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Mauricio Ulate

Citations

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Working papers

  1. Mauricio Ulate & Jose P Vasquez & Roman D. Zarate, 2025. "Labor market effects of global supply chain disruptions," CEP Discussion Papers dp2078, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2025. "The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy," Working Paper Series 2025-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Di, Junpeng & Li, Wanhe & Zhang, Mingyuan, 2025. "Impact of corporate employment: Minimum wage or social insurance policy? Evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. José Pulido, 2024. "Domestic Effects of the Pandemic-Induced Container Freight Disruption in a Globalized World," Borradores de Economia 1288, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Kaczmarek, Tomasz & Demir, Ender & Rouatbi, Wael & Zaremba, Adam, 2025. "Tariffs announcement as a global stress test: Early stock market reactions to U.S. protectionism," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).

  2. Andres Rodriguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P Vasquez, 2025. "The 2025 trade war: Dynamic impacts across US States and the global economy," CEP Discussion Papers dp2103, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Cited by:

    1. Oana Ramona Guriţă & Grațiela Georgiana Noja & Badar Alam Iqbal, 2025. "Editorial: Regional partnerships and strategic cooperation in times of crisis," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 16, pages 5-13, November.
    2. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang, 2025. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-Level Evidence from "Liberation Day"," CESifo Working Paper Series 12285, CESifo.
    3. Jettawat Pattararangrong & Wisarut Suwanprasert, 2025. "Fast and Furious: Daily Export Responses to the Liberation Day Tariff Shock," PIER Discussion Papers 244, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Mar 2026.
    4. Hongyan Zhao, 2025. "Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of the 2025 US tariffs," BIS Working Papers 1316, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Kalina Manova & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Aaron Tang, 2026. "Tariff confusion," CEP Discussion Papers dp2195, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Caroline M. Paulson & Aditi Poduri & Aayush Singh & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(16), pages 1-5, July.
    7. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Hinz, Julian & Krantz, Sebastian & Mahlkow, Hendrik & Wanner, Joschka, 2025. "Tariffs hit differently: The regional impact of US tariffs across Europe and the role of the single market," Kiel Working Papers 2309, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    8. Eduardo D‡vila & AndrŽs Rodr’guez-Clare & Andreas Schaab & Stacy Tan, 2025. "A Dynamic Theory of Optimal Tariffs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2444, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Dora Xia & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2025. "Macroeconomic impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty," BIS Bulletins 110, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Régis Barnichon & Aayush Singh, 2026. "What Can History Tell Us About Tariff Shocks?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(01), pages 1-5, January.
    11. Ignatenko, Anna & Lashkaripour, Ahmad & Macedoni, Luca & Simonovska, Ina, 2025. "Making America great again? The economic impacts of Liberation Day tariffs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. André Kurmann & Étienne Lalé & Julien Martin, 2026. "When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada’s 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Labor Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2026s-01, CIRANO.
    13. Pau Pujolas & Jack Rossbach, 2026. "Fiscal Limits to Protectionism: The 2025 U.S. Tariff Laffer Curve," Papers 2602.18938, arXiv.org.
    14. Anastasiia Antonova & Luis Huxel & Mykhailo Matvieiev & Gernot J. Muller, 2025. "The Propagation of Tariff Shocks via Production Networks," CESifo Working Paper Series 11917, CESifo.
    15. Kapar, Burcu & Buigut, Steven & Billah, Syed Mabruk, 2025. "The short-term reaction of financial markets to the U.S. trade tariff announcement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).

  3. Andres Rodriguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P Vasquez, 2025. "Trade with nominal rigidities: Understanding the unemployment and welfare effects of the China shock," CEP Discussion Papers dp2088, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Cited by:

    1. Galle, Simon & Lorentzen, Linnea, 2024. "The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Joao Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2021. "Globalization, trade imbalances and labor market adjustment," CEP Discussion Papers dp1754, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Esposito, Federico & Hassan, Fadi, 2023. "Import competition, trade credit and financial frictions in general equilibrium," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121378, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2025. "The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy," Working Paper Series 2025-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Auray, Stéphane & Devereux, Michael B. & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2025. "Trade wars and the optimal design of monetary rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Ravikumar, B. & Santacreu, Ana Maria & Sposi, Michael, 2024. "Trade liberalization versus protectionism: Dynamic welfare asymmetries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    7. Italo Colantone & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Tom Schmitz, 2024. "Regional and aggregate economic consequences of environmental policy," CEP Discussion Papers dp2016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2023. "Supply Chain Disruptions, Trade Costs, and Labor Markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(02), pages 1-5, January.
    9. Dinopoulos, Elias & Heins, Gunnar & Unel, Bulent, 2024. "Tariff wars, unemployment, and top incomes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    10. Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon H., 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 14804, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Ralph Ossa & Stephen J. Redding, 2026. "The economics of tariffs," CEP Discussion Papers dp2155, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2025. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2537, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    13. Komarek, Timothy M. & Butts, Kyle & Wagner, Gary A., 2022. "Government Contracting, Labor Intensity, and the Local Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Stephen J. Redding, 2020. "Trade and geography," CEP Discussion Papers dp1718, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Colantone, Italo & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. & Takeda, Kohei, 2024. "Trade and intergenerational income mobility: theory and evidence from the US," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Ana Maria Santacreu & Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang, 2023. "What Determines State Heterogeneity in Response to U.S. Tariff Changes," Working Paper Series WP 2023-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    17. Leonard Bocquet, 2022. "The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation," Working Papers halshs-03703862, HAL.
    18. Wen-Tai Hsu & Hsuan-Chih (Luke) Lin & Han Yang, 2024. "Long-run belief-scarring effects of COVID-19 in a global economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(3), pages 709-752, November.
    19. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," IZA Discussion Papers 14914, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Rodrigo Adão & Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & John Sturm, 2024. "Why is Trade Not Free? A Revealed Preference Approach," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 089, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    21. Tom Schmitz & Italo Colantone & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2024. "Regional and Aggregate Economic Consequences of Environmental Policy Abstract: This paper shows how to combine microeconometric evidence on the effects of environmental policy with a macroeconomic model, accounting for general equilibrium spillovers ," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24225, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    22. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Mileva, Mariya, 2024. "Trade liberalization, wage inequality, and monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    23. Pedro Dias Moreira & João Monteiro, 2023. "The Impact of a Higher Cost of Credit on Exporters: Evidence from a Change in Banking Regulation," Working Papers w202320, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    24. Bonilla, Leonardo & Munoz-Morales, Juan & Zarate, Roman, 2026. "Complements or Substitutes? Labor Market Effects of Foreign Inputs in Developing Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 18558, IZA Network @ LISER.
    25. Shekhar Aiyar & Simon Voigts, 2025. "The Negative Mean Output Gap and the Symmetry Bias of Statistical Filters," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(4), pages 1365-1397, December.

  4. Pascal Paul & Mauricio Ulate & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2025. "A Macroeconomic Model of Central Bank Digital Currency," Working Paper Series 2024-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Wan, Jieru & Yin, Libo & Wu, You & Wu, Lei, 2026. "Time-frequency return and volatility spillovers among CBDC uncertainty, cryptocurrency uncertainty, and ESG stock indexes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    2. Bird, Daniel & Weiss, David, 2026. "Central bank digital currency: When price and bank stability (Don’t) collide," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Abad, Jorge & Nuño, Galo & Thomas, Carlos, 2025. "CBDC and the operational framework of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

  5. Anton E. Bobrov & Rupal Kamdar & Mauricio Ulate, 2024. "Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?," Working Paper Series 2024-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Cody Couture, 2026. "Vacancies on the FOMC," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 92(4), pages 897-914, April.
    2. Sophia Kazinnik & Tara M. Sinclair, 2025. "FOMC In Silico: A Multi-Agent System for Monetary Policy Decision Modeling," Working Papers 2025-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    3. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2025. "Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications," Working papers 1001, Banque de France.
    4. Donato Masciandaro, 2026. "Monetary Policy and Taylor Reaction Functions: Business Cycles, Central Bank Governance and Central Bankers’ Preferences," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 26270, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

  6. Simon H. Kwan & Mauricio Ulate & Ville Voutilainen, 2023. "The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland," Working Paper Series 2023-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Fungáécová, Zuzana & Kerola, Eeva & Laine, Olli-Matti, 2023. "Monetary policy transmission below zero," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2023, Bank of Finland.
    2. Jan Lukas Schäfer, 2026. "Transmission of Negative Interest Rates: Reversal or Amplification?," Working Papers wp2026_2606, CEMFI.
    3. Bonfim, Diana & Moretti, Laura & Auer, Simone & Bandoni, Emil & Briglevics, Tamás & Ferrando, Annalisa & De Jonghe, Olivier & Kho, Stephen & Mendicino, Caterina & Rodriguez-Moreno, Maria & S. Moura, A, 2026. "Monetary policy transmission through the financial system to households," Occasional Paper Series 390, European Central Bank.

  7. Cynthia Balloch & Yann Koby & Mauricio Ulate, 2022. "Making Sense of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2022-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Fungáécová, Zuzana & Kerola, Eeva & Laine, Olli-Matti, 2023. "Monetary policy transmission below zero," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2023, Bank of Finland.
    2. Kwan, Simon H. & Ulate, Mauricio & Voutilainen, Ville, 2023. "The transmission of negative nominal interest rates in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2023, Bank of Finland.
    3. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Onofri, Marco & Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2023. "The effectiveness of a negative interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 16-33.
    5. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    6. Andreeva, Desislava & Coman, Andra & Everett, Mary & Froemel, Maren & Ho, Kelvin & Lloyd, Simon & Meunier, Baptiste & Pedrono, Justine & Reinhardt, Dennis & Wong, Andrew & Wong, Eric & Żochowski, Dawi, 2025. "Negative rates, monetary policy transmission and cross-border lending via international financial centers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Bats, Joost V. & Giuliodori, Massimo & Houben, Aerdt C.F.J., 2023. "Monetary policy effects in times of negative interest rates: What do bank stock prices tell us?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Berentsen, Aleksander & van Buggenum, Hugo & Ruprecht, Romina, 2025. "On the negatives of negative interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    9. Fuster, Andreas & Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2024. "Tiers of joy? Reserve tiering and bank behavior in a negative-rate environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    10. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2023. "The signalling channel of negative interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 87-103.
    11. Grandi, Pietro & Guille, Marianne, 2023. "Banks, deposit rigidity and negative rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

  8. Andres Rodriguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2020. "New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks," Working Paper Series 2020-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Pessoa, João Paulo & Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo & Traiberman, Sharon, 2021. "Globalization, trade imbalances and labor market adjustment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114424, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Daniel Lind, 2022. "The China Effect on Manufacturing Productivity in the United States and Other High-income Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 42, pages 33-62, Spring.
    3. Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon H., 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 14804, IZA Network @ LISER.
    4. Jackson, Laura E. & Kurt, Ezgi, 2025. "Downward wage rigidity and asymmetric effects of monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Fadinger, Harald & Herkenhoff, Philipp & Schymik, Jan, 2024. "Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Kim, Dongin & Steinbach, Sandro & Zurita, Carlos, 2024. "Deep trade agreements and agri-food global value chain integration," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," IZA Discussion Papers 14914, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Andreas M. Fischer & Philipp Herkenhoff & Philip Sauré, 2023. "Identifying Chinese supply shocks: Effects of trade on labor markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1476-1507, September.
    9. Attinasi, M.-G. & Boeckelmann, L. & de Castro Martins, B. & Meunier, B. & Borin, A. & Conteduca, F.P. & Mancini, M., 2025. "Supply chain decoupling in green products: A granular input-output analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Jose Pulido, 2022. "Pandemic-induced increases in container freight rates: Assessing their domestic effects in a globalized world," IHEID Working Papers 24-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    11. Fadinger, Harald & Herkenhoff, Philipp & Schymik, Jan, 2024. "Reprint of: Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

  9. Mauricio Ulate, 2020. "Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory," Working Paper Series 2020-31, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Bussiere & Tommaso Gasparini & Guillaume Horny & Benoit Nguyen, 2025. "Deposit Funding and the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Working papers 1029, Banque de France.
    2. Serdavaa, Batkhurel, 2025. "Cross-country panel analysis justifying tighter control over short-term interest rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    3. Altavilla, Carlo & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Quaedvlieg, Rogier, 2024. "Macro and micro of external finance premium and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(S).
    4. Kwan, Simon H. & Ulate, Mauricio & Voutilainen, Ville, 2023. "The transmission of negative nominal interest rates in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2023, Bank of Finland.
    5. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    6. Mattia Girotti & Guillaume Horny & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2022. "Lost in Negative Territory? Search for Yield!," Working papers 877, Banque de France.
    7. Oliver de Groot & Alexander Haas, 2021. "The signalling channel of negative interest rates," Economics Series Working Papers 956 JEL classification: E, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2022. "Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 885-907.
    9. Rafael Repullo, 2020. "The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy. A Critical Review," Working Papers wp2020_2025, CEMFI.
    10. Yang, Yuanyuan & Liu, Yuxin & Yin, Lei & Wang, Jianjun, 2024. "Does macro-prudential regulation lead to low interest rate? An empirical analysis based on the transnational panel model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

  10. Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 2019-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Cited by:

    1. Edoardo Rainone, 2022. "Currency demand at negative policy rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1359, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2022. "What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Marco Onofri & Gert Peersman & Frank R. Smets, 2021. "The Effectiveness Of A Negative Interest Rate Policy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1015, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Boungou, Whelsy & Hubert, Paul, 2021. "The channels of banks’ response to negative interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    5. Anthony Brassil, 2022. "The Consequences of Low Interest Rates for the Australian Banking Sector," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2022-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Ulbing, Philipp, 2024. "The Zero Lower Bound on Household Deposit Rates: Not As Binding As We Thought," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302353, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2022. "The Mayekawa Lecture: Institutional Innovation and Central Bank Independence 2.0," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 40, pages 25-38, November.
    8. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 26002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Xiao-Li Gong & Jin-Yan Lu & Xiong Xiong & Wei Zhang, 2025. "Liquidity constraints, real estate regulation, and local government debt risks," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, December.
    10. Koenig, Philipp J. & Schliephake, Eva, 2022. "Bank risk-taking and impaired monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2638, European Central Bank.
    11. Marco Rojas, 2022. "Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies and the International Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 966, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Grochola, Nicolaus, 2023. "The influence of negative interest rates on life insurance companies," ICIR Working Paper Series 53/23, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    13. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of reinvestments in asset purchase programmes," Discussion Papers 47/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Serdavaa, Batkhurel, 2025. "Cross-country panel analysis justifying tighter control over short-term interest rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    15. Grahame Johnson & Sharon Kozicki & Romanos Priftis & Lena Suchanek & Jonathan Witmer & Jing Yang, 2020. "Implementation and Effectiveness of Extended Monetary Policy Tools: Lessons from the Literature," Discussion Papers 2020-16, Bank of Canada.
    16. Fungáécová, Zuzana & Kerola, Eeva & Laine, Olli-Matti, 2023. "Monetary policy transmission below zero," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2023, Bank of Finland.
    17. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Thomas B. King & Anna Orlik & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2020. "Issues Regarding the Use of the Policy Rate Tool," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2025. "Banks in an environment of higher interest rates," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 6(4).
    19. Kho, Stephen, 2024. "Deposit market concentration and monetary transmission: evidence from the euro area," Working Paper Series 2896, European Central Bank.
    20. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    21. Rong Li & Dongzhou Mei & Bing Tong, 2024. "Gradual Portfolio Adjustment, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Open Market Operations," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2024/6, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    22. Jia, Pengfei, 2020. "Negative Interest Rates on Central Bank Digital Currency," MPRA Paper 103828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Laine, Olli-Matti & Pihlajamaa, Matias, 2024. "Pushing and pulling on a string? Inflationary effects of expansionary and contractionary monetary policies when rates are negative," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    24. Jan Kakes & Anna Samarina, 2026. "The anatomy of transmission: pass-through of market rates to bank deposit rates in the euro area," Working Papers 865, DNB.
    25. Hashmi, Aamir Rafique & Nsafoah, Dennis, 2024. "International spillovers of conventional versus new monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    26. Böhl, Gregor, 2022. "Endogenous Money, Excess Reserves and Unconventional Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264141, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    27. Olivia Lofton & Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "How Do Low and Negative Interest Rates Affect Banks?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(23), pages 01-05, August.
    28. Isabel Gödl-Hanisch, 2023. "Bank Concentration and Monetary Policy Pass-Through," CESifo Working Paper Series 10378, CESifo.
    29. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Kok, Christoffer & Rottner, Matthias, 2023. "Reversal interest rate and macroprudential policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    30. Aleksander Berentsen & Hugo van Buggenum & Romina Ruprecht, 2020. "On the negatives of negative interest rates and the positives of exemption thresholds," ECON - Working Papers 372, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    31. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Schumacher, Julian, 2022. "Money markets and bank lending: evidence from the adoption of tiering," Working Paper Series 2649, European Central Bank.
    32. Jan Lukas Schäfer, 2026. "Transmission of Negative Interest Rates: Reversal or Amplification?," Working Papers wp2026_2606, CEMFI.
    33. Harald Badinger & Stefan Schiman, 2023. "Measuring Monetary Policy in the Euro Area Using SVARs with Residual Restrictions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 279-305, April.
    34. Xin, Baogui & Jiang, Kai & Santibanez Gonzalez, Ernesto D.R., 2024. "The coevolution effect of central bank digital currency and green bonds on the net-zero economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    35. Heider, Florian & Saidi, Farzad & Schepens, Glenn, 2021. "Banks and negative interest rates," Working Paper Series 2549, European Central Bank.
    36. Tsutomu Watanabe, 2021. "The Welfare Implications of Massive Money Injection: The Japanese Experience from 2013 to 2020," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 224-242, July.
    37. Jin Cao & Pierre Dubuis & Karolis Liaudinskas, 2025. "Relationship lending and monetary policy pass-through," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1123, Bank of England.
    38. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    39. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    40. Matěj Kuc & Petr Teplý, 2023. "Are European commercial banks more profitable than cooperative banks? Evidence from a low interest rate environment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4385-4400, October.
    41. Mattia Girotti & Guillaume Horny & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2022. "Lost in Negative Territory? Search for Yield!," Working papers 877, Banque de France.
    42. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2024. "Unconventional policies in state-dependent liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    43. Kim, Duhyeong, 2025. "Negative nominal interest rates and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    44. Koenig, Philipp J. & Schliephake, Eva, 2021. "Bank risk-taking and impaired monetarypolicy transmission," Discussion Papers 42/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    45. Nicolas Reigl & Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Negative Interest Rates in the Five Eurozone Countries from Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 24-30, April.
    46. Lorenz Driussi, 2025. "The Zero Lower Bound on Deposit Rates, Monetary Policy and Bank Insolvency Risk," Working Papers 25.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    47. Heider, Florian & Leonello, Agnese, 2021. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Reversal Rate and Risk-Taking," Working Paper Series 2593, European Central Bank.
    48. Ampudia, Miguel & Van den Heuvel, Skander J., 2022. "Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 49-67.
    49. Present, Thomas & Simoens, Mathieu & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2023. "European bank margins at the zero lower bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    50. Zheng Liu & Mark M. Spiegel & Jingyi Zhang, 2023. "Targeted Reserve Requirements for Macroeconomic Stabilization," Working Paper Series 2023-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    51. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    52. Mark M. Spiegel, 2025. "The Bank Lending Channel Is Back," Working Paper Series 2025-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    53. Eric R. Sims & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2019. "Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 26040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Isabel Gödl-Hanisch & Jordan Pandolfo, 2025. "Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Income Source," CESifo Working Paper Series 11847, CESifo.
    55. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2022. "Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 885-907.
    56. Christian Bittner & Alexander Rodnyansky & Farzad Saidi & Yannick Timmer, 2024. "Mixing QE and Interest Rate Policies at the Effective Lower Bound: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_552, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    57. Christian Eufinger & Andrej Gill & Florian Hett, 2024. "Domestic financial conditions and MNCs’ global competitiveness: evidence from the Swiss franc shock," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 55(8), pages 1057-1068, October.
    58. Mark M. Spiegel, 2021. "Monetary Policy Spillovers Under Covid-19: Evidence from U.S. Foreign Bank Subsidiaries," Working Paper Series 2021-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    59. Dirk Niepelt, 2022. "Money and Banking with Reserves and CBDC," Diskussionsschriften dp2212, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    60. Hua, Qiuling & Qiu, Zepeng & Jiang, Tingfeng & Tang, Ke, 2025. "Macroeconomic effects of CBDC negative interest policy in an open economy: A comparison of quantity and price rules," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    61. Christian Moser & Farzad Saidi & Benjamin Wirth & Stefanie Wolter, 2021. "Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 086, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    62. Dávila, Julio & Lukmanova, Elizaveta, 2025. "Negative nominal rates," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    63. Paula Morales-Bañuelos & Guillermo Fernández-Anaya, 2023. "Default Probabilities and the Credit Spread of Mexican Companies: The Modified Merton Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-30, October.
    64. Jung, Yong-Gook & Kim, Jinyong, 2023. "Banks’ net interest rate spread and the transmission of monetary policy in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    65. Shunsuke Haba & Yuichiro Ito & Yoshiyasu Kasai, 2025. "The Impact of Negative Interest Rate Policy on Interest Rate Formation and Lending," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 25-E-1, Bank of Japan.
    66. Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary policy spillovers under COVID-19: Evidence from lending by U.S. foreign bank subsidiaries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    67. Demiralp, Selva & Eisenschmidt, Jens & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Negative interest rates, excess liquidity and retail deposits: Banks’ reaction to unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    68. Sarto, Andrés & Wang, Olivier, 2026. "The secular decline in interest rates and the rise of shadow banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    69. Kumhof, Michael & Wang, Xuan, 2021. "Banks, money, and the zero lower bound on deposit rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    70. Volha Audzei & Michal Franta, 2026. "International Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy to Advanced Small Open Economies: Investment Behavior of Czech Firms," Working Papers 2026/05, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    71. Berentsen, Aleksander & van Buggenum, Hugo & Ruprecht, Romina, 2025. "On the negatives of negative interest rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    72. Fuster, Andreas & Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2024. "Tiers of joy? Reserve tiering and bank behavior in a negative-rate environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    73. Kho, Stephen, 2025. "Deposit market concentration and monetary transmission: Evidence from the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    74. Christian Bittner & Diana Bonfim & Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens & Carla Soares, 2022. "The Augmented Bank Balance-Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 149, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    75. Ling Wang, 2025. "Bank financing for SMEs in times of crisis: when “whatever-it-takes” confronts “black swans”," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 777-812, August.
    76. Freriks, Jorien & Kakes, Jan, 2024. "Lessons from low interest rate policy: How did euro area banks respond?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    77. Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 3-34, March.
    78. Luis Brandao-Marques & Marco Casiraghi & Gaston Gelos & Gunes Kamber & Roland Meeks, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policies: Taking Stock of the Experience So Far," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(06), pages 27-32, November.
    79. de Groot, Oliver & Haas, Alexander, 2023. "The signalling channel of negative interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 87-103.
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    82. Coulier, Lara & Pancaro, Cosimo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2024. "Are low interest rates firing back? Interest rate risk in the banking book and bank lending in a rising interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2950, European Central Bank.
    83. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    84. Xin, Baogui & Jiang, Kai, 2023. "Central bank digital currency and the effectiveness of negative interest rate policy: A DSGE analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    85. Ruopu Hu & Andreas Schabert, 2026. "Bank Regulation and Post-2008 US Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 397, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    86. Enkhbold, Amina, 2026. "Monetary policy transmission, bank market power, and wholesale funding reliance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

  11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures," NBER Working Papers 25511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Artem Vdovychenko, 2022. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 21-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    3. Álvarez, Luis J. & Correa-López, Mónica, 2020. "Inflation expectations in euro area Phillips curves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2020. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage-Price Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 27663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Jonathan Garita-Garita & Catalina Sandoval-Alvarado, 2023. "Estimating Labor Market Slackness in Costa Rica," Documentos de Trabajo 2302, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    6. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn & Lansing, Kevin J., 2025. "Anchored inflation expectations and the slope of the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    7. Jean-Louis Combes & Pierre Lesuisse, 2021. "Inflation and Unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," Working Papers hal-03216478, HAL.
    8. Divino, Jose Angelo & da Silva, Adriana Gomes, 2024. "Cash transfers and the Phillips curve: The case of Brazil during the pandemic," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 680-688.
    9. Eser, Fabian & Lane, Philip & Moretti, Laura & Osbat, Chiara & Karadi, Peter, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224627, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    11. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2023. "Monetary policy and the wage inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    13. Shovon Sengupta & Sunny Kumar Singh & Tanujit Chakraborty, 2025. "Macroeconomic Forecasting for the G7 countries under Uncertainty Shocks," Papers 2510.23347, arXiv.org.
    14. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    15. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Ortmans, Aymeric & Tripier, Fabien, 2022. "The Risk of Inflation Dispersion in the Euro Area," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2212, CEPREMAP.
    16. Domenico Depalo & Salvatore Lo Bello, 2024. "Accounting for the recent inflation burst in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 871, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Elías Albagli & Francesco Grigoli & Emiliano Luttini, 2025. "Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(3), pages 819-850, September.
    18. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    19. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2019. "Thoughts on a review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03403251, HAL.

  12. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Ulate, Mauricio, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0r16570h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.

    Cited by:

    1. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Working Paper Series 2714, European Central Bank.
    2. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    3. Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez, 2023. "Estimation of Hodrick-Prescott Filter’s Smoothing Parameter for Costa Rica," Notas Técnicas 2301, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Hoffmann, Timo, 2023. "Vorschläge zur Modifikation der Potenzialschätzung der Bundesregierung im Vergleich," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 45, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Breuer Sebastian & Elstner Steffen, 2020. "Germany’s Growth Prospects against the Backdrop of Demographic Change," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 240(5), pages 565-605, October.
    6. N. Cordemans & J. Wauters, 2018. "Are inflation and economic activity out of sync in the euro area?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue i, pages 79-96, June.
    7. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Arabinda Basistha, 2026. "The Role of Global Inflation in Estimation of US Output Components in the post Bretton Woods Era: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models," Working Papers 26-04, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    9. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2020. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," Papers 2006.14110, arXiv.org.
    10. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2020. "Asymmetric macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation in the OECD and the Euro Area," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    11. Larch, Martin & Cugnasca, Alessandro & Kumps, Diederik & Orseau, Eloïse, 2019. "Fiscal policy and the assessment of output gaps in real time: An exercise in risk management," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-013, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Pål Ulvedal, 2021. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.
    15. Pablo Burriel & Víctor González-Díez & Jorge Martínez-Pagés & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2021. "Real-time analysis of the revisions to the structural position of public finances," Occasional Papers 2108, Banco de España.
    16. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2019. "An Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Baltic States," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    17. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Gabor Katay & Lisa Kerdelhué & Matthieu Lequien, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2020-11, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    19. Bušs, Ginters & Grüning, Patrick & Tkačevs, Oļegs, 2022. "Choosing the European Fiscal Rule," Dynare Working Papers 75, CEPREMAP.
    20. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2019. "Central bank losses and monetary policy rules: A DSGE investigation," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 61, pages 289-303.
    21. Geert Mesters & Régis Barnichon, 2019. "Identifying Modern Macro Equations with Old Shocks," Working Papers 1097, Barcelona School of Economics.
    22. Peter Flaschel & Sigrid Luchtenberg & Hagen Kramer & Christian Proano & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "Contemporary Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Tragedy in Three Acts," Working Papers 2105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    23. Galí, Jordi, 2020. "Insider-Outsider Labor Markets, Hysteresis and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14886, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    24. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I extract the output gap?," Working Paper Series 386, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    25. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    26. Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2019. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2019, Bank of Finland.
    27. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2020. "Recessions and the Trend in the US Unemployment Rate," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(01), pages 1-8, February.
    28. Ichiro Fukunaga & Yoshihiko Hogen & Yojiro Ito & Kenji Kanai & Satoshi Tsuchida, 2024. "Potential Growth in Japan: Issues on Its Relationship with Prices and Wages," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-16, Bank of Japan.
    29. Weiske, Sebastian, 2018. "Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area," Working Papers 12/2018, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    30. Iana Paliova, 2021. "Bulgaria’s Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 9(1), pages 31-38, June.
    31. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
    32. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Michele Capriati, 2024. "Government spending, multipliers, and public debt sustainability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 521-542, July.
    33. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2020. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2401, European Central Bank.
    34. Marek Jarociński & Michele Lenza, 2018. "An Inflation‐Predicting Measure of the Output Gap in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1224, September.
    35. Antonio Fatás, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Potential Output, and the Shifting Goalposts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 684-702, September.
    36. Vinci, Francesca & Licandro, Omar, 2021. "Switching-track after the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2596, European Central Bank.
    37. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E. & Warnock, Veronica Cacdac, 2022. "A natural level of capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 1-16.
    38. Eva Ortega & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Papers 2016, Banco de España.
    39. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Some Thoughts and Proposals Concerning the Concept of Output Gap [Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap]," Post-Print hal-02335667, HAL.
    40. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
    41. Andrew Glover & José Mustre-del-Río & Emily Pollard, 2021. "KC Fed LMCI Suggests Recent Inflation Is Not Due to the Tight Labor Market," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue October 2, pages 1-4, October.
    42. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures," NBER Working Papers 25511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Monetary policy with transitory vs. permanently low growth," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03404318, HAL.
    44. Jonas Dovern & Christopher Zuber, 2020. "Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(4), pages 1431-1466, October.
    45. Remzi Baris Tercioglu, 2020. "A sectoral approach to measuring output gap: Evidence from 20 US sectors over 1948-2019," Working Papers 2012, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2021.
    46. Durand, Luigi & Fornero, Jorge Alberto, 2024. "Estimating the output gap in times of COVID-19," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(4).
    47. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1583-1595.
    48. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    49. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
    50. Sarah Fischer & Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Philipp Wegmüller, 2024. "Assessing the Potential Output for Switzerland: Determinants, Trends and Drivers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(2), pages 297-338, July.
    51. Tóth, Máté, 2021. "A multivariate unobserved components model to estimate potential output in the euro area: a production function based approach," Working Paper Series 2523, European Central Bank.
    52. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    53. Arai, Natsuki, 2020. "Investigating the inefficiency of the CBO’s budgetary projections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1290-1300.
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    55. Arai, Natsuki, 2023. "The FOMC’s new individual economic projections and macroeconomic theories," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    56. Müller, Gernot & Wolf, Martin & Hettig, Thomas, 2019. "Exchange Rate Undershooting: Evidence and Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 13597, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    57. Bhattarai, Saroj & Schwartzman, Felipe & Yang, Choongryul, 2021. "Local scars of the US housing crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 40-57.
    58. Augustus J. Panton, 2020. "Climate Hysteresis and Monetary Policy," CAMA Working Papers 2020-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    73. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    74. Antonio Fatás & Sanjay R. Singh, 2022. "Supply or Demand? Policy Makers' Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis," Working Papers 347, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    75. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2022. "Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    76. Omar Licandro & Francesca Vinci, 2021. "Potential output, the Taylor Rule and the Fed," Discussion Papers 2021/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    77. Arčabić, Vladimir & Panovska, Irina & Tica, Josip, 2024. "Business cycle synchronization and asymmetry in the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    78. Saroj Bhattarai & Felipe Schwartzman & Choongryul Yang, 2019. "The Persistent Employment Effects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse," Working Paper 19-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    79. Weiske, Sebastian, 2019. "Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203604, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    80. Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez, 2024. "Measuring the Unmeasurable: Unraveling the complexities of real-time output gap estimation," Borradores de Economia 1284, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    81. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov & Hunter Wieman, 2023. "Sparse Trend Estimation," Staff Reports 1049, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    82. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2024. "Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(2), pages 363-382.
    83. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
    84. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Policy Options and the Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Working Papers 01/2017, National Bank of Ukraine.
    85. Mario Alloza & Jesus Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2020. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," Papers 2006.14047, arXiv.org.
    86. Daniel Gros & Alessandro Liscai & Farzaneh Shamsfakhr, 2022. "Planned Fiscal Consolidation and Under-Estimated Multipliers: Revisiting the Evidence and Relevance for the Euro Area," EconPol Policy Reports 35, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    87. Garabedian, Garo, 2025. "Star-struck; Monetary Policy and the Neutral Rate," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    88. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    89. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    90. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, January.
    91. Thomas Lustenberger, 2018. "Has the American Output Growth Path Experienced a Permanent Change?," Working Papers 2018-14, Swiss National Bank.
    92. Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Domenico, Lorenzo, 2024. "Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1186-1209.
    93. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.
    94. Jean-Marc Fournier & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2020. "A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance," IMF Working Papers 2020/033, International Monetary Fund.

  13. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Policy Options and the Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Working Papers 01/2017, National Bank of Ukraine.

    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez, 2023. "Estimation of Hodrick-Prescott Filter’s Smoothing Parameter for Costa Rica," Notas Técnicas 2301, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    2. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2019. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2019, Bank of Finland.
    4. Iana Paliova, 2021. "Bulgaria’s Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 9(1), pages 31-38, June.
    5. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Michele Capriati, 2024. "Government spending, multipliers, and public debt sustainability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 521-542, July.
    6. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2020. "Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2401, European Central Bank.
    7. Antonio Fatás, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Potential Output, and the Shifting Goalposts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 684-702, September.
    8. Vinci, Francesca & Licandro, Omar, 2021. "Switching-track after the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2596, European Central Bank.
    9. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2018. "Some Thoughts and Proposals Concerning the Concept of Output Gap [Réflexions et suggestions autour du concept d’output gap]," Post-Print hal-02335667, HAL.
    10. Croushore, Dean & van Norden, Simon, 2019. "Fiscal Surprises at the FOMC," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1583-1595.
    11. Bhattarai, Saroj & Schwartzman, Felipe & Yang, Choongryul, 2021. "Local scars of the US housing crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 40-57.
    12. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski & Philipp Wegmüller, 2026. "Estimating a weighted output gap for Switzerland: methodology and application," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 162(1), pages 1-25, December.
    13. Jing Lian Suah, 2024. "The "plucking" model of the unemployment rate floor: Corss-country estimates and empirics," BIS Working Papers 1159, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2023. "The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(10), pages 2073-2086, October.
    15. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2022. "Euro area banking and monetary policy shocks in the QE era," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Omar Licandro & Francesca Vinci, 2021. "Potential output, the Taylor Rule and the Fed," Discussion Papers 2021/03, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    18. Saroj Bhattarai & Felipe Schwartzman & Choongryul Yang, 2019. "The Persistent Employment Effects of the 2006-09 U.S. Housing Wealth Collapse," Working Paper 19-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    19. Karen L. Pulido-Mahecha & Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez, 2024. "Measuring the Unmeasurable: Unraveling the complexities of real-time output gap estimation," Borradores de Economia 1284, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2024. "Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(2), pages 363-382.
    21. Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Domenico, Lorenzo, 2024. "Fiscal policy and public debt: Government investment is most effective to promote sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1186-1209.

Articles

  1. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & José P. Vásquez, 2026. "Trade with Nominal Rigidities: Understanding the Unemployment and Welfare Effects of the China Shock," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 134(2), pages 626-664.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Caroline M. Paulson & Aditi Poduri & Aayush Singh & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(16), pages 1-5, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Naomi Halbersleben & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2025. "The Economic Effects of Tariffs," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(29), pages 1-6, November.

  3. Anton Bobrov & Rupal Kamdar & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 268-284, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Ulate, Mauricio & Vasquez, Jose P. & Zarate, Roman D., 2025. "Labor market effects of global supply chain disruptions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Anton E. Bobrov & Rupal Kamdar & Caroline M. Paulson & Aditi Poduri & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(13), pages 1-5, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Sophia Kazinnik & Tara M. Sinclair, 2025. "FOMC In Silico: A Multi-Agent System for Monetary Policy Decision Modeling," Working Papers 2025-005, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.

  6. Simon Kwan & Mauricio Ulate & Ville Voutilainen, 2025. "The Transmission of Negative Nominal Interest Rates in Finland," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 23(5), pages 1809-1837.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2023. "Supply Chain Disruptions, Trade Costs, and Labor Markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(02), pages 1-5, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Caroline M. Paulson & Aditi Poduri & Aayush Singh & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(16), pages 1-5, July.
    2. Brent Meyer & Brian Prescott & Xuguang Sheng, 2023. "The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions on Business Expectations during the Pandemic," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

  8. Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "Alternative Models of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Normal and Negative Territory," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(1), pages 3-34, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 1-40, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 465-469, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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