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The Prediction of Time Series with Trends and Seasonalities


  • Gersch, Will
  • Kitagawa, Genshiro


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Suggested Citation

  • Gersch, Will & Kitagawa, Genshiro, 1983. "The Prediction of Time Series with Trends and Seasonalities," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(3), pages 253-264, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:1:y:1983:i:3:p:253-64

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Keeley, Michael C, et al, 1978. "The Estimation of Labor Supply Models Using Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 873-887, December.
    2. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    3. Tuma, Nancy Brandon & Robins, Philip K, 1980. "A Dynamic Model of Employment Behavior: An Application to the Seattle and Denver Income Maintenance Experiments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1031-1052, May.
    4. Akerlof, George A & Main, Brian G M, 1980. "Unemployment Spells and Unemployment Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 885-893, December.
    5. Bowers, J K & Harkess, D, 1979. "Duration of Unemployment by Age and Sex," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 46(183), pages 239-260, August.
    6. Kenneth Burdett & Nicholas M. Kiefer & Dale T. Mortensen & George R. Neumann, 1984. "Earnings, Unemployment, and the Allocation of Time Over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(4), pages 559-578.
    7. Stephen W. Salant, 1977. "Search Theory and Duration Data: A Theory of Sorts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-57.
    8. Frank, Robert H, 1978. "How Long Is a Spell of Unemployment?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 285-302, March.
    9. Robert E. Hall, 1972. "Turnover in the Labor Force," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(3), pages 709-764.
    10. Stephen T. Marston, 1976. "Employment Instability and High Unemployment Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(1), pages 169-210.
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    Cited by:

    1. Atkinson, A. C. & Koopman, S. J. & Shephard, N., 1997. "Detecting shocks: Outliers and breaks in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 387-422, October.
    2. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 2009. "Seasonality with trend and cycle interactions in unobserved components models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 58(4), pages 427-448.
    3. Thury, Gerhard & Witt, Stephen F., 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using structural time series models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 751-767, December.
    4. Vos, A.F. & Steyn, I.J., 1990. "Stochastic nonlinearity : a firm basis for the flexible functional form," Serie Research Memoranda 0013, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    5. McElroy, Tucker & Wildi, Marc, 2013. "Multi-step-ahead estimation of time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 378-394.
    6. Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005. "Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
    7. Kato, Hiroko & Naniwa, Sadao & Ishiguro, Makio, 1996. "A bayesian multivariate nonstationary time series model for estimating mutual relationships among variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 147-161, November.
    8. Ohkusa, Yasushi, 1995. "Testing for the matching hypothesis in Japanese manufacturing," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 175-198, July.
    9. Catalin Angelo IOAN & Gina IOAN, 2013. "The Open Society, Institutions and Economic Performance," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(32), pages 175-180, September.
    10. Jukka Nyblom & Andrew Harvey, 2001. "Testing against smooth stochastic trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 415-429.
    11. R. Bhansali, 1996. "Asymptotically efficient autoregressive model selection for multistep prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 48(3), pages 577-602, September.
    12. Aslihan Atabek & Evren Erdogan Cosar & Saygin Sahinöz, 2005. "A New Composite Leading Indicator for Turkish Economic Activity," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 45-64, January.
    13. Pollock, D. S. G., 2003. "Recursive estimation in econometrics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 37-75, October.
    14. T. Higuchi, 1991. "Frequency domain characteristics of linear operator to decompose a time series into the multi-components," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 43(3), pages 469-492, September.
    15. Peter Young, 1999. "Recursive and en-bloc approaches to signal extraction," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 103-128.
    16. Sánchez, Ismael & Peña, Daniel, 1995. "Properties of predictors in overdifferenced nearly nonstationary autoregression," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10347, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    17. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
    18. Saligari, Grant R. & Snyder, Ralph D., 1997. "Trends, lead times and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 477-488, December.

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