IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aareaj/118043.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regime shifts and technology diffusion in crop yield growth paths with an application to maize yields in Zimbabwe

Author

Listed:
  • Myers, Robert J.
  • Jayne, Thomas S.

Abstract

An alternative specification for the trend component of crop yield growth is developed and applied to maize yield data for Zimbabwe’s large‐scale farming sector. This accounts for permanent regime shifts as new technologies are discovered but allows gradual absorption as adoption follows a diffusion path. Econometric methods are used to estimate the timing and importance of innovations, as well as the length of the diffusion path. Results from an application to Zimbabwe commercial maize yields indicate two major regime shifts that can be associated with the introduction of hybrid seed varieties, and a diffusion path that extends over a decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Myers, Robert J. & Jayne, Thomas S., 1997. "Regime shifts and technology diffusion in crop yield growth paths with an application to maize yields in Zimbabwe," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(3), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118043
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.118043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/118043/files/1467-8489.00015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.118043?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    2. Antle, John M, 1983. "Infrastructure and Aggregate Agricultural Productivity: International Evidence," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(3), pages 609-619, April.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    4. Michael S. Kaylen & Suffyanu S. Koroma, 1991. "Trend, Weather Variables, and the Distribution of U.S. Corn Yields," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 249-258.
    5. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
    6. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1994. "Diffusion of Technical Change and the Decomposition of Output into Trend and Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 19-30.
    8. Charles B. Moss & J. S. Shonkwiler, 1993. "Estimating Yield Distributions with a Stochastic Trend and Nonnormal Errors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1056-1062.
    9. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    10. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    11. Howard D. Leathers & Melinda Smale, 1991. "A Bayesian Approach to Explaining Sequential Adoption of Components of a Technological Package," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 73(3), pages 734-742.
    12. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    13. Fackler, Paul L., 1989. "Modeling Trend and Higher Moment Properties of U.S. Corn Yields," 1989 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk Meeting, April 9-12, 1989, Sanibel Island, Florida 271523, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
    14. Kenneth M. Menz & Philip Pardey, 1983. "Technology and U.S. Corn Yields: Plateaus and Price Responsiveness," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(3), pages 558-562.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Agnolucci & Vincenzo De Lipsis, 2020. "Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 385-405, April.
    2. Ker, Alan P. & Coble, Keith H., 1998. "On Choosing A Base Coverage Level For Multiple Peril Crop Insurance Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Ruttan, Vernon W., 2008. "Research Lags Revisited: Concepts and Evidence from U.S. Agriculture," Staff Papers 50091, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Niels Haldrup & Robinson Kruse & Timo Teräsvirta & Rasmus T. Varneskov, 2013. "Unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 4, pages 61-94, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Joseph P. Byrne & Roger Perman, 2006. "Unit Roots and Structural Breaks: A Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 2006_10, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    5. Kellard, Neil & Mark E Wohar, 2003. "Trends and Persistence in Primary Commodity Prices," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 118, Royal Economic Society.
    6. Marcela Sabaté, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and Nonstationarities in International Trade Series," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp309, IIIS.
    7. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    8. Djuric, Ivan & Götz, Linde, 2016. "Export restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-123.
    9. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2002. "Testing for stationarity with a break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 63-99, May.
    10. Ahn & Byung Chul, 1994. "Testing the null of stationarity in the presence of structural breaks for multiple time series," Econometrics 9411001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Nov 1994.
    11. Dimitrios Dadakas & Erotokritos Varelas, 2009. "The decomposition of Greek real GDP (1858–1938)," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(2), pages 189-202, June.
    12. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
    13. Brodsky, Boris, 2008. "Structural Changes and Unit Roots: Distinguishing Models of Nonstationary Time Series," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 11(3), pages 52-63.
    14. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Mehmet Balcilar & Aysit Tansel, 2013. "International Labour Force Participation Rates By Gender: Unit Root Or Structural Breaks?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 142-164, May.
    15. Monika Blaszkiewicz-Schwartzman, 2007. "Explaining Exchange Rate Movements in New Member States of the European Union: Nominal and Real Convergence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 144, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    16. John Dawson & Amit Sen, 2007. "New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 199-230, September.
    17. Martin Schmidt, 2011. "Institutional Change and Factor Movement in Major League Baseball: An Examination of the Coase Theorem’s Invariance Principle," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 39(3), pages 187-205, November.
    18. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    19. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    20. Popp, Stephan, 2007. "Identification of the true break date in innovational outlier unit root tests," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 152, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crop Production/Industries;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118043. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.