-series Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 99173, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  98. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger & Nicholas Sly, 2012. "Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners," NBER Working Papers 18032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  99. Reinhart, Carmen, 1988. "Real Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices in a Neoclassical Model," MPRA Paper 13188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  100. Alexander Dokumentov & Rob J. Hyndman, 2015. "STR: A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  101. Samuel Bates & Cheikh Tidiane Ndiaye, 2014. "Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal," Post-Print hal-01291329, HAL.
  102. Liang, Kuo-Yuan & Yen, Chen-Hui, 2014. "Dissecting the cycles: An intermarket investigation and its implications to portfolio reallocation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 39-51.
  103. AKA, Bédia F., 2009. "Business Cycle And Sectoral Fluctuations: A Nonlinear Model For Côte D’Ivoire," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1), pages 111-126.
  104. Marta Areosa, 2008. "Combining Hodrick-Prescott Filtering with a Production Function Approach to Estimate Output Gap," Working Papers Series 172, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  105. Lester C. Hunt & Guy Judge & Yashushi Ninomiya, 2000. "Modelling Technical Progress: An Application of the Stochastic Trend Model to UK Energy Demand," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 99, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  106. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  107. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  108. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2013. "Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 162-172.
  109. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2128 is not listed on IDEAS
  110. Viktor Winschel, 2005. "Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Economic Models without the Curse of Dimensionality," GE, Growth, Math methods 0507014, EconWPA.
  111. Djennad, Abdelmajid & Rigby, Robert & Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios & Voudouris, Vlasios & Eilers, Paul, 2015. "Beyond location and dispersion models: The Generalized Structural Time Series Model with Applications," MPRA Paper 62807, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  112. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Using A Forward-Looking Phillips Curve to Estimate the Output Gap in Peru," Working Papers 2009-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  113. Tim Willems, 2009. "Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-074/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 26 Mar 2010.
  114. Nicholas Sander, 2013. "Fresh perspectives on unobservable variables: Data decomposition of the Kalman smoother," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  115. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Long memory at the long run and at the cyclical frequencies: modelling real wages in England, 1260–1994," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 83-93, March.
  116. Rasi, Chris-Marie & Viikari, Jan-Markus, 1998. "The time-varying NAIRU and potential output in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 6/1998, Bank of Finland.
  117. José Cendejas Bueno & Cecilia Font de Villanueva, 2015. "Convergence of inflation with a common cycle: estimating and modelling Spanish historical inflation from the 16th to the 18th centuries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1643-1665, June.
  118. Perron, Pierre, 1992. "Racines unitaires en macroéconomie : le cas d’une variable," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 325-356, mars et j.
  119. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
  120. Simon van Norden, 2002. "Filtering for Current Analysis," Staff Working Papers 02-28, Bank of Canada.
  121. Hirohisa Kohama, 1995. "Japan's Development Cooperation and Economic Development in East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience, NBER-EASE Volume 4, pages 201-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  122. Arabinda Basistha, 2005. "Trend-Cycle Correlation, Drift Break and the Estimation of Trend and Cycle in Canadian GDP," Working Papers 05-07 Classification- JEL, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
  123. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
  124. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2016. "Real-Time Properties of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 785-791, October.
  125. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Ecart de production dans la zone euro : une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," Post-Print hal-01019442, HAL.
  126. Bernhardsen, Tom & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jore, Anne Sofie & Roisland, Oistein, 2005. "Real-time data for Norway: Challenges for monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 333-349, December.
  127. Warapong Wongwachara & Anusorn Minphimai, 2009. "Unobserved Component Models of the Phillips Relation in the ASEAN Economy," Journal of Economics and Management, College of Business, Feng Chia University, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 241-256, July.
  128. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1988. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 183-201, April.
  129. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2008. "The impact of outliers on transitory and permanent components in macroeconomic time series," Post-Print hal-00765362, HAL.
  130. Özbek, Levent & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Analysis of real oil prices via trend-cycle decomposition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3676-3683, July.
  131. Joanne S. Ercolani, 2007. "Cyclical Trends in Continuous Time Models," Discussion Papers 07-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  132. Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Spurious trend and cycle in the state space decomposition of a time series with a unit root," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 475-488.
  133. Yoshinori Kawasaki & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Detecting seasonal unit roots in a structural time series model," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 373-387.
  134. Saligari, G.R. & Snyder, R.D., 1996. "Trends, Lead Times and Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  135. David Kiefer, 2008. "Inflation Targeting, the Natural Rate and Expectations," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2008_03, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  136. Richard Harris & Brian Silverstone, 2000. "Asymmetric Adjustment of Unemployment and Output in New Zealand: Rediscovering Okun's Law," Working Papers in Economics 00/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics.
  137. Victor Zarnowitz, 1987. "The Regularity of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  138. Santiago Herrera, 1997. "Una evaluación distinta de la situación fiscal colombiana," COYUNTURA ECONÓMICA, FEDESARROLLO, September.
  139. Aka, B.F., 2004. "Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(4), pages -.
  140. Odile Chagny & Matthieu Lemoine, 2003. "Écart de production dans la zone euro. Une estimation par le filtre de Hodrick-Prescott multivarié," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 86(3), pages 173-202.
  141. David Kiefer, 2008. "New Keynesian Endogenous Stabilization in a Panel of Countries," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2008_19, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
  142. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  143. Abbas Valadkhani, 2015. "Asymmetric size-dependent effects of the output gap on inflation: US evidence from the last half a century," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(33), pages 3525-3539, July.
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  150. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
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  152. Tawadros, George B., 2011. "The stylised facts of Australia's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 549-556.
  153. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
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  155. Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Business survey forecasts and measurement of output trends in five European economies," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 52, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  156. Calice, Giovanni & Ioannidis, Christos & Miao, RongHui, 2016. "A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 189-204.
  157. Solomou, Solomos & Shimazaki, Masao, 2007. "Japanese episodic long swings in economic growth," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 224-241, April.
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  159. Drakos, Konstantinos & Müller, Cathérine, 2011. "Terrorism risk concern in Europe," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 195-197, August.
  160. Hall, Viv & Thomson, Peter & McKelvie, Stuart, 2015. "On trend robustness and end-point issues for New Zealand’s stylised business cycle facts," Working Paper Series 3761, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
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  166. L.A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Fractional Cyclical Structures & Business Cycles in the Specification of the US Real Output," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 99-126.
  167. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2014. "Dynamics of Consumption and Dividends over the Business Cycle," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp522, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
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  169. Constancio, V., 2012. "Contagion and the European debt crisis," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 109-121, April.
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