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Recursive Estimation in Econometrics

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  • Stephen Pollock

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

An account is given of recursive regression and of Kalman filtering which gathers the important results and the ideas that lie behind them within a small compass. It emphasises the areas in which econometricians have made contributions, which include the methods for handling the initial-value problem associated with nonstationary processes and the algorithms of fixed-interval smoothing.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen Pollock, 2002. "Recursive Estimation in Econometrics," Working Papers 462, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:462
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    File URL: https://www.qmul.ac.uk/sef/media/econ/research/workingpapers/2002/items/wp462.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diebold, Francis X., 1986. "Exact maximum-likelihood estimation of autoregressive models via the Kalman filter," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(2-3), pages 197-201.
    2. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    3. G. Gardner & A. C. Harvey & G. D. A. Phillips, 1980. "An Algorithm for Exact Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Autoregressive–Moving Average Models by Means of Kaiman Filtering," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(3), pages 311-322, November.
    4. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    5. Diebold, Francis X., 1986. "The exact initial covariance matrix of the state vector of a general MA(q) process," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-31.
    6. Maravall, Agustin, 1985. "On Structural Time Series Models and the Characterization of Components," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 350-355, October.
    7. Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-1369, November.
    8. Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 299-307, October.
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    10. Gersch, Will & Kitagawa, Genshiro, 1983. "The Prediction of Time Series with Trends and Seasonalities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 253-264, July.
    11. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1982. "Recursive stability analysis of linear regression relationships: An exploratory methodology," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 31-76, May.
    12. Andrew C. Harvey, 1990. "The Econometric Analysis of Time Series, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 026208189x, December.
    13. Craig F. Ansley & Robert Kohn, 1990. "Filtering And Smoothing In State Space Models With Partially Diffuse Initial Conditions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 275-293, July.
    14. Barr Rosenberg, 1973. "The Analysis of a Cross Section of Time Series by Stochastically Convergent Parameter Regression," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 2, number 4, pages 399-428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study: Response," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 313-315, October.
    16. Pollock, D. S. G., 2000. "Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mewael F. Tesfaselassie & Eric Schaling & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2011. "Learning about the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1685-1706, December.
    2. Tesfaselassie, M.F., 2005. "Communication, learning and optimal monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 33c69063-eed7-4938-9f51-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Recursive regression; Kalman filtering; Fixed-interval smoothing; The initial-value problem;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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