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Trends, Lead Times and Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Saligari, G.R.
  • Snyder, R.D.

Abstract

The local linear trend and global linear trend models embody extreme assumptions about trends. According to the local linear trend formulation the level and growth rate are allowed to rapidly adapt to changes in the data path. On the other hand, the Glaobal linear trend model makes no allowance for structural change. In this paper we introduce a new model that, as well as encompassing the global linear trend and local linear trend models, allows for a range of "in between" cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Saligari, G.R. & Snyder, R.D., 1996. "Trends, Lead Times and Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/96, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:1996-1
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Haim H. Bau & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2002. "Chaos Theory And Its Application," Penn CARESS Working Papers 6a7863cdd8e575c9e635b060c, Penn Economics Department.

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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