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The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases

Author

Listed:
  • Caroline M. Paulson
  • Aditi Poduri
  • Aayush Singh
  • Mauricio Ulate

Abstract

Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a resulting drop in overall U.S. employment, although manufacturing employment increases. Results also indicate a decline in overall real income for the United States of around 0.4%, although this number masks important variation across U.S. states.

Suggested Citation

  • Caroline M. Paulson & Aditi Poduri & Aayush Singh & Mauricio Ulate, 2025. "The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(16), pages 1-5, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:101257
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2023. "Supply Chain Disruptions, Trade Costs, and Labor Markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(02), pages 1-5, January.
    2. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2025. "The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 33792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Naomi Halbersleben & Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2025. "The Economic Effects of Tariffs," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(29), pages 1-6, November.

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