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Trends, lead times and forecasting


  • Saligari, Grant R.
  • Snyder, Ralph D.


The local linear trend and global linear trend models embody extreme assumptions about trends. According to the local linear trend formulation the level and growth rate are allowed to rapidly adapt to changes in the data path. On the other hand, the Glaobal linear trend model makes no allowance for structural change. In this paper we introduce a new model that, as well as encompassing the global linear trend and local linear trend models, allows for a range of "in between" cases.
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Suggested Citation

  • Saligari, Grant R. & Snyder, Ralph D., 1997. "Trends, lead times and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 477-488, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:13:y:1997:i:4:p:477-488

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gersch, Will & Kitagawa, Genshiro, 1983. "The Prediction of Time Series with Trends and Seasonalities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 253-264, July.
    2. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec..
    3. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    4. P. J. Harrison, 1967. "Exponential Smoothing and Short-Term Sales Forecasting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(11), pages 821-842, July.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    6. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Haim H. Bau & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2002. "Chaos Theory And Its Application," Penn CARESS Working Papers 6a7863cdd8e575c9e635b060c, Penn Economics Department.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes


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