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Illicit Drug Use and Health: Analysis and Projections of New York City Birth Outcomes Using a Kalman Filter Model

  • Naci H. Mocan
  • Kudret Topyan

Using monthly data from New York City that span the years 19781990 we investigate the relationship between the incidence of drug use during pregnancy and the rate of low birth weight Estimation results indicate that the increase in pregnancies complicated by drug use accounts for 71 percent of the increase in the rate of Black low birth weight between 1983-84 and 1990. If the use of drugs among Black pregnant women is reduced to its 1978 level, this would reduce the number of Black low birth weight babies by 8% (40 births per month) with respect to the level that would have been observed in the absence of any intervention. This implies an annual $5.1 to $6.8 million (in 1990 dollars) savings in terms of avoided initial hospitalization and special education costs. We could not find a significant relationship between drug use and the rate of low birth weight for whites.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4359.

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Date of creation: May 1993
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Publication status: published as Southern Economic Journal vol.62, no.1, pp.164-182. july 1995
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4359
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  1. Chaikind, Stephen & Corman, Hope, 1991. "The impact of low birthweight on special education costs," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 291-311, October.
  2. Theodore J. Joyce & Naci H. Mocan, 1991. "Unemployment and Infant Health: Times-Series Evidence from the State of Tennessee," NBER Working Papers 3694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Joyce, Theodore & Racine, Andrew D. & Mocan, Naci, 1992. "The consequences and costs of maternal substance abuse in New York City : A pooled time-series, cross-section analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 297-314, October.
  4. Mark R. Rosenzweig & T. Paul Schultz, 1982. "The Behavior of Mothers as Inputs to Child Health: The Determinants of Birth Weight, Gestation, and Rate of Fetal Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Aspects of Health, pages 53-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. J. A. Hausman & W. E. Taylor, 1980. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Working papers 255, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Hope Corman & Theodore J. Joyce & Michael Grossman, 1985. "Birth Outcome Production Functions in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 1729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  8. Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 299-307, October.
  9. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  10. Hope Corman & Theodore J. Joyce & Michael Grossman, 1987. "Birth Outcome Production Function in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 339-360.
  11. Hannan, E J & Terrell, R D & Tuckwell, N E, 1970. "The Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 11(1), pages 24-52, February.
  12. Schmidt, Peter & Sickles, Robin C, 1984. "Production Frontiers and Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 367-74, October.
  13. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
  14. Harvey, A. C., 1986. "The effects of seat belt legislation on British road casualities: A case study in structural modelling : A.C. Harvey and J. Durbing, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 149 (1986) (in p," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 496-497.
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