IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pui/dpaper/244.html

Fast and Furious: Daily Export Responses to the Liberation Day Tariff Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Jettawat Pattararangrong
  • Wisarut Suwanprasert

Abstract

How rapidly can firms re-time international shipments when faced with sudden changes in trade policy? We provide new evidence on this high-frequency adjustment margin using the United States’ Liberation Day tariffs (LDT) as an unexpected policy shock, together with confidential daily customs data from Thailand. Our identification strategy exploits a novel shift–share exposure measure, the "LDT gap," which captures product-level variation at the HS6 level in relative tariff increases faced by Thai exporters. We find that exporters adjust within days: products with higher LDT gaps experience increases in export values and quantities, with no statistically significant change in export prices, and these responses are mainly concentrated in the announcement period. The effects are stronger for agricultural than for manufacturing products. Across product use categories, the strongest responses are observed among consumer goods. The paper provides the first daily-frequency evidence on rapid shipment reallocation under sudden policy shocks and introduces a transparent exposure measure for identifying heterogeneous effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Jettawat Pattararangrong & Wisarut Suwanprasert, 2025. "Fast and Furious: Daily Export Responses to the Liberation Day Tariff Shock," PIER Discussion Papers 244, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Mar 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:244
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.pier.or.th/files/dp/pier_dp_244.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Kaczmarek, Tomasz & Demir, Ender & Rouatbi, Wael & Zaremba, Adam, 2025. "Tariffs announcement as a global stress test: Early stock market reactions to U.S. protectionism," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2022. "Modeling semiconductor export restrictions and the US-China trade conflict," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2022, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    3. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2018. "China's Export Surge and the New Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 103970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2020.
    4. Yiping Sun & Xiangyi Li & Tengyuan Zhang & Jiawei Fu, 2022. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Lin, Jenny X. & Lincoln, William F., 2017. "Pirate's treasure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 235-245.
    6. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2020. "The impact of trade policy uncertainty shocks on the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 100832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hong, T., 2021. "Revisiting the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2174, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Chen, Zhiyuan & Wang, Zhihao & Zhu, Ting & Gu, Kejian & Tang, Ying, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty and market diversification by risk-averse firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Xie, Yutang & Cao, Yujia & Li, Xiaotao, 2023. "The importance of trade policy uncertainty to energy consumption in a changing world," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    12. Eissa, Mohamed Abdelaziz & Al Refai, Hisham & Chortareas, Georgios, 2025. "Climate policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, oil volatility, and global food price volatility: A time-varying analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Gustavo de Souza & Naiyuan Hu & Haishi Li & Yuan Mei, 2023. "(Trade) War and Peace: How to Impose International Trade Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 10477, CESifo.
    14. Zhou, Kexuan & Kumar, Sanjay & Yu, Linhui & Jiang, Xinlin, 2021. "The economic policy uncertainty and the choice of entry mode of outward foreign direct investment: Cross-border M&A or Greenfield Investment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    16. Facchini, Giovanni & Liu, Maggie Y. & Mayda, Anna Maria & Zhou, Minghai, 2019. "China's “Great Migration”: The impact of the reduction in trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 126-144.
    17. Ren, Yinghua & Tan, Anqi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhao, Wanru, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive nonlinear risk spillover in the commodity futures market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    18. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Rui Mano, 2019. "Trade Wars and Trade Deals: Estimated Effects using a Multi-Sector Model," IMF Working Papers 2019/143, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pui:dpaper:244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pierbth.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.