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Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?

Author

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  • Anton Bobrov
  • Rupal Kamdar
  • Mauricio Ulate

Abstract

US monetary policy decisions are made by the 12 voting members of the FOMC, seven of which inherently represent national-level interests. The remaining members, a rotating group of presidents from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, come instead from subnational jurisdictions. Does this structure have implications for the monetary policymaking process? We provide novel evidence that regional economic conditions influence the voting behavior of district presidents. Specifically, a regional unemployment rate that is 1 percentage point higher than the national level is associated with an approximately 9 percentage point higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy at the FOMC.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Bobrov & Rupal Kamdar & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "Regional Dissent: Do Local Economic Conditions Influence FOMC Votes?," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 268-284, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:7:y:2025:i:2:p:268-84
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20240184
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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