Economic Growth from a Structural Unobserved Component Modeling: The Case of Senegal
Using the structural unobserved component (UC) modeling, this study analyzes the Senegalese economic growth path after 5 decades of independence by focusing on the potential output, the GDP cycle and the type of shocks on the GDP. Empirical evidence suggests that an inventory cycle mainly drives the GDP short-term component with a time-varying extent of fluctuations. The main sources of shocks result from external determining factors with an impact on the long run. However, their persistent effects have been mitigated particularly since the devaluation of 1994. International institutions have partially motivated the relative successful GDP growth path of Senegal. Nevertheless, some structural internal improvements are needed to balance the financial and productive flaws in order to consolidate both the "resilience" to shocks and the macroeconomic stabilization.
|Date of creation:||2014|
|Publication status:||Published in Economics Bulletin, 2014, 34 (2)|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01291329|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Xiaoshan Chen & Terence Mills, 2012. "Measuring the Euro area output gap using a multivariate unobserved components model containing phase shifts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 671-692, October.
- Charles R. Nelson, 1987.
"Spurious Trend and Cycle in the State Space Decomposition of a Time Series with a Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Spurious trend and cycle in the state space decomposition of a time series with a unit root," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 475-488.
- Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996.
"Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?,"
Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada
1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
- Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Technical Reports 78, Bank of Canada.
- Gerhard Runstler, 2004. "Modelling phase shifts among stochastic cycles," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 232-248, 06.
- Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2001.
"Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?,"
62445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000.
"Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-285, May.
- C. John McDermott & Eswar S Prasad & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, .
- Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M., 2001.
"General Model-based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0113, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Andrew C. Harvey & Thomas M. Trimbur, 2003. "General Model-Based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 244-255, May.
- International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability; Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/121, .
- Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
- Jorge Roldos & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1996.
"The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Brazil and Korea,"
IMF Working Papers
- Hoffmaister, Alexander W. & Roldos, Jorge E., 2001. "The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Brazil and Korea," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 213-239, April.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003.
"The Band Pass Filter,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band Pass Filter," NBER Working Papers 7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "CFFILTER: RATS procedure to perform band pass filter using Christiano-Fitzgerald method," Statistical Software Components RTS00034, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Siem Jan Koopman & João Valle E Azevedo, 2008. "Measuring Synchronization and Convergence of Business Cycles for the Euro area, UK and US," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 23-51, 02.
- Kodama, Masahiro, 2006. "Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries," IDE Discussion Papers 52, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
- Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
- Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
- Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Cyclical fiscal policy in Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 254-267, March.
- Brou E Aka & Bernardin Akitoby & Amor Tahari & Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2004. "Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/176, .
- Panicos O. Demetriades & Gregory A. James, 2011.
"Finance and Growth in Africa: The Broken Link,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
11/17, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
- Philippe Bonnefond & Philippe Couty, 1988. "Sénégal : passé et avenir d'une crise agricole," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 29(114), pages 319-340.
- Damien Echevin & Fabrice Murtin, 2009. "What Determines Productivity in Senegal? Sectoral Disparities and the Dual Labour Market," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1707-1730.
- Bräuning, Falk & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2014.
"Forecasting macroeconomic variables using collapsed dynamic factor analysis,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-584.
- Falk Brauning & Siem Jan Koopman, 2012. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-042/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Claude Dupuy, 1990. "Les associations villageoises au Sénégal : fonctions économiques et modalités de financement," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 31(122), pages 351-375.
- Raddatz, Claudio, 2007.
"Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low-income countries?,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 155-187, September.
- Raddatz, Claudio, 2005. "Are external shocks responsible for the instability of output in low income countries?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3680, The World Bank.
- Goldsmith, Peter D. & Gunjal, Kisan & Ndarishikanye, Barnabe, 2004. "Rural-urban migration and agricultural productivity: the case of Senegal," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 33-45, July.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Chris Papageorgiou & Hans Weisfeld & Catherine A Pattillo & Martin Schindler & Nicola Spatafora & Andrew Berg, 2011. "Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries; Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/27, .
- Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01291329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.