End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey
Estimating a robust and stable trend is an important challenge for economic analysis. We compare alternative approaches by estimating the cyclical component for the real exchange rate series of Turkey. Comparison criteria is the sensitivity of the estimated cycle to additional data points. A formal test reveals that cycle values obtained with all methods change substantially upon new data arrivals. To rank the performance of the methods, additional measures underlining the comovement of real-time cycles and the cyclical values with additional data, and the magnitude of end-point bias are developed. These criteria show that an unobserved components approach, which assumes trend and cycle innovations are orthogonal, and fixes the share of trend shocks on the real depreciation rate fluctuations at 10 percent, dominates alternative filtering methods.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (90 312) 507 5000
Fax: (90 312) 507 5640
Web page: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
- Aikman, David & Nelson, Benjamin & Tanaka, Misa, 2012.
"Reputation, risk-taking and macroprudential policy,"
Bank of England working papers
462, Bank of England.
- Aikman, David & Nelson, Benjamin & Tanaka, Misa, 2015. "Reputation, risk-taking, and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 428-439.
- Canova, Fabio, 1993.
"Detrending and Business Cycle Facts,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yavuz Arslan & Evren Ceritoglu, 2011.
"Quality Growth versus Inflation in Turkey,"
1121, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- M. Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013.
"End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey,"
1316, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013. "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions: An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(3), pages 61-71.
- Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Huseyin Cagri Akkoyun & Mahmut Gunay & Bahar Sen-Dogan, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization of Turkey with Euro Area and the US : What Has Changed After 2001?," Working Papers 1215, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
- Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
- MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
- Hulya Saygili & Mesut Saygili & Gokhan Yilmaz, 2010. "Turkiye icin Yeni Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Endeksleri," Working Papers 1012, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ozlem Ekmekciler Ramalho Rocha)or (Ilker Cakar)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.