British Episodic Economic Growth 1850-1938
This paper argues that non-random measurement errors in the estimates of British Gross Domestic Product makes the compromise estimate a biased indicator of medium-term economic growth. Since the compromise estimate of GDP has been widely accepted and used to describe macroeconomic trends in the British economy this has resulted in descriptions of British economic growth that are best explained as statistical artifacts. This paper questions the existence of an “Edwardian Climacteric”, argues for a rethinking of the myth of the “Great Depression” and offers new insights on inter-war economic growth.
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- Paul David & Gavin Wright, 1999.
"Early Twentieth Century Productivity Growth Dynamics: An Inquiry into the Economic History of Our Ignorance,"
Economics Series Working Papers
1999-W33, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Paul A. David & Gavin Wright, 1999. "Early Twentieth Century Productivity Growth Dynamics: An Inquiry into the Economic History of "Our Ignorance"," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _033, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Paul A. David & Gavin Wright, 2005. "Early Twentieth Century Productivity Growth Dynamics: An Inquiry into the Economic History of “Our Ignorance”," Macroeconomics 0502023, EconWPA.
- David, P.A., 1989. "Computer And Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox In A Not-Too Distant Mirror," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 339, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Charles Feinstein & Mark Thomas, 2001. "A Plea for Errors," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _041, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
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