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End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey

  • M. Fatih Ekinci
  • Gazi Kabas
  • Enes Sunel

Estimating a robust and stable trend is an important challenge for economic analysis. We compare alternative approaches by estimating the cyclical component for the real exchange rate series of Turkey. Comparison criteria is the sensitivity of the estimated cycle to additional data points. A formal test reveals that cycle values obtained with all methods change substantially upon new data arrivals. To rank the performance of the methods, additional measures underlining the comovement of real-time cycles and the cyclical values with additional data, and the magnitude of end-point bias are developed. These criteria show that an unobserved components approach, which assumes trend and cycle innovations are orthogonal, and fixes the share of trend shocks on the real depreciation rate fluctuations at 10 percent, dominates alternative filtering methods.

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Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 1316.

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Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1316
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  1. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
  2. Aikman, David & Nelson, Benjamin & Tanaka, Misa, 2012. "Reputation, risk-taking and macroprudential policy," Bank of England working papers 462, Bank of England.
  3. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Yavuz Arslan & Evren Ceritoglu, 2011. "Quality Growth versus Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 1121, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  5. M. Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013. "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Working Papers 1316, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  6. Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.
  7. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
  8. Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun & Mahmut Gunay & Bahar Sen-Dogan, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization of Turkey with Euro Area and the US : What Has Changed After 2001?," Working Papers 1215, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  9. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  10. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  11. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
  13. Hulya Saygili & Mesut Saygili & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2010. "Turkiye icin Yeni Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Endeksleri," Working Papers 1012, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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